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thank you [Music] thank you so much and good morning everyone so what I want to do is to give you a scientific update on why we have
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to become stewards of the entire planet why we are seeing more and more scientific evidence that the safe space for Humanity is shrinking which requires even more scaling of innovation and
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acceleration of transformation Pathways to an orderly safe and just Landing for Humanity on Earth now what I want to do is to give you a scientific update and run through some of the latest evidence taking us through
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not least how this requires from us a safe and just agenda for innovation Nico rosberg referred specifically to what's happening in Europe and this is
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something that we rarely recognize that Europe is today the region on planet Earth which has the highest frequency and magnitude of extreme events this is one of the ground zeros on planet Earth We're All in This Together impacted
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socially and economically across the entire planet Earth we are at 1.2 degrees Celsius of warming that's the latest data you see here you see two extreme warming points here the 1998 and
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the 2016 extreme super El Nino events these are the record points where we have the highest impacts of extreme events across the planet we're very likely to enter a third Super El Nino
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right as we speak because we have more and more data showing how the surface temperatures in the ocean are going off the charts which is exactly what we expect when the ocean that has absorbed over 90 percent of the heat caused by
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our fossil fuel burning stores in the ocean but releases it during El Nino events warming the planet in an exceptionally High way now this is going
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to put us at risk of potentially bumping into 1.5 degrees Celsius over the next few years so be prepared that the number of extreme events will very likely increase even further this is just showing the shrinking space for Humanity
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on Earth the ipcc the intergovernmental pan on climate change confirms this in the sixth assessment these are the three high-level conclusions that I think are the key take-home messages number one is
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that it's unequivocally established we are causing global warming on planet Earth the warmest temperature on Earth by the way since we left the last ice age 12 000 years ago has already been accomplished today
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but the second conclusion what you see here is that we today scientifically conclude that we are at risk of destabilizing the entire planet we are putting the health the life support systems on Earth at risk and if you look
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at the lower conclusion here it's no longer enough to just phase out fossil fuels and have a net zero World economy by 2050 we also need to safeguard up to 50 percent of the living biosphere the
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planetary boundaries of water nitrogen phosphorus biodiversity in land in order to secure the uptake capacity of carbon in intact nature so dear friends the journey towards a safe landing on
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climate is actually a journey of a global sustainability transformation back within planetary boundaries now what's the reference point therefore that we measure against to have a secure
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stable planet that can support the world as we know it well scientifically we actually have that reference point it comes from Decades of work in ice core data and paleoclimatology showing that
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the Holocene the interglacial warm period since we left the last ice age is a uniquely stable equilibrium state of your system and the only state we know for certain can support humanity and we have the data the data comes from Ice
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core data this is a paper that came out just two years back summarizing all this work and I find this to be an extraordinary finding just look at this graph the last 20 000 years you have Global mean surface temperature on the
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y-axis zero is actually the pre-industrial 14 degree celsius before we start burning fossil fuels we leave the last ice age minus four degrees deep I said and we enter this extraordinarily
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stable warm interglacial Holocene it's 14 degrees plus minus 0.5 0.5 before this we are modern humans we've been around as modern humans for
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200 000 years on Earth but we are hunters and gatherers we have a rough time we live under extremely variable conditions in deep Ice Age we come into the Holocene the neolithical revolution takes part one of the biggest
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Innovations in human history and off we go in the civilizational journey that we all know and here we are today a modern world of 8 billion people moving ahead towards potentially nine ten billion people the conclusion is as simple as
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its dire the Holocene is the only state of the planet we know for certain can support our world the modern world as we know it that's the reference point of a desired planet now we are at risk of
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leaving it so that's what we measure against but we actually have data showing that why is the planet so stable under healthy conditions well it's because of the resilience and we have
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data on that as well this is data from the annual gobook carbon project every year the global carbon cycle is measured showing the hockey stick of emissions the one you all know above the zero line
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here the 40 gigatons of CO2 emitted every year from fossil fuel burning and in Orange deforestation but is that what has warmed the planet 1.2 degrees Celsius so far the answer is
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no because look at under the x-axis the dark green is the uptake of CO2 in the ocean the light green is the uptake in intact nature on land the more we disturb an imbalance the
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Energy System the more the planet has been helping us the x-axis is since we started burning fossil fuels this is an extraordinary Insight a healthy
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Planet applies this biogeochemical processes to remain in the Holocene and just look at the graph a Kindergarten kid sees the pattern the more we disturb a healthy planet is helping us trying
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more and more actually 50 percent of our emissions are taken up by functioning Earth system biosphere every year I call this the biggest subsidy to the world economy of all kinds the problem is
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we're seeing more and more signs like this showing cracks in this system forest fires disease patterns with bark Beetle outbreaks in Canada massive deforestation
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forest fires right as we speak in Canada this is a pulse of carbon meaning that the Brazilian part of the Amazon the richest ecosystem on planet Earth on land has actually already tipped over
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from sink to source she's no longer helping us this is a warning sign we really need to be Steward of the entire planet for a safe landing in addition to that science on the need
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for an integrated approach is also where are the boundaries well for climate we have more and more scientific support that 1.5 degrees Celsius is not some form of goal or Target or something you can compromise with it's a physical
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limit we published this work now roughly half a year back questioning the path we were on right now we're following a path that would take us to 2.7 degrees Celsius even if all the nationally determined contributions are implemented
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by the end of this century let me just make one point very clear 2.7 degrees Celsius is without any doubt a disaster it's a point we haven't seen for the
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past five million years there's no evidence that we can support Humanity as we know it on a 2.7 degrees Celsius planet so we really need to transition and 1.5
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is the scientific limit that we now need to hold on to this was published in science roughly one year back mapping the 16 climate tipping element systems which we now scientifically can prove
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fulfill two criteria number one they contribute to regulate the state of the climate system number two which by the way means we all depend on them number two they have multiple stable States push them too far
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and they cross tipping points now the Breakthrough here because the ipcc lists these we recognize that we have Tipping Point systems the Breakthrough here is that for the first time we've been able to put temperature thresholds on the
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likely temperatures when we cross the Tipping points that's the color schemes you see in the color coding these five are the ones we really need to be concerned with because they are the first ones on the line at 1.5 degrees
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Celsius they're likely to cross their tipping points we're talking here about the green and ice sheet the West Antarctic ice sheet all the tropical coral reef systems home to over 500 million people's livelihood
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the Boreal permafrost a breath throwing a permafrost and loss of the barren sea ice now just the two ice sheets Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheet represent 10 meter sea level rise it would of course not disappear
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catastrophically overnight but it would be irreversible it would be a drift away from the life support systems that we all depend on for our prosperity and Equity into the future this is science
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support for holding on to 1.5 now is ipcc also recognizing this I would argue yes this is 30 years of ipcc Assessments from the third assessment in 2009 all the way to the 1.5 degrees Celsius
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assessment a few years back this is the red Embers diagram of confidence in science and what you see for each column is the assessment of risk of irreversible changes and at what
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temperature levels 20 years ago at the third assessment the risk was basically assessed as zero because it was set at six degrees Celsius nobody was suggesting we would end up at six degrees but look at the trend line the
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more we learn about the planet the more we understand about the coupled interactive Earth system the lower is the temperature at which we put risks of irreversible changes and it's down in
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the less than two degrees Celsius range now blinking red so that's where we are so dear friends we really need to transform and move fast we're also showing that these tipping elements are interconnected in
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so-called Cascades that what's happening in the Arctic which is warming by the way three times faster than the planet on average releases cold fresh water into the North Atlantic slowing down the whole overturning of heat in the North
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Atlantic which pushes the monsoon further south which can explain droughts and forest fires over the Brazilian part of the Amazon moreover the slowing down of overturning of heat means that more warm water is
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stuck in the Southern Ocean which can explain why the West Antarctic ice sheet is melting faster than we had expected so there's a connection between the North Pole and the South Pole in these
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this web of interactive tipping elements so this is something we have to recognize we are today a big world on a very small planet and it's all interwired and we are interdependent now
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what is it then when it comes to the pathways to 1.5 well we are Unfortunately today moving fast in the wrong direction you may have seen last week that the global carbon budget to
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have a chance of holding 1.5 was cut by half so no longer 500 billion tons of carbon dioxide but rather 250 billion tons of carbon dioxide remaining to have a chance of holding 1.5 that's only like
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six seven years under current burning of fossil fuels so an orderly phase out means that we really need to start bending the curve immediately and reduce emissions by in the order of six to seven percent per year to have a net
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Seer World economy between 2014 and 2050 but we're doing research at the Potsdam Institute also looking at the overshoot risks of 1.5 now the graph you see here shows the two Alternatives we have
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either we really radically reduce emissions and come to Net Zero by 2040 with limited overshoot there are some scenarios in the ipcc that follow this
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path we conclude today that these are no longer an option for us unfortunately we are too slow in bending the curve so the option we have remaining for us is the one shown in red bending the curve
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before 2025 and really meeting a net stairwell economy sometime between 2015 2060 to Not Crash the global economy in the phase out of fossil fuels and unsustainable land use
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now the Dilemma is that this will lead to overshoot it will lead to very likely period of at least three decades of overshooting 1.5 and reaching 1.6 1.7 degrees Celsius which we show by mapping
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all the ipcc scenarios which are the best ones we know but they still have this overshoot period I want you to be aware of the fact that we are likely to have over the next 30 Years therefore
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more impacts and a jumpy ride even if we are still holding on to 1.5 and moving on the Innovation Pathways that you all represent that's where we are today so this is why we need a framework to be
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stewards of the entire planet the planetary boundary framework provides this framework we've been working on this for 15 years defining the nine large biophysical system that we now need to be stewards of to have a
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holocene-like stable planet to the right you see the ongoing progress from research groups digging into the water the bios for integrity see the chemicals boundaries and I'll share it for you for
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your eyes only because it's not published yet the latest third scientific update that will hopefully be published in just a few weeks time and here you have it we're now able to quantify all the nine boundaries
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we unfortunately conclude that six of the nine boundaries that's what you see in red here are outside of the safe space so we are in a challenging situation where climate outside of the safe space while we also have biosphere Integrity
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fresh water nitrogen and phosphorus and land but also chemical pollutants outside of the safe range so the Dilemma is we're having a climate crisis while also losing the resilience in the living
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biosphere so dear friends it's really an integrated transformation we need to succeed with the Earth commission has taken up all this science a first attempt of being a kind of a community effort
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scientifically to really give businesses and cities in the world quantitative boundaries to work with to operationalize as science-based targets we have for the first time brought in the social sciences and taken five of
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the nine boundaries climate biodiversity fresh water pollutants air pollutants and and nutrients nitrogen phosphorus and been able to to Define not only safe
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operational numbers for this across scales I won't go through the numbers here but just so you're aware that this is now quantifying this this safe space but for the first time also doing it for justice so measuring the maximum allowed
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of significant harm to people and the key take home here is the following in the outer ring here the red and green you see the safe boundary definitions
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the blue lines are the assessment of justice so not surprisingly if we care about people the safe bound is about the stability of the planet but if we care about avoiding significant harm to hundreds of millions of people across
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the world the climate boundary shrinks from 1.5 down to one degree because we're seeing already today how heat waves floods disease patterns and water scarcity impacts such large
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significant numbers of people so for climate air pollution and overloading of nitrogen this the space shrinks even more if you take on a safe and just perspective so we need an even deeper
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Innovation the pathways are really significant we need to know reach zero in the order of between 20 30 and 2040 to stay within that that kind of shrunk space and it's all a sustainability
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transformation so I'll leave you with this kind of summary graph showing that we need to phase out fossil fuels but the dark brown to orange is a transition of the food system which has to go from source to sink and we need to maintain
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the planetary boundaries on intact nature in green and healthy oceans in blue this is the only path to a safe climate Landing to do everything right nature Agriculture and phasing our
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fossil fuels the orange one here is actually scaling carbon dioxide removal so we also need technologies so all the sectors that you're working on are fundamental from Technologies for
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renewable decarbonization all the way for circular economy and biosphere based Solutions and that is where we are we see so much of scalable Solutions the exponential roadmap initiative is one
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example you are the innovators here that's so exciting not only is the criteria for the pathway towards a safe landing shrinking but we also have evidence that this is not a fantasy
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pathway sector by sector have scalable solutions that can be exponentially adopted which also give better outcomes for economy for health for security also
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for peace in the future so it's a transition phase we all need to get through so I'll leave you with this for the conference here I think we are today really at this kind of pivotal moment we're no longer in this just pushing the
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ball up the hill because we have scalable solutions that can show better outcomes for Humanity but we're certainly not beyond the the peak we really need to accelerate and that's why a Green Tech Festival like this is
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fundamental and the partnership between science and Innovation I think is one of the engines for a positive future for Humanity so good luck with the conference and thank you so much foreign
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