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there's something that's emerging right now that we need to talk about and yes it's quite shocking the thing is Agi there's only
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one rule to remember don't panic let's go down this rabbit hole and see how far it goes by now you've probably seen open ai's latest release Sora the text to
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video AI generation platform it's very cool a lot of people are very impressed with the lifelike images that it can produce but a lot of people are missing what this thing is what it
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represents recently there's been a lot of talk about AGI artificial general intelligence when Sam Alman started talking about AGI he was mocked people said it wasn't serious to talk about
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building AGI after they released Chad GPT people no longer mocked him we have been a misunderstood and badly mocked orc for a long time like when we started we like announced the or at the end of
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2015 I remember at the time a eminent AI scientist at a large industrial AI lab was like dming individual reporters being like you know these people aren't very good and it's ridiculous to talk
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about AGI and I can't believe you're giving them time of day and it's like that was the level of like pettiness and ranker in the field at a new group of people saying we're going to try to build AGI so open Ai and Deep Mind was a small collection of folks who were brave
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enough to talk about AGI in the face of mockery we don't get mocked as much now don't get mocked as much now more people believe that yeah maybe we'll see AGI in the upcoming decades but here's the
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thing everyone including the people that study the stuff keeps getting thrown by the exponential growth by the compounding we're beginning to hit the second half of the
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chessboard and things are about to get a little bit nutty let's Dive In there's this expression the second half of the chessboard now the story about the second half of the chess board that the
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inventor of Chess presented His Brilliant creation to a grateful Indian king the king asked what was the desired reward the inventor of Chess asked for something very simple for a grain of rice to be placed on the first Square
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then Double Down amount on the second square and sew until every Square was covered so basically goes 1 2 4 8 16 etc etc doubling each and every legal time
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now this might not seem like a lot is just a few grains of rice but where this exponential growth where this compounding gets really hairy is in the second half of the chessboard it's like
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a thousand times how much rice is produced in the world like today in modern times but the point is it was way above anything that the king could have paid the point of all this is that AI
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progress is entering the second half of the chessboard it gets really hard toed predict what that looks like and how it will unfold a lot of people are asking when will AGI be here I don't like that
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question here's why this was from the blog wait but why from 2015 so a while ago and it had this excellent demonstration of how AI would look like when it arrived so just pretend that
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sign says AGI and this is the AGI train station right and here everybody standing around wondering when will the AGI train get here will it be here in 7
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months or 12 months or 5 years because we're noticing some signs that it's coming hey look AGI is arriving right we're seeing it off in a distance Yonder so when is it going to pull into the
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station so that we can greet it and see what it looks like well here's the thing it's coming fast and now it's gone did you miss it here's another a chart that kind of shows you how it's going to happen so this is the highest
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Intelligence on Earth right assuming this is like from the beginning of time so slowly living forms are getting smarter smarter smarter and here's the trip wi this is where we create something like self-improving Ai and
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whoosh it's a vertical line so Tim Urban was the person that runs this blog weigh by why I believe he has a book out now apparently Elon Musk is a big fan of this blog he's tweeted about it in the past and so keep in mind so this blog
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post is from 2015 I believe right around the time that open AI was just opening into doors and being mocked for working on AGI building AGI and so back then the
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median expert prediction for AGI was 2040 and Asi artificial super intelligence was 2060 here's Kathy Wood of AR envest along with some of her analysts that work on this stuff this is
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what they've predicted so here's the chart of when experts believe we will achieve General artificial intelligence you know and how that changed in 2019 you know we thought it was 50 years away
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a year later 34 years away a year later 18 years away a year later we thought it was 8 years away and So based on this their forecast was that you know by 2030 about 6 years from now we're going to
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have AGI however progress was so much faster that there was a forecast error and assuming that it continues in this way we're going to have AGI by 2026 2 years from now and all the other papers that we covered here kind of say the
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same thing all of the experts keep getting surprised by the rapid acceleration of AI so 7 years ago Sam Alman was mocked for saying they're building AGI now it's
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not crazy to say that it's going to be here soon when exactly well it doesn't matter This Is Us and the next moment it'll pass whatever metric we choose to measure AGI by before the end of the
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video I'll even show you why there's a chance that it has already been achieved it just hasn't been distributed in my previous video video we went over something that Dr Jim fan the senior research scientist at Nvidia what he
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said the point was that this video generation model it's learning physics its ability to simulate physics is an emerging property as we put in more data
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and we scale up the resources these abilities emerge they start existing more data and more compute translates into these digital brains being able to
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sort implicitly acquire new skills they learn to do stuff that we don't teach it and whenever I post a video talking about this there's always a vocal minority in the comment section yelling that that this can't possibly be true
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and we're just imagining things none of this is happening Etc but it is rapidly becoming the view that more and more people have opening ey is talking about it more openly they're not talking about S as a little video generator or a
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picture generator they're talking about it as a World simulator they're saying this is a promising path towards building general purpose simulators of the physical world source serves as a foundation for models that can
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understand and simulate the real world a capability We Believe will be an important milestone for achieving AGI now let's pivot to open AI for just a second here how is open AI building AGI
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is Chad PT the thing that will become AGI is Sora the thing that will become AGI well not quite think of AGI and eventually ASI the super intelligent
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form of AGI as a collection of pieces each with its own sort of power and abilities but when put together become AGI the big thing so what are those
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pieces well we now know Sora the world simulator we know Chad GPT the fastest growing app of all time they can now see he and speak and is in and of itself a
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powerful form of AI what are the other pieces well one of them is Agents Sam Alin kind of hinted at this in the the developer conference in November actually I don't know if he was hinting
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at that it was kind of vague but I think myself and a lot of other people assumed that's what he was talking about autonomous AI agents but these new leaks kind of confirmed that we were all kind of right in assuming that because it
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seems like open AI is rapidly moving towards developing autonomous AI agents so Sam Alman has privately called the next iteration of Chad GPT a super smart personal assistant for work that agent
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will take over people's computers and basically do a lot of the tasks for them it will be like an operating system that does things for you so instead of clicking on things or typing something in you will communicate with the agent
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in you know whatever form that takes with voice or or typing and it will then go and do the things that you request to do it'll be able to do it autonomously we've tested a few of these AI agents on
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this channel you give it some high level task it thinks about it breaks it up into subtasks and then starts carrying those out and openi isn't the only one Google CEO sunpi said the latest technology allows us to allows us to act
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more like an agent over time there are other companies that are doing the same thing the rabbit R1 devices doing something similar there's mulon which we' covered here there's open interpreter there's self operating
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computer I believe it's called there's a bunch of them that are trying to do this all right so we have Chad GPT we have Sora we have agent what else is there well open ey develops web search product in challenge to Google so we're not sure
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if that search product is separate from J GPT or part of Chad GPT so let's say search is the left leg of the Forbidden one or AGI you know what else is there well the massive massive massive amount
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of chips of AI chips of Compu cute of gpus or tpus or whatever other processors that we need to train these AI models and run inference inference meaning getting the outputs the
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predictions that we're looking for so Alman has already had a lot of interest from Middle East funds as well as a lot of the Chinese money that flowed into it the US government one of the agencies did I Believe cancelled and reversed one
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of the deals that they've had for chips made by rain neuromorphic that was uh in San Francisco but it looks like Sam Altman is not giving up so now he's asking the Biden Administration for approval so Sam Alman
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is it said that he's looking for $7 trillion funding to build the infrastructure to produce these chips that are needed so that's $7 trillion in funding actually scratch that uh it's now eight but the point is we need a lot
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of money to build these factories to produce the required amount of chips that'll be able to power everything that we want AGI to do now once we have all the pieces in place once we have have the the GPT and the Sora and the dolly
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and the search and the autonomous agents and all the chips apparently there's also a music/ sound generation thing that's not released yet but that's coming soon I actually got Early Access
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to this Sora plus Audio model and uh here's some early results so this is two golden retrievers podcasting on top of a mountain here's what that sounds like
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so I got to say not bad I expect them to start climbing the iTunes podcasting rankings very rapidly but the point that I'm trying to make is this thing that we think of as AGI is likely going to be a
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multi-part thing each with its own effects each with its own strengths that when combined becomes this thing that is now able to do most of human jobs for
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example coding assistants are already helping coders work faster replacing some of the work they have to do Google quietly launches internal AI model named Goose to help employees write code
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faster leaked documents show so models like GPT will help coding if you've played around with code interpreter AKA Advanced data analytics a lot of that is going to really help with well data
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analytics a lot of things that we used to have Alys 4 can now be done with few sentences they can go through Excel sheets organize it how you want to display various charts Etc a lot of the
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coding jobs a lot of the data analysis jobs a lot of the writing jobs like that part replaces a lot of the people that that's doing that sort of work next Sora
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Sora produces videos and images Etc so think about who does that displace what kind of skills and people and work environments does that displace so take a look at something like this so let's say you wanted to shoot something in
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Tokyo what do you do well you had to fly over there or hire somebody on location to shoot you would need the actors the editors the photographers SL camera
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operators but not only that because you also need all the people that produce the equipment the people that produce the cameras the lighting equipment the
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microphones the storage discs for things like this you needed to hire these special effects creators for movies so they can help you produce visually stunning effects like this if you wanted to do something like this that's uh
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macro photography this is not really macro photography there's another better example where it's like zoomed in on someone's eye you know you need special lenses for that special glass that has
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to be made to create those lenses you need people to be able to shoot that kind of detail that macro photography if we're able to just generate images that are similar to that all those jobs are
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affected the next part is agents and agents are going to be everything that you need to that's going to be kind of like your assistance anything you need them to answer emails or schedule
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appointments do your research online for you complete whatever task you need with Excel just anything where you need stuff actually done in the sort of in the digital world right and potentially you
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know at some point also over the phone so open AI has their whisper model that's another part of this so when you talk to to it it's able to transcribe what you're saying through words so then GPT 4 can then understand what you're
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saying so if you wanted your agent to call a restaurant and for example make a reservation for you you know that would be something like an agent plus GPT right Chad GPT plus something like
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whisper that's able to transcribe it and then right now we'd have to use 11 labs to make the voice right to make it sound like a human being is saying so as Chad GPT outputs the text it gets transcribed
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into an AI voice but again as I've mentioned before it sounds like open AI has that cooking behind the scenes that voice model that Audio model the preview that I gave you that was just me
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breathing into your microphone I hope that was uh I hope that that comes across okay and of course the chips the gpus that are needed that's like the last piece I don't even know if that's necessarily like you would think of that
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as a piece of AGI or does that just increase the scale but the point point is this here's how Stuff scales when we increase the compute from just nonsense you know if we increase it 4X it's it's
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better I mean that's looking pretty good to really lifelike when you bump it up even further just giving it more processing power more chips more compute
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that by itself scales up incredibly effective so I guess computer chips you could think of it as a part of it or more just like a the thing that helps it scale depending on how you want to think about this but the point is when you
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have all these little pieces on the board together the thing that emerges the thing that starts slowly floating through the portal well that's AGI that's the thing that will be able to
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think to learn to do to produce images and voices and understand all the images and videos that you give it to understand what you mean when you say things so when is that coming when are
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we going to have that well this is Jimmy apples we've mentioned them a few times on this channel before and as I've said before take everything here with a grain of salt Jimmy apples is what appears to
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be an open AI Insider somebody that knows quite a bit about what's happening at open AI who leaks this information in cryptic tweets every once in a while so again I'm not endorsing anything I'm not
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saying that this is true in fact if at some point this person is just completely wrong about something to or we completely can dismiss whatever he predicts I feel like my job would get a little bit easier but here's the problem
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he is eerily accurate which makes it very difficult to just completely dismiss everything that he's saying on this channel we're going to look at everything we're going to look at the the scientific papers the data and we're
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also going to look at the crazies at the conspiracy theorists this is going to be a full Spectrum AI channel so let's get started here's yum idiot I'm going to say and they're saying after Sora it
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became very difficult for me not to connect the dots and coming to the astounding conclusion that open AI already has a GI one dot is obviously the existence of apple and his leaks
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Apple being Jimmy apples and his leaks I'm curious if this is a typo or a clever play on words cuz these are leaks right but whatever Apple in his leaks so normal people think apple is just a
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legendary leaker but in my opinion he's a legendary Prophet revealing the Divine plans of God emperor that is s Sam Alman Apple scores very well March 14th gp4
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drop score he predicted that GOI and arais names score he predicted that that was confirmed by the information I believe whatever araus was araus is the
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alternate name for the planet in Dune the science fiction novel Dune that is now a movie on Netflix I actually never read Dune surprisingly it's one of the classic Sci-fi books I just recently got
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it and am going through it then they continue SF firing score this was the thing for me that truly solidified that what this guy was saying is likely has some grip on reality so this was October
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24th 2023 Jimmy app posts there's been a Vibe change at open Ai and we risk losing some key ride or die open AI employees so keep that in mind October 24th right so that's the post on October
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25th but Sam Alman was fired on November 17th almost a month later and Sam Alman didn't know about the firing normal employees did not know about the firing even Mir moradi didn't know about the
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firing until the day before the firing I believe the board plus Ilia Suk approached miror the day before I don't recall if it was the day before or just a few hours before but the point she she
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was the only one outside of the small group of the board members that knew about it uh with a bit of an advanced notice because she had to step in as interim CEO so Jimmy apples knew about the vibe change resulting in s's firing
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on October 25th so it looks like Jimmy apples leaked that there was a big fat release on February 15th he's saying he released it from an ALT an alternative account kind of a again this is why I say take everything here of a grain of
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salt because who knows what is happening but I'll cut to the chase Jimmy Apple is saying that openi has achieved AGI internally it will be released in 2025 in one year says he's looking for a nice
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Farm to relax on and what he wants to see from Big Labs is working on how to solve future job loss Jimmy reposted this I've been building autonomous agents for the last 8 months can confidently say that AGI is so much
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closer than anyone expects all you need is a cheap GPT 5 that can run locally wouldn't surprise me if open AI has already built this internally it's just not economically viable he's also reposting some papers some of which
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we've covered here in the channel that deal with agents autonomous agents so for example tensent has been has published multiple papers on autonomous AI agent one of them is multimodal Agents as smartphone users there is a
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lot of research about autonomous agents coming out of China a lot notice a lot of these uh things that he's hinting at this was before we had confirmation of
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open AI shifting their AI progress to kind of go going after autonomous agents all right so we've covered it in a different video Ben house an openi employee that's working on what we believe to be these autonomous agents
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said he's building what he thinks could be an industry defining zero to1 product that leverages the latest and greatest from our upcoming models and Peter Weller openai vice president of product
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said that this product that that Ben is working on will change everything so again as much as I would love to dismiss these Anonymous leaks whenever I look back over this stuff his stuff is like a
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month to two months leading whatever we see confirmation of here's December 8th 2023 open source Moe coming soon Moe is mixture of experts this is what we
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believe open AI used with great effect to run GPT 4 that's one of the reasons why it was so good here he's probably talking about m or mixl the French
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opensource model that is now competing with that's doing really well on a lot of task similar to GPT 4 I don't remember the exact rankings but it's definitely one of the very strong open-
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Source models that we know uses mixture of experts also the other big thing that completely got overshadowed by sora's release was Gemini 1.5 you probably
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completely ignored this because after like a few hours of this announcement opening eye drops Sora so this was completely overshadowed but it's much bigger than it appears Gemini 1.5 is a
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lot better than Gemini 1.0 the midsize model is as good as the ultra the previous the previous Google Gemini's large model it's faster cheaper to train
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it's better why well one of the reasons is it's with a new mixture of experts Moe architecture now you may be saying yeah it just seems like he's getting kind of Lucky at his predictions and he
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might not uh actually know what's happening well here's November 29th 2023 so what about 3 months ago so he's saying opening eye made the decision to do video generation back in March of
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this year so in 2023 will we see this next year as in right now yes we did reminder that they are still sitting on a new jukebox model that's that sound jukebox music thing that I gave you a
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preview of earlier and he's saying deep mine Runway paa and open source are going to force their hand now keep in mind that most open AI employees did not know about the video generation model
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they were briefed about it shortly before the release I read a lot about Ai and all the stuff people are talking about I can tell you no one was talking about a video generation model by open
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AI in 2023 and here November 2023 he's talking about a four Pete four Pete we'll come back to that in just a second so opening ey was sitting on Sora for almost a year GPT 4 finished training in
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July 2022 which by the way there's some papers out of Microsoft where you see some of the screenshots uh on those papers where they're testing GPT 4 and that was many months before it was
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released to the general public so it was finished training and it was already being tested by some sort of red teamers people that were testing it for safety as well as other organizations that are sort of close to open AI it was you know
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way before we got our hands on it and he's saying there's also GOI oracus qar foreat Orion sounding like far more advanced than GPT 4 so we've covered some of these so we've covered qar we've
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covered pretty much all of these the foreat I believe what he's referring to is Sam mman saying that four times now it has happened that he was in the room when sort of the frontier of our
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ignorance was pushed back and sort of our our knowledge of the world was pushed forward so was that the qar that was leaked uh I have no idea was it a separate project we don't know remember
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when gp4 dropped they did a formal demo day it was kind of a big deal when Sora released they did nothing as if it was nothing so special I think Sam Alman was online on Twitter for about I don't know like 30 minutes 40 minutes making random
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videos for people that would prompt him to do it so he would just kind of like run through Sora and put it out there and then he was like uh and now I got to go by so they dropped this thing and they were like ah this is nothing this is not a big deal they dropped the thing
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so close to AGI and called it nothing they are working on ASI alignment not AGI alignment so this begs the question what is Agi like what even is that well here's uh Google's take on it this is
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Google's levels of AGI so here's kind of like the level of AGI I and here's where we have narrow AGI so for example we have narrow AI that is superhuman means that it outperforms 100% of humans on
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these narrow tasks right of course if you think about something like Alpha fold Alpha go so the you know this narrow AI that just placed chess is
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superum level AI narrow AI it will beat any human at chess so that's narrow tasks and the general sort of side of that is you know anything basically most
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tasks so like a level zero AI was narrowly you know narrow was calculator level one is emerging and this is where they put you know Chad GPT GPT 4 B llama
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2 Gemini right it's sort of level one emerging AGI so it's equal to or somewhat better than an unskilled human and then level two is competent this is where it's at least 50th percentile of
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skilled adults and here they give examples of competent narrow AI but competent AGI has not yet been achieved where it beats you know 90% of skilled adults it's in the 90th
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percentile and for narrow AI here they put things like image and Dolly 3 so generative image models right then level four virtuoso better than 99% of skilled adults and they have dblue and Alpha go
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Alpha go will beat 99% of skilled adults it beat Lee sedo the world champion go player 5 Z I believe but I guess it's still not as insanely good as you know
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the chess playing AI right and of course superum just completely better than 100% of humans currently you know how the world is we believe we're kind of here we're in this emerging AGI and when most
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people talk about AGI like when will AGI get here I feel like they're probably talking something like competent AGI or expert AGI so either it beats the bottom
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half of adults of skilled adults or perhaps 90% of skilled adults at some point Sam Alman said something about you know future AI models being better than the median human I think he said
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basically competent AGI let's take our definition of AI to be somewhere between level two and level three so it's either better than half of the people or better than 90% of the people are somewhere in between whatever now ask yourself this
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could open AI have something behind closed doors that is at least as good as half of skilled adults so it writes it does taxes it checks your spelling it can produce images and videos and
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product packaging and write marketing copy it can use Excel and Word can browse the web like all the tasks that your office workers can do like it's as good as half of them is it conceivable
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that open AI has this well if they train GPT 4 in July 2020 2 and had a bunch of discoveries since and by the way GPT 4 is still one of the best models I mean
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now it finally it has competition has legitimate competition and I think Gemini 1.5 will actually beat it in a lot of in certain areas at least so GPT 4 isn't the Undisputed Champion anymore
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but it's not by any stretch obsolete or out of date or anything like that so if that's the model that we're using that's at the top of the leaderboards and it's trained in July 20 22 then it's important to understand that what we're
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seeing is like light from very distant galaxies whatever we're seeing happened a long long time ago so going back to this if we were looking at something like this and the question was How
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likely do you think that open AI has a level two competent AGI as what they call basement AGI in other words it exists but it's behind closed doors it's not accessible by the world right it's
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in somebody's basement and let's let's assume it doesn't have to be economically viable meaning that for example you know Chad GPT it costs cheap enough to run to where you know they can have a model for free they can have a
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paid model perplexity has a free version and has a paid version so the point is they got the cost down to where it could be released to the public you know the whole world can use it Etc forget that for a second from certain papers that
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we've read in this channel it seems like spending more compute on inference sort of letting the computer think really hard about the answer that improves its ability to answer that question it
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almost replicates the abilities of a more advanced AI so for example if we asked GPT 4 question and let's say normally it
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costs 10 cents in in you know compute cost to answer that question what if we allowed it to spend $10 million of compute to answer that question what would happen well it seems like from
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some of the research that we've seen it seems like that would be a similation of how for example GPT 5 would answer that question just by increasing the compute we're able to see how that model would
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behave at a much more advanced level in fact I believe Ilia Suk talked about that a little bit because he said it would basically this sort of approach would allow him to you know do some
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safety testing on Next Generation models to make sure that you know is cool before we actually train that model before we unleash it we can kind of simulate how it behave by just spending
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much much more resources on it you know answering any given question sort of it's a way to approximate it to kind of glimpse into the future almost so my question is knowing that we know about where openi is you know what we see
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versus what they most likely have behind closed doors and also you know not taking how much stuff costs into account so let's assume they just have you know unlimited access to compute is it possible that they have a competent AGI
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something that's as good as 50% of skilled adults what odds would you give that to me I that seems very likely very possible at least maybe better than 50 so in terms of answering the question
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when will we have AGI whoops did you miss it because if open AI had GPT 4 in July 2022 I has been compounding since cuz keep in mind the gpus have improved
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drastically since then the funding has improved the technology the research everything has improved and you know assuming they've been compounding this whole time dropping more and more grains of rice on the board and we're well into
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that second half of the chessboard well maybe the thing is already here the AGI is here it's just not distributed yet it's just not released yet and that's why Sam Alman talks about you know
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staggering the release releasing it it incrementally not all at once some of the other opena employees have also mentioned the same thing they want to give people a preview of what's coming to let everybody kind of adjust and
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figure out how they're going to go about it things are about to get nutty exactly what this means is kind of hard to predict like I always say I'm fairly optimistic about this whole AGI thing in
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the long term it will be awesome for Humanity in the long term but in the short term it might get bumpy we might have to reconsider some things change how things function we have to learn to
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think from first principles whatever inertia and momentum that Humanity has has achieved we might have to like say wait rethink how all of this works if
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AGI exists how do we think about jobs money the economy how do we think about the things that we see in video and images and text how do we think about human achievement and a sense of
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self-worth like what's our purpose in life if machines can do most things better I know that scares a lot of people I see a lot of people that are very smart very talented that are scared because I guess they believe that some
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of that advantage that they have over other people that will get erased this is where a lot of artists seem to be very concerned if you've seen some of the things that the artist Community saying about AI they're very very
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hostile towards it not everybody I'm generalizing but at least some subsection of that Community anonymously on Twitter let's just say they really don't like that they don't like it they want it to be made illegal and they're
00:34:37
saying that no good will come of it I think it was late 2019 I stumbled on this Reddit Forum that was talking about a a virus that was happening somewhere on the other side of the world it was
00:34:49
making people sick and it was spreading fast it was at that time it was just one city in a very populous country some people on the for more concerned because of how rapidly it was spreading that
00:35:01
exponential growth that compounding was much faster than we've seen before and of course people were concerned I was a little bit concerned I had no idea how that whole situation would end because nobody was yet talking about it it
00:35:14
wasn't on the news it wasn't talked by people we didn't even have a name for it at the time people were just calling it by the city where it originated I discussed it with a friend of mine kind of let him know what I was seeing and we both took some actions to to you know
00:35:28
prepare for it I stocked up on some medical supplies hand sanitizer and such I bought several of those huge hand sanitizer things from Costco I think I still have them to this day now somehow
00:35:39
that wasn't the thing that we run out of the thing that everyone ran out of was toilet paper the correct answer was toilet paper and my friend he shorted
00:35:51
the living bajesus out of Airline and cruise stocks my friend in the meantime made tons of money shorting various travel airplanes and cruise stocks and then at the bottom he poured all his
00:36:06
money into various stocks that he believed would be affected by the massive money printing that was happening to the question is with the coming of AGI however you describe that with this massive compounding force that
00:36:18
is building up and is about to hit the world and no one really knows how and what it will affect how do you navigate those currents how do you protect yourself from risks how do you take advantage of the upsides and I'm not
00:36:31
just talking money just in general how do you navigate this new world we're about to be thrust into well we can't possibly cover that today but in one of my next videos we're going to dig up a
00:36:43
piece written a long long time ago maybe like early 2023 about the two or three things that will actually matter in a post AGI Society
00:36:57
if you enjoyed this please hit Thumbs Up Hit subscribe leave me a comment I try to read as many of them as possible it's hard to read all of them but I try and finally I know you are probably dying to hear the rest of the podcast by the two
00:37:11
golden retrievers podcasting on top of a mountain so to close out this video here's the full 2hour long podcast I'm kidding bye
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