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welcome to the restus politics with me alist Campbell and me Rory Stewart now Rory we've been trying for a couple of days now to get together and do something on what's been happening in
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Israel and Gaza and we put out a a question to listeners this morning saying what would you like to ask us about what's happening in the Middle East right now and I can tell you the
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single most asked question was asking Rory for one of his explainers now so take us from the beginning of time to where we are now in two minutes
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yeah and with without getting in trouble from every side well that is the problem you know I've noticed that already I've been Twitter is the worst place in the world to debate this issue I've discovered that which is why I've
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stopped debating it on there it's virtually impossible to say anything that is nuanced that is not black and white about this situation and the truth is as you know as we'll hear from you
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very very shortly you need a bit of nuance in this because it is so steeped and difficult history and very very complicated so why don't you just try and give us a bit of a a background I'll give it a go and with with apologies to
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people because there's a lot of sensitivities here so essentially um going back 3,000 years state of Israel was um dominated by a Jewish
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community and they were displaced just under 2,000 years ago basically by the Romans and uh large Jewish communities formed then in places like Iraq and
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Yemen but but also in in Europe central eastern Europe and in Spain and Portugal and in many other places too the um and then at the beginning of the 20th
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century end of the 19th beginning of 20th century there was the beginnings of a Zionist movement pushing for a Homeland for the Jewish people driven by the fact that Jews had experienced
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appalling discrimination and brutal pgms a murder murderous uh attacks on them over many many hundreds of years but mounting particularly in central eastern Europe in the late 19th
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century the British got behind this with a Baler declaration about the time of the first world war and there was increasing Jewish uh movement back to the former
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state of Israel but of course during the nearly 2,000 years this had become very much a place dominated by Arab Muslim communities so the Jews were moving back
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into a a populated place and the British initially after the first world war set up a mandate where they were trying to balance uh the interests of Arabs and Jews found
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themselves in the middle of an increasing Civil War and the the Brits were actually uh targets of terrorist attacks from both Arabs and and Jews and
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then of course the defining horror of the second world war the Holocaust in which 6 million European Jews are killed and which absolutely demonstrates to the
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world the extremity of the threat that Jews face and the requirement for a Jewish homeland which then drives into large numbers of Jews moving to
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Palestine after the war and in 1948 led by David Boran a the setting up of the state of Israel driven by actually uh an Israeli military assault
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that takes a lot of the territory previously held by Arab communities and involves many many Arabs being displaced from their homes and that state of Israel that 1948 state is then recognized largely by the International
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Community although not by many Palestinians and that remains the situation till 1967 when it then faces a simultaneous attack from Egypt Syria and then belatedly
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Jordan after the second world war Britain gave up the Mandate and the Jews in Israel fought to create a state which they created in
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1948 and that state involved the Christian that state involved the displacement of quite a lot of the Arab Palestinian communities who were living in those areas that state was then recognized by the United Nations and
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then in 1967 there was an attack on Israel by Egypt uh Syria and belatedly Jordan and on the 1967 war Israel won a very very
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rapid Victory about six days and it took a lot of territory which was outside the 1948 borders so it took Gaza which we're going to be talking about today it took the West Bank which had previously been
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controlled by Jordan Gaza had previously been controlled by Egypt and just so we're clear to that that is why when people talk about the occupied uh Palestinian territories that is what they're talking about absolutely
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when when most people talk about the occupied Palestinian territories they're talking about those bits that were taken by Israel after 1967 now there's a detail here which is that there are also parts of the Palestinian movement who
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reject the original state of Israel and the 1948 borders but broadly speaking when people talk about the occupied Palestinian territories they're talking about these areas there was then another War um which is important to us because it was the anniversary of that war that
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triggered these recent attacks almost exactly 50 years ago a yum kipor War where there was another attack which Israel again uh beat off but with much more difficulty um fast
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forward and in the 1990s and we're now coming into stuff that you you began to connect with person in your professional life there were then a series of peace talks uh particularly around Oslo and
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the conclusion of Oslo was that territories would be divided into categories a b and c so there would be Palestinian territories there would be territories under mix control and C which were going to be Israeli
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territories and the idea was to push ahead with a two-state solution a Palestinian Authority emerged on the West Bank with its capital at
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ramala and in Gaza another form of Palestinian Authority emerged and the challenge there was that these territories are not contiguous they didn't form a joined up country in fact
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increasingly because of Israeli settlers who've been putting uh houses and settlements in beyond the 1967 boundaries it actually is a series of
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tiny enclaves over a 100 little enclaves um divided by checkpoints and walls fast forward to um 2004 2005 and
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Israel withdraws from Gaza and that's the first big move they actually remove a few thousand settlers who are there forcibly remove a few thousand settlers and hand it over to Palestinian control
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not long after that happens a movement called hammer which is a much more radical islamist group much more strongly associated with terrorism takes over the Gaza Strip
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which is this bit that runs basically from Egypt along the coast along the edge of Israel and the Palestinians are then divided between this Hamas controlled area which
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is the Gaza Strip and the rest which is controlled by the former P the fata government uh then there were FAS there were Israeli attacks both uh fights in
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reprisal against attacks from Hamas AR Gaza reprisals about attacks from hisbah which is another group which is based in southern Lebanon and fast forward to where we
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were about a week ago and a week ago Jake Sullivan the US National Security adviser was on the record saying the Middle East had never been so peaceful and the reason I think he thought that is that Israel had
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developed a special missile protection shield which meant it was increasingly difficult for these Palestinian groups to fire either from hisbah Hammer's
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Rockets into Israel and do damage there hadn't been that number of uh attacks and most of the focus in Israel as we picked up on the Pod over the last few months has actually been not about
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palestin it's been an internal Israeli fight between liberals and conservatives to do with challenging the way in which the Israeli government is moving in a populist Direction has brought in far-right people like a man called
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smotrich the finance minister pushing to overturn the independent Judiciary in Israel and that was broadly the situation um when on early Saturday morning the attack started I'll stop
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there that was a very long explainer well I thought it was a very very good explainer um and there will doubtless be some people who will object to some exclusions and some inclusions and I'm afraid that's the
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that's the nature of what we're talking about so um look I I don't want to ventriloquize for people but broadly speaking um if you want to see the view of I suppose a pretty middleof the road
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Palestinian politician uh there is a great interview which you'll will share in the links which has just been done on CNN 9 Minute interview uh in which a fata politician
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gives his views on the situation but broadly speaking from the Palestinian point of view they would say yes there's been a terrorist attack and most of them would say they would not in any way condone the killing of
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civilians and then the what would then happen is they would then say you need to understand that Gaza is from their point of view a prison camp with really no ability from people to go in and out
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it's a humanitarian disaster where people lack basic supplies and that at the root of this violence is an Israeli occup ation which Palestinians will then
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explain and you'll see it better if you're interested in this interview on CNN explains involve breaking tan territory into tiny enclaves checkpoints and what they experience as an aparte
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State and they call it an aparte State because they feel that they are not being given full civil and Democratic rights and if they were given full civil and Democratic rights the situation would be very different that's the Palestinian point of view the Israeli
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point of view there are many Israeli points of view but they would start by saying listen understand that these are very serious enemies out there that Hamas back in the
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1990s had a founding Charter dedicated to the complete elimination of the state of Israel that states like Iran were committed to the elimination state of Israel that the 67 War and the Yum kipor War were designed basically to wipe them
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off the face of the map that they feel that they have been uh marginalized and um attacked unfairly at United Nations forums for decades while other countries like China and Zimbabwe and
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Cuba haven't been attacked in the same way they feel it's an existential threat they would emphasize that the isra Army warns civilians before it attacks
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buildings uh they will emphasize and again there are many different views on this 1967 territory but some Israelis would say the territory they took is essenti for protection of the state of Israel that the Goan Heights for example
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were artillery positions from which the syrians reigned Rockets down on them and that Israel's right to defend itself involves being very realistic about the significant threat that Palestinians
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pose um so somewhere uh there are those two positions and there will be 500 other positions we look forward to the conversation just on Oslo by the way the we had lots and lots of questions as I
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say but one of them was about good books to read and there is actually there was a brilliant play about the Oslo Accords and I think from memory it was called Oso it was by somebody called Taylor but it it was published as a book and it's
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it's worth um it's worth getting hold of that absolutely amazing play and it's one of those plays that you can read and get a sense of the drama and just before we go on to What's Happening Now coincidentally and I didn't know
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that Jake Sullivan had said that um that is pretty remarkable and just before these attacks literally the day before the the latest attacks by Hamas which
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have been bigger and more violent and more deadly than anything we've seen from them before and the anything the Israelis have endured before which is why they're calling it 911 plus Pearl Harbor in
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one um but our good friend the new European had a five-page spread in last week's paper called 18 days that shook the World about the yam kapor war that
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you mentioned and I think you're right that that was one of the the key moments in the history when you said there Rory about the people feeling that this was had never been safer and that is Israel felt
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secure when there finally was a ceasefire after this um the after the yapor war which went on for 18 days there was little rejoicing in Israel the failure to foresee the attack was the
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greatest failure in Israel is history one analyst analyst blamed arrogance lack of understanding of the Abundant intelligence and disregard for the enemy the military historian John Hughes
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Wilson described it as a classic example of confusing political aspirations with hard fact for good or ill Israel would never make the same mistakes again and here we are with and and here again so
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to remind people of what actually happened so 6:30 in the morning Hamas out of Gaza which is this Coastal strip adjoining Egypt fired perhaps 5,000 Rockets the Israelis
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are saying 2,500 rockets and then about an hour later they tore through the barriers through the fences that divide Gaza from Israel some coming in from boat one person coming in from Air
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bulldozers ripping down the eras Crossing and simultaneously drove ins some cases 20 30 kilm into
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Israel and uh began the most violent series of terrorist attacks some of them were directed against military targets so you'll see images of commanders
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Israeli commanders being um one of them I think in his box of shorts being kidnapped and taken into a car um tanks being seized uh they have to being hit
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by drones and Gaza Gaza divisional headquarters being stormed and the zikim base so it you know a big military frontal attack but also the Real Horror at the center
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of things which people will have focused on which was that there was a a festival taking place and people have been dancing up all night and 7:30 in the morning sun was Rising just coming to the end of the festival and into the
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middle of the final stages came a group of terrorists on bikes and trucks and began opening fire on the crowd killed something like it's difficult to know
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250 260 people um and then went back across the border taking over 160 hostages and some of the fighters remained on the ground
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continued to fight holding police stations um in Border towns uh the Israeli military then mounted a Counter Strike which has probably killed about 400 people
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so far um and I mean I think that the thing to to say Obviously before we go any further on this is that hamus is a terrorist oper organization very clear terrorist organization this isn't the
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first time they've done this some people are saying you know why did they hit women and children the truth of the matter is that hamus has been behind indiscriminate suicide bomb attacks um they had an explicit policy
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of targeting civilians um since since the mid 1990s and they are recognized as a terrorist organization by the EU by the US and actually much more recently by
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the UK 2022 I think and Australia 2023 um but much of the rest of the world does not recognize hamus as a terrorist organization they treat them as the legitimate government because
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they're the the elected government um in in the Gaza Strip over to you no I I think what we're seeing is beyond anything that we've SE that the
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the Israeli people have seen as you say within the Palestinian context um there has been a lot of Bloodshed there's been a lot of anger it's been building I do think that once
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this thing hopefully calms down hopefully settles down though I think it could be I think this could be a long long long time but there are some massive questions for the Israelis they have perhaps the most most vaunted
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intelligence agency in the world um they really will be asking themselves some very very hard questions about as to how this happened because when you watched the scenes that you
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described there with the the fences being attacked with people arriving on hand gliders with the the levels of Armory that were available it seems to me remarkable that the Israelis literally did not seem to
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have a whiff of this um or if they did they were certainly not very well prepared and I think what's happening now quite rightly there's been
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massive uh widespread condemnation a little a little bit like Ukraine though we should be careful not to imagine that it's Universal uh I think we saw in the debate at the United Nations last night
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that the the the the straight divide in that body was on display again but generally a sense of absolute outrage and condemnation and support certainly in most of the countries that where most
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of our listeners are support for Israel's rights to defend itself but now um slightly into unknown territory because the hostages which we should
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with taking of Civilian hostages taking any hostages in this situation of War crime which they that does complicate things further um a lot of talk already about whether that there will be a
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ground offensive Byers Israel into Gaza which is one of the most densely populated places on Earth by the way yeah 2 million people in in a strip roughly 25 miles long very narrow strip
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of land um so the fear that there must be in that place uh will be horrendous and meanwhile Jews around the world I mean
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this is this was brought home to me in the very calm and peaceful setting of of my morning swim this morning talking to some Jewish people who are regular swimmers there who are feeling that
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sense of fear anxiety real concern and Dread about what about what's happening not not because they know people there yeah and was reason also not just because the horror coming out of Israel but also
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because an Egyptian policeman opened fire and killed two Israeli tourists after this um little bit on Gaza so hamus is is a something that
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emerged from the Muslim Brotherhood and different to the pl and fat it was from its beginning an islamist organization very much sort of I'm not I mean it's a misleading way to
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put it but it's in the broad tradition of the Muslim Brotherhood and even the Taliban it's a group that very much Prides itself on religion it's has very conservative
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social codes but it's not imposing them entirely I mean there's been some examples of it but it's not legally imposing them on the population there their brand was being cleaner less corrupt than the previous
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government but from the moment they've taken over they have faced a blockade so although Israel withdrew from Gaza it controls six out of the seven of the border crossings it
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controls all the air access and sea access to Gaza it provides all the electricity all the water supply all the Telecommunications for Gaza and the Israeli Army Reserves the right
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to enter um Gaza whenever it feels it has a security reason to do so the trade from Gaza the economy of Gaza really collapsed after these blockades were put in place because
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people didn't want to do business with a terrorist group it's kept afloat with support from in different ways turkey catar and uh Iran Iran putting the
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support more into the military attacks katar very focused on humanitarian uh support for people it's I think 160th poorest country in the world now in GDP
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per capita you know real shortage of water supply sewage and and one of the questions going forward is I suppose two questions one of them is is your point about the potential Israeli response
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inside Gaza because it's not going to be possible for Israel as it were to reoccupy Gaza if you think about the fighting mosul where the Iraqi Army tried to retake mosul from the Islamic
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State that was a multi-year operation that involved destroying most of the city and I don't think we should be expecting Israel to be attempting to try to do house toh house fighting in a
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place of 2.2 million people but there's going to be a lot of pressure now being put by Israel on countries to cease all forms of support for Gaza but that of course will also mean that you're on
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this knife Edge between providing support development support which keeps the hamus government alive but also preventing a humanitarian catastrophe so Qatar is a very odd example of this Qatar is criticized Often by Israeli
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politicians for by providing support to Gaza but then often says that behind closed doors they're encouraged to continue to provide support to Gaza by factions within Israeli government because they don't want a humanitarian
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crisis there and on the on the point of the humanitarian crisis couple of points first of all when when the Israelis are saying to the people in Gaza um essentially advising
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them to to move out um it's very very hard to know where they go in such a densely populated place where they can't come and go freely and the focus on the Middle East
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and the the Israel Palestine question has been negligible from a time when it used to be one of the most dominant issues of global debate yeah I think a lot of things changed is it so the assassination of yek Rabin who'd Been
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instrumental in bring together the oso Accord so this actually very famous Israeli General kind of national hero who made a very radical step to try to reach out towards peace with
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Palestinians and was then assassinated by uh a extreme extremist Jewish nationalist who was against him um then led to a period where the Israel left
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largely vanished and a lot of the politics we've been talking about in Israel reflects the fact that the Palestinians supporting two states Solutions supporting Israeli left
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largely lost confidence partly because of that partly because they felt that Palestinians weren't making the progress that they were hoping for partly because the Palestinian Authority has proved to be very useless and corrupt and has lost
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a lot of support but it's also that as you say as Israel's become economically more and more powerful and Saudi and UAE and others have developed confidence Trump drove through the
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Abraham Accords which effectively normalized relations between Israel and some of the key Gulf States meaning that the Palestinians had very much been marginalized and definitely as alist
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Bert says you know when I was in Jordan there was a palpable sense that people felt it no longer was anything that anyone was concentrating on and the two-state solution felt increasingly
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implausible it's more and more difficult to imagine that it would ever happen partly because these figures like smartr benav who are the farri um Israelis uh you know made very very
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explicit statements about essentially providing no acknowledgement for the Palestinian territories at all I mean smotrich was on the record saying that he wanted to retake those territories and the Palestinians would have to
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either be subjugated or leave or be killed um and this was part of of uh the Coalition I mean you guy was the Finance Minister who who was saying this so I think there are two things that we maybe
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before we close that we need to look at one of them is what does this mean to internal Israeli politics and what does it mean to the international picture I think internal Israeli politics there's going to be two
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opposing tensions one of them is it will strengthen some people on the right who will say we always told you you needed to be tougher on the Palestinians look at this Hamas is revealed as they always
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have been as terrorists dedicated to the complete extinction of the state of Israel we need to go much much harder and that will undermine some of the voices uh pushing for peace and some of
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the remaining voices on the Israeli left on the other hand it's an incredible humiliation of the Israeli government a total intelligence failure and there will be a push for a national Unity government to say well let's bring in a
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broader Coalition get rid of the farri right get Israel together again very important to mobilize the reservists who were essentially on strike because they were so horrified by the judicial reforms um and that then moves us the
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international pit and I think internationally there are going to be two things we have to watch one of them is that Iran is very closely associated with this Hamas attack and is boasting about the fact that
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Ayah met with the leader of Hamas um that Iranian funding is going in so you can expect a risk of the Israeli government and others taking retary action against
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Iran you can also see this as a deliberate attempt to break the talks that were going on between Saudi and Israel that Hamas has done it in order to deepen the division again within the
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Middle East and draw attention in the most horrifying way through this terrorist attack to the ongoing situation and hope that that begins to move people more into talks again there's an awful lot of stuff in harat's
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newspaper one of the main Israeli dailies today that is very very very critical of of Netanyahu the sense that the Israeli government he's he's had to essentially do a deal with people even
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well to the right of him to form the government that he did and this has been so far down their list of priorities that you do sort of have the sense that the for the for the more
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militant end of the Palestinian population that that they can see no no way out and that is not by the way I can even as I say those words I can I can feel people go to their tweets to say
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this is attempting to justify it doesn't justify it in any way at all but I think that unless what what has happened the reason why Hamas became as powerful as they did within the West Bank was
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because they felt that the Palestinian Authority Under the fataa party would were going nowhere were giving a lot recognition of Israel Etc without getting anything in return and that that
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having been done that there they saw no sense of progress at all not I'm not talking about progress towards a two-state solution I'm talking about progress in any shape or form in the reality of
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their daily lives and that is not going to be addressed between this government uh and the Palestinians it will for now be entirely seen I suspect as a security
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situation but at some point there has to be a return to a political process otherwise this thing just goes round and round and round and we'll be back in a few years talking about another war and giving another name and and I think at
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the heart of it is something you was was right at the center of your working life in Ireland which is that understandably Israelis look at Hamas and they say here is a murderous
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Bruce Hall terrorist group that has just gone into the middle of a music festival and moaned down 2060 people and is and his rhetoric is effectively about extinguishing the
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state of Israel I mean it's changed it it now talks about a right of return but there is deep deep anti itic rhetoric hate speech coming out of Hamas and all sort of thing um and that therefore feels to
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many many Israelis as though it's impossible to imagine any kind of conversation with them at all as as I did you know I felt very much with the IRA that you know the idea of talking to
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people who seemed in the 80s to be absolutely committed to driving the British entirely out of Ireland who were killing innocent civilians in hotel bombings seemed incomprehensible and
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horrible trth yeah go on there's a question here James M June do you think that the Israel Palestine scenario is more complex than the troubles in Northern Ireland does the fact that it shares a border with other Islamic Nations and isn't geographically
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isolated mean that a good Friday start agreement will always be unattainable I mean there's a couple of things I'd say to that the first is that the Good Friday agreement felt unattainable for a long long time I mentioned to you
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earlier recently watching Once Upon a Time in Northern Ireland listening to the people telling their stories they felt it was unattainable but it happened so right now today in the middle of October
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2023 a two-state solution and I I saw David Lamy this morning at the conference labor Party Conference he made his speech and absolutely unequivocal support for Israel but also saying that we have to keep having hope
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that there can one day be a two-state solution where Israelis and Palestinians can live side by side in peace in the current contest that's sounds almost an absurd thing to say but you have to hang on to that hope and you can only get
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there ultimately through some sort of political process and the reason why I mean the the the level of planning that must have gone into this operation and whether where they were getting their
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arms from and whether Iran was directly supplying and and all that stuff we don't know um but in a way I think what they're may be trying to do a bit like when excuse me when the
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IRA sort of had the Judgment they they they said to themselves that we can bomb away all we want in Northern Ireland uh but unless we actually take these bombs to the the British Mainland we're not
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going to inject ourselves into this process uh now so I'm I guess I'm throwing this one back to you do you think that part of what's going on is that Hamas are trying to get into the
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bigger picture start to be considered one of the players in finding some sort of resolution to this or are they so Hardline militant Terror organization that there is no way that this is going
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to end other than with a bloody long battle between them and the Israelis yeah and the truth is of course that like all these groups there all those things there are appear to be or have
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been in the past citing more moderate factions of Hamas and you know negotiators have dealt with them and talked to them and that's of the reasons why Norway for example I think has refused to condemn hamus as a terrorist
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organization and then there are Hamas Deputy ministers on record spreading blood lials about Jews and claiming they sort of mashed up you know Christian babies into mats of biscuits and I mean
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it's um so it's a a horrifying mixture of extreme terrorists with murderous intent and people who are trying to imagine some
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kind of political settlement and return to 1967 borders and all this kind of thing but the standoff in the end if I sort of go back to the central explainer is that there are two completely
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irreconcilable at the moment it feels like visions of what's going on for Hammer many Palestinians they want an absolute return to the 1967 borders and the truth is that there has
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been a lot of Israeli settlement Beyond the Edge of the 1967 borders and no Israeli government is currently remotely considering removing all those communities on the on the contrary they've been develop they've been adding
00:34:36
to it exactly right well well I think you explained that very very well um I I actually came off Twitter when for just
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because it's uh it's impossible it's like it should be possible to condemn unequivocally what has happened whilst at the same time worrying about the
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nature of the Israeli government worrying about the fate of innocent children and others who have had a hellish life anyway now in one of the most densely populated areas of the
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world fearing what is about to hit them whilst at the same time only beginning to imagine the utter horror if you had been at that festival or a related to somebody who was at that
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festival or you're related to somebody who's been taken hostage but the way our debate polarizes so instantly around anything now it was almost like you know
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well you're either 100% this side 100% that side and at the moment you have to be 100% on on the side of of Israel and ultimately we've got to get to a place
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where there's a the reestablishment of a a serious grownup political process where major world powers are engaged and involved and put in the hours and the effort to try to get people to to
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coexist otherwise we've had it well thank you very much and I I know that listeners will have very strong opinions and if you want to get in touch do by all means please send us your tweets or go to the restus
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