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most history videos are about the past but this one's different this is a history video about the future a future of the Myriad possible
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versions of the 21st century this is a future in which we win we overcome the climate crisis this is far from a best case scenario if such a thing exists it's not
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the most likely scenario but it is a possible future a future in which in the year 2100 the intergovernmental panel on climate change publishes a special report on climate change in it authors
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from around the world detail how global average temperatures have stabilized how the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere peaked and has slowly Fallen detailing the immense impacts of anthropogenic climate change over the
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past Century on humans and the natural world and the challenges that will Define the 22nd century for both but that report also details the path not taken the 21st century with its
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soaring temperatures and plagues and floods as it would have been if a different path had been chosen in the critical year of [Music] [Music]
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2044 [Music] [Music]
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let's provide some historical context the first few Decades of the 21st century continue the trends of the late 20th century observations of the Earth's system made it extremely clear that the
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climate was changing carbon dioxide was building up in the atmosphere overwhelmingly from burning fossil fuels coal gas and oil scientists use computer models economic forecasts and arguments
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from the historical record to show that this would have significant impacts global average temperatures would climb extreme weather events would become more extreme and more frequent societies
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would become poorer and more prone to sudden breakages millions of species around the world would face increased pressure or outright Extinction these changes would occur the scientists
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warned at a pace that had no historic parallel it would be disastrous to continue down the path chosen at the start of the century instead the world should limit warming to less than 2° C
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ideally less than 1 and 1 12° the more warming the world experienced Above This level the more likely it became that the world would pass a Tipping Point in which climatic changes would intensify possibly triggering more tipping points
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and warming the world not by a few degrees but as many as a dozen the scientists were clear there was no Silver Bullet to achieving this but that there would be Myriad Solutions some
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large some small however the largest by far was reducing consumption of the fossil fuels that pumped CO2 into the atmosphere to keep warming below dangerous levels they stressed the world
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needed to remove its dependence on coal oil and gas the world was sluggish to respond in the first Decades of the 21st century as in the late 20th century limited action took place to transition
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away from fossil fuels use of renewable electricity generation in particular solar began to take off but other sectors in particular heating transport and agriculture barely shifted this was
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because at least in part also continuing a trend from the late 20th century powerful multinational companies that produced and sold fossil fuels did everything they could to prevent And Delay the transition away from said
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fuels in some cases this action was overt such as paying politicians to block legislation and financing public information campaigns to cast doubt on climate science or more subtle such as paying for Aster Turf campaigns to
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change public perception of local energy projects notably Exxon later Exxon Mobile deliberately blocked publication of research that indicated their company's products were altering the earth's climate they knew this fact and
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chose to ignore it later analysis would estimate that these corporate actions would delay the peak of global emissions by two decades causing an estimated 35 million excess deaths and leading to the
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controversial Acra Trials of 2073 but that's a point for later let's pick up the story in the 2020s in 2023 a strong El Nino phase
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began raising temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and so the world average with a large natural temperature anomaly on top of the anthropogenic warming caused since the Industrial Revolution 2023 became the warmest year on record
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by quite some distance before 2024 beat that same record alongside these soaring temperatures extreme weather events became noticeably more intense flooding in Libya heat
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waves in Europe droughts in China and India around now the science of attribution became more and more concrete scientists were able to say with greater certainty that heat waves and droughts and eventually other
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phenomena like floods were made more likely by climate change and quantify how much more damaging they were because of it this science was the center of media attention in 2028 when Miami was
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hit by Category 5 hurricane Carl and then 3 weeks later from the other direction by Category 5 hurricane Lisa Disaster Response was completely
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overwhelmed able to cope with one hurricane but utterly ill equipped to deal with the new possibility of clustered extreme events attribution analysis indicated that the $300 billion
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cost of the store STS would have been orders of magnitude lower in a world without climate change if the double storm event could have happened at all all around the world in the 2020s extreme events were made more intense
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and more frequent by climate change and as a moderate Alo phase began again 2029 took the record for the warmest year but the world did not watch these disasters unfold and the temperatures rise Higher
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and Higher and simply do nothing public support for decarbonization the process of reducing Global carbon emissions became more widespread enshrined in international law in fact with the Paris
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agreement of 2015 which committed 194 signatur Nations to reducing carbon emissions with the goal of keeping global warming below 2° C A lot of these successes came down to the increasingly
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vocal climate activist movement championed initially by scientists and later organized groups such as Extinction rebellion and Fridays for future as the decade wore on in larger and larger and more disruptive peaceful
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protests people demanded change no new coal power plants no more subsidies for fossil fuel extraction a price on carbon though some activists became more and more radical directly targeting the
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infrastructure of the root cause of the climate crisis the fossil fuel industry pipelines and refineries were first the focus of siins then bombings much later analysis would debate the impact these
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radical actions had on climate action and whether they in fact delayed stabilizing global temperatures by turning people against decarbonization regardless the world was changing and becoming less carbon
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intense much of this change came from National governments policies were enacted that required improvements to Energy Efficiency incentives were given to individuals transitioning from the use of fossil fuels to electrified systems such as heat pumps and electric
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cars there were Landmark pieces of legislation such as the European climate law of 2020 1 and the American inflation reduction Act of 2022 these pieces of legislation were derided by many as not
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going far enough which of course turned out to be true but they did still result in meaningful change in particular thanks to National Target setting the global electricity supply of the 2020s quite rapidly transitioned away from
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fossil fuels with solar photovoltaics becoming the largest source of Power by installed capacity in 2027 to keep up with the everg growing demand for the raw materials for new solar panels and lithium ion batteries Mining and
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refining operations expanded particularly in Africa foreign Capital overwhelmingly from China funded new mines for Cobalt ctan lithium and other minerals in fact as the 2030s began
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China's Ambitions in Africa were very plain huge quantities of money and trained Personnel were invested in the continent as part of the expanded belt and Road scheme this was partly to cement China's Monopoly on the supply of
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the new fundamental resources of the decarbonized global economy and partly to expand its geopolitical influence Chinese nuclear reactor technology was exported to African leaders these leaders seeing population projections of
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huge growth and densely packed cities needed rapid expansion of their electrical grids and readily accepted China had influence all over the continent the Sino African nuclear Consortium over the coming decades
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significantly reduced the carbon intensity of new Urban grids and even coordinated the disposal of the nuclear waste produced by these new reactors dumping it in an unfashionable part of Somalia for which the Somalian
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government was somewhat compensated China became the dominant force in global geopolitics somewhere around here depending on which author you believe surpassing the increasingly militaristic
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United States and as leadership changed China became less confrontational and opened up to the world meanwhile the other side of the Himalayas the other population be off of India was rising in
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influence and becoming more closed off and shifting towards a single party State the BJP consolidating power together China and India moving in rather different directions represented
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almost 40% of all humans on Earth and so their efforts to decouple economic growth from emitting carbon into the atmosphere would be crucial fortunately they were making great progress in doing so China undeniably got a head start on
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India leading a colossal push in solar energy in the 2010s and 2020s and its carbon emissions peaking in 2027 India didn't achieve Peak emissions until the 2040s for the same reason that
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China's emissions didn't Peak even sooner coal much as China and India invested heavily in solar technology for the first half of the 21st century their
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economies ran on coal the oldest and most polluting of all fossil fuels continuing to build new coal Farm power plants even into the 2040s it was only when under pressure from widespread
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activism the International Community demanded the phase out of coal by 2050 threatening a carbon export tariff that the fuel was finally retired to the history books a process accelerated
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needless to say by the events of 2044 it should be pointed out of course that the International Community benefited enormously from the cheap electricity coal provided in manufacturing their goods for import
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from China and India and in a very real sense the world economy not just China and India's had run on coal up to this point regardless much was made of how these two nations were quote holding the
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world back as clustered extreme events like hurricanes Carl and Lisa and the droughts across South America in 2033 became more common China and India both spent the 203s rolling out record-breaking quantities of renewable
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energy through a combination of Chinese nuclear Tech technology hydroelectric and a surprising number of Next Generation geothermal power plants they replaced the Bedrock of their and thus
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the world's electricity Supply in 2034 the same year that China began opening up to the world attention was on the oceans and it was a year of contrasts on the one hand Landmark legal
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protections were enacted preserving for the first time more than 50% of the ocean from exploitation plastic waste and chemical pollution at least on paper conservation groups hailed the news saying it would be pivotal in at least a
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resting and alarming decline in global fish stocks and oceanic biodiversity but it would prove too late for the world's tropical corals that year the Great Barrier Reef
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off the coast of Australia underwent the single largest bleaching event the world had ever seen rising ocean acidity combined with an oceanic Heat Wave resulted in the severe bleaching of 86%
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of all Corals in The Reef it was estimated that the Great Barrier Reef had lost 34 of all its corals since 1995 and the phenomenon was not limited
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to Australian Waters by 2034 globally 50% of all corals the most biodiverse environment in the oceans had gone extinct their loss threatened a Tipping
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Point a Tipping Point in climate terms is a set of conditions Beyond which changes in a part of the climate system become self-perpetuating those changes can lead to abrupt irreversible and
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dangerous impacts Coral loss was a regional Tipping Point once Coral populations dropped below a certain level they might be locked into a doom spiral unable to return to their previous populations this would have
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devastating impacts on the local marine food web and temperature and changes in The Wider Marine nutrient and carbon Cycles but in the 2020s scientists identified eight Global tipping points
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if one of these tipping points were to be reached the impact would be significant worldwide and potentially enormous regionally for example if the Atlantic meridianal overturning circulation a deep conveyor belt of heat
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in the Atlantic Ocean were to collapse the planet would cool by up to half a de C but Europe specifically could cool by as much as 10° a return to Ice Age
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conditions these tipping points would be triggered at certain levels of global warming exactly how much warming scientists in the 2020s did not know but they could provide a range of temperatures and their best guess of
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where in that range The Tipping Point would be reached these best guesses ranged from 1 and 1/2 de of warming to 7 and 1/2 de of warming as it stood in the 2020 s and 2030s the expected trajectory
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of the 21st century could trigger some of these tipping points and if that happened their additional warming could trigger a Cascade effect Tipping Point after tipping point being reached and
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the global climate rendered increasingly unrecognizable it was for this reason that scientists and activists were so vocal about keeping global warming below 1 and a 12° c it was the best bet to avoid hitting any of these Global
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tipping points as it turned out however the loss of tropical corals was not the only Tipping Point reached in the 2030s bombshell analysis in 2035
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indicated that the Greenland ice sheet was in the early stages of collapse sooner than expected if total collapse occurred additional sea level rise solely from the Greenland ice sheet
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could be 2 and A2 m in the case of a Cascade up to seven additional M over a few centuries a scenario described by one of the authors of the analysis as game
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over but the analysis stressed this was not inevitable if global temperatures could be stabilized and brought down to pre-industrial levels within a century or two total collapse could be avoided and while temperature records continued
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to be broken Global decarbonization was certainly headed in the right direction electrical grids were becoming less carbon intense with massive investment in new grids and Storage roll out of solar and wind and the commissioning of
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new geothermal and more controversially outside of Asia nuclear plants but the world wasn't just putting less carbon into the atmosphere it was also starting to draw down more carbon from it in some
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cases this was done deliberately such as in direct air capture plants powered by renewable electricity these did next to nothing having such a small effect as to be statistically insignificant still they were deemed promising for the
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future and had billions invested in them by large corporations aiming for Net Zero without actually reducing their emissions by the end of the century they would contribute perhaps 5% of all anthropogenic carbon draw down more
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effective were rewilding efforts restoring lost habitats and in particular replanting diverse species of trees in Lost Woodlands but an unintentional quite significant carbon
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sink came from cities in an attempt to mitigate Rising temperatures provide shade and beautify the increasingly dense environment enironment City governments planted trees in streets in
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tree corridors in Parks our forestation became a form of civic pride cities competing to plant the most trees and reap the benefits of cooler fresher Air One entire sector that underwent a transformation in the 2030s to reduce
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its carbon emissions was transport at the start of the century road vehicles for both passengers and Freight were the largest contributors to Global carbon emissions from transport almost entirely relying on burning hydrocarbon in
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internal combustion engines beginning in the 2010s however these vehicles were gradually replaced with electric vehicles slowly at first but by the late 2030s electric cars and then light Goods
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vehicles and finally trucks began to dominate with bans on new internal combustion engine vehicles coming into effect in many countries also reducing emissions from road vehicles however was an explosive investment in the late 2020s in high-speed International Rail
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and specifically connections between High-Speed Rail networks this was spurred in part by the coronavirus pandemic of 2020 which accelerated the move of service sector employees working from home allowing them to live further
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from their employment and thus increasing the distances they would travel when they did travel to work being the center of such service sector jobs Europe North America and particularly Asia saw huge
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infrastructure upgrades allowing for fast electrified inter city travel in some cases especially when paired with improved Urban public transport as was the case in European cities this s reduced dependency on cars in others
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such as North American cities it reduced dependency on planes the longdistance transport of people and Freights by planes and ships had remained stubbornly difficult to decarbonize apart from efficiency improvements until
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2037 it was in this year that so-called sustainable Aviation fuels made from biological sources like corn and refined with low carbon electricity became cost competitive with traditional fuels like
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kerosene for the first time this marked the beginning of a multi- decadal reduction in the environmental impact of flying with shipping following just behind partly due to the successful
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decarbonization process of the transport sector Global carbon emissions hit an historic milestone in 2035 that year the world released 49.2 gigatons of carbon dioxide
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equivalent the most it would ever emit in one year 2035 was Peak carbon emissions from here though unevenly net carbon emissions would fall throughout
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the century overwhelmingly due to the reduction in emissions from shifting away from fossil fuels this was the cause for huge celebrations with many commentators and politicians hailing
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that the tide has turned or that the climate crisis has been tackled PE commissions parties were hosted all over the world by generation of people told that their future would be defined by ever increasing emissions and ever
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increasing damage to to the natural world climate activism was no longer about the future it was about the present that year the eer nuclear fusion reactor fired up in France and almost
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made it to net positive energy production more energy came out of the fusion reaction than was put in if you ignored losses and inefficiencies clean near Infinite Energy was now just surely
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decades away with the next technical demonstration it really seemed like cause for celebration the world had done it the path to Net Zero was now inevitable but these celebrations were
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premature carbon was still building up in the atmosphere though more slowly than before and the second half of the decade saw the effects of the resulting climate change begin to
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bite 2036 saw first heat wve conditions and then huge downpours in Europe and Central Asia the sunbaked Earth became impermeable and the Rain Led to wide spread flash flooding vast areas were
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covered with water and these flood waters then acted as perfect incubators for mosquitoes due to changing temperature and precipitation patterns mosquitoes had become more and more widespread outside the tropics and in
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the case of 2036 such midlatitude mosquitoes led to an outbreak of West Nile virus that killed 5,000 people by the mid-century such outbreaks of previously tropical diseases would occur
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several times a decade in the mid latitudes with death tolls each year ranging from the high hundreds to the low tens of thousands attribution analysis indicated that these outbreaks were all made vastly more likely by
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climate change water was the root cause of much of what was to come either too much or too little in Europe there was too much in Egypt there was too little
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and that was because of the g d the grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam this was the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa supplying almost all of Ethiopia's electricity needs doing so
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however required restriction of the flow of the Blue Nile into Egypt and when due to shifting precipitation patterns in 2036 the Reigns failed as they did in 2037 and 2038 in order to maintain power
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generation Ethiopia slowed the flow of the Nile to a relative trickle throughout These Years Egypt and Sudan voiced their protests the Nile was after all the only freshwater source for the majority of Egypt and so vital for
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sanitation and agriculture negotiations took place with Ethiopia who said their energy security was Paramount Egypt escalated to the African Union than the United Nations words escalated Egypt
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warned that its people would start dying if the Reigns failed again to which Ethiopia said if the rains fail the region will need a large supply of electricity for desalination more than ever ever eventually threats were made
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ignored and then carried out Egypt sent fighter jets to air strike the dam and renew the supply of the Nile by force The Fallout was immense conflict quickly escalated as both countries mobilized
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troops near the border and neighboring countries and indeed the International Community were forced to take sides despite a lack of orders skirmishes took place between infantry and armored fighting vehicles at the border as heat
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scorched tensions boiled over at the last minute desperate negotiations mediated by China anxious to avoid disruption of its supply of lithium avoided allout war but Regional stability was in tatters as it was
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elsewhere in Saudi Arabia filling a power vacuum left by the increasingly disinterested United States having largely weaned itself off oil Iranian funded groups gain ground in the Sahel in the late 2030s partly driven by crop
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failures and partly by high excess mortality caused by heat stress overwhelming the Healthcare Systems multiple States including bikina Faso Chad Mali and nier underwent coup or attempted coups ner split into
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modern-day ner and the agadez sultanate and then it was 2040 and the world hit a grim Milestone amid clustered extreme events and spreading tropical diseases
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Mass migration and drought in 2040 the global average temperature anomaly over the previous 5 years was officially confirmed as 1.5° celius doubtlessly helped by a
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persistent alino phase in the Pacific Ocean the world still stood face to face with a grim reality of its own making just 5 years after carbon emissions had peaked the effort to limit warming to
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1.5° was over activists had lost the fight the trajectory forwards and just how much more warming we would experience was uncertain and much hinged
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on the crucial decade that was to come with every tenth of a degree of additional warming the world was more likely to trigger more tipping points with emissions declining as they were at the start of the decade despite Promises
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by politicians over the past 30 years total cumulative carbon emissions would lead to anthropogenic global warming stabilizing around the turn of the century at 2.3 de as you can see this
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would likely result in the total collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet the Greenland ice sheet the Atlantic subpolar Gaia as well as several Regional tipping points such as the loss of all Mountain glaciers abrupt Thor of
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the Boreal permafrost and the loss of ice in the barren sea the combined effect of these tipping points on further warming was uncertain sea level rise by the end of the century was
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expected to be 70 CM but it would not stop there by the end of The Next Century sea levels were expected to have risen by 2 and A2 M this would submerge
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land home in 2040 to to over a billion people the world stood on a precipice as we now know of course this trajectory did not happen but in 2040
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there was a very real sense of Despair over the past few decades climate related mental health conditions had become more and more common people did not feel one and a half degrees warmer
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but they felt the extremes they felt the weekl long heat waves the spikes in prices of food after droughts The Sting of once tropical diseases overwhelming healthc Care Centers climate anxiety was
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recognized as a condition in the 2010s and by 2040 it had become something of an epidemic people were having fewer children with climate anxiety being cited as the most common reason
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throughout the 2020s and 2030s increasing numbers of notes left behind by people who took their own lives referenced the climate in the 2040s this climate despair was commonplace and the
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subject of multiple Public Health inquiries and looking at the world these people left behind it wasn't hard to see why across almost every continent political instability was Rising extreme weather events were becoming more common
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and more intense threatening agriculture drinking water supplies and cities themselves diseases previously confined to the tropics were becoming more and more common and as the world continued to burn fossil fuels for electricity and
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Industry parate matter from incomplete combustion killed Millions each year largely in the huge cities of Africa and Asia climate refugees fearing both political unrest and uninhabitable
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conditions poured across National borders first in their thousands then in their hundreds of thousands then in their Millions further straining political discourse every few years a country would swing to the hard right
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and declare a Hardline stance on immigrants pushing ever growing vulnerable groups to the edges of society India did this in 2041 closing and fortifying the border to Bangladesh increasingly under pressure from rising
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sea levels with neighborhoods of Dhaka being abandoned India's government cracked down even on internal migration leading to ever Rising political tension the natural world was clearly being
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depleted with species going extinct at a rate approximately 5,000 times greater than the natural Extinction rate unique bird song disappeared from forests never to be heard again the entire ecosystems
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underwent population collapse as keystone species went extinct in a further decline in 2043 it was announced that 75% of all corals had gone extinct
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their continued existence by 2100 was in severe doubt and then that same year open War erupted in Central Asia in the 1920s Soviet authorities
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Drew new arbitrary borders for the constituent republics of usbekistan kyrgistan and Tajikistan these borders did not account for ethnic economic or geographical differences and were
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frankly a complete mess since the fall of the Soviet Union and Independence for these countries in 1991 the borders have been a source of conflict of other increasing importance was the fagana
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valley this fertile Valley supplied water for agriculture and drinking and was of vital importance to the three countries that shared clumb borders within it those borders were the Tinder
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and the water supply the spark for the war of 2043 you see far to the southeast over The Late 20th century the ARL sea wants the fourth largest lake in the world dried out due to the rivers that
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supplied it being diverted for agriculture where once was the ARL sea is now the aralon desert dust from the newly formed desert was blown onto Mountain glaciers the p and the tianan
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that fed the fagana valley and this dust lowered the reflectivity of the glaciers which combined with rapidly Rising temperatures in the mountains led to hugely accelerated melt of the glaciers
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suddenly the water supply precariously shared between the three countries was in Jeopardy and there simply wasn't enough to go around in 20143 in a turn of events almost entirely caused by the
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twin environmental disasters of climate change and heavy-handed agriculture usbekistan struck first and declared war on both kyrgistan and Tajikistan occupying the fagana valley thanks to
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the overwhelming military Advantage this water conflict raged actively for 6 weeks and passively for six years with casualties in the tens of thousands it was the first true water War but not the
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last but suddenly then it was 2044 and the ACT axle of History was about to turn you may have noticed that a key group of actors have thus far been
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missing from this history we've spoken about how cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide were altering the atmosphere and causing the world to on average warm we've also spoken about how the dominant sources of these emissions were fossil
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fuels gas coal and oil so what in the first half of the 21st century when the environmental harm of their industry was becoming more and more obvious were the companies that extracted and refined
00:32:28
those fossil fuels doing well for the most part extracting and refining even more fossil fuels despite the overtures of national governments in conferences such as Paris in 2015 and Lagos in 2027
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fossil fuel extraction ramped up through the first quarter of the century coal in India so-called natural gas in the United States oil in Saudi Arabia and all of this was supported by extensive
00:32:54
subsidies for the industry representing fully 7% of global GDP in 2023 after all if the system ain't broke and is generating profit don't fix it
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yet we've already heard that the transport and particularly electricity sectors were successfully decarbonizing by the 2040s demand for fossil fuels across the board was decreasing lowcar
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carbon Alternatives which were cheaper per unit of energy supplied became available and practical in more and more settings some fossil fuel producers were not blind to this while all maintain
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publicly that we take the climate crisis very seriously and we have been investing in renewable energy alternatives for the majority of companies these were mere words that well maybe true in some cases had no
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practical impact companies such as Royal Dutch Shell aramco and Exon Mobile had tied their corporate identities to oil and if they were changing their business model at all were doing so very slowly
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investments in green hydrogen produced by by electrolysis using cheap solar energy and transported by existing infrastructure were slow as were investments in new electrical grids containing some new renewable generation
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but also locking in further use of fossil fuels BP was one of a handful of fossil fuel producers to put rhetoric into action as a chief executive put it candidly in 2031 we see ourselves as an
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energy company not specifically a fossil fuel company sure that's the historic Source but at the end of the day our contracts are to supply x amount of power to the grid of country y for Z years we will do that in the cheapest
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way we can regardless of source in 2019 BP spent 3% of its capital expenditure on transitional Energy Products in 2022 that number was 30% and in 2028
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90% the fact was renewable sources of energy were already cheaper than coal oil and gas BP saw the opportunity to have first mover advantage and ultimately make a lot of money still
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despite significant investments in green hydrogen and sustainable Aviation fuels their business model was largely based on fossil fuels and so as the 2020s turned into the 2030s their margins were
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squeezed by the coming crisis you see production of fossil fuels had been ramped up across the industry having bet that Renewables uptake would be slower than it proved to be however in order to remain cost competitive with those cheap
00:35:21
renewable energy sources fosto fuel companies were forced to sell their products at lower and lower prices those prices were artificially lowered further by a desire to offload their assets with negative
00:35:34
Futures production was high and price was dropping like a stone producers profits started to Tumble having somewhat Diversified by the 2030s BP and a handful of other companies were more
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insulated from this than many of their competitors who had realized the danger and began shifting to Renewables but too late in the early 2030s some small producers started going out of business
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by the late 2030s some mediumsized producers went bust snapped up by larger companies but the bankruptcies hit their peak in 2044 and the industry would never be the
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same again this was the year the Year where decades long processes came to a conclusion the fulcrum around which the future pivoted the year started with the
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aftermath of the fagana valley War reverberating around the world but as spring turned to Summer the eyes of the world turned further north much further north to the Arctic because this summer
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2044 after Decades of decline satellites confirmed that the Arctic was entirely free of sea ice for the first time in human history an entire ecosystem had
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been irrevocably damaged the resulting change in Planet AR albo in summer was expected to accelerate warming further the world SE from space now looked very different thanks to climate change but
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the news did not stop there at the other end of the world in ustal Winter scientists announced that the West Antarctic ice sheet long in Decline and its loss considered inevitable had
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started rapidly deteriorating the previous summer The Tipping Point had been reached and faster than expected the entire ice sheet was falling apart sea level rise estimates were revised
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upwards again threatening hundreds of millions of people the chological systems on Earth glaciers sea ice ice sheets were in their death throws droughts and heat waves occurred
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yearly ecosystems were disappearing refugees were building up on National borders the world was looking more and more unrecognizable people looked to the Future and were were scared climate
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activists reached their peak of radicalization gas pipelines oil refineries coal mines even corporate headquarters were the targets for physical assaults enormous climate marches demanded that governments enter
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crisis mode controversial negotiations around the use of geoengineering dimming the Sun by injecting sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere founded at the United Nations and it was against all of this that in the summer of
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2044 the fossil fuel industry collapsed at first it was a few producers the typical rate for the previous decade but then the big dominoes started to fall arono then shell then in a Cascade total
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energies Petrina and more all failures caused by the ever lowering price of oil and gas and this summer the removal of billions of dollars of capital by investors who either saw the ship
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sinking or finally grew a conscience the only analogy of scale that could be drawn was the financial crash of 2008 and the cascading collapse of the financial sector but far far bigger like
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2008 these major fossil fuel producers thought that they were too big to fail bailouts must come from National governments or the world energy Market would be thrown into chaos surely the
00:39:16
bailouts would come and here the world's governments and financial ministers stood at the turning point the old guard of the energy industry had come cap in hand
00:39:30
with modest bailouts of a few trillion dollars that would of course eventually mostly be repaid the Giants of coal oil and gas could turn the Taps back on keep the gas flowing and keep the global
00:39:43
economy stable by giving a bailout these companies could invest in new sources of energy and while the economy would require the extraction of fossil fuels for a few more decades eventually the energy Majors would be ready for the
00:39:56
transition I doing so would prolong the use of fossil fuels and keep emissions high for a little while but it would be worth it to ensure shareholder profits and of course
00:40:08
stability within governments around the world politicians that were bankrolled by these energy Majors were vocal in their support for such bailouts and in some Petro States like Kuwait and the UAE nationalized energy companies received the
00:40:20
bailout but most governments said no there were vast vast crowds outside every Parliament and state house and legislature on earth look at what is
00:40:34
happening they said look at the Arctic look at the war in the fagana valley look at the Great Barrier Reef how much more do we have to lose before you change our course by this point climate
00:40:46
activism had permeated every level of society it was no longer a distinct movement but in meshed within gender activism local environmental groups social justice groups education groups the list went on but in the end as would
00:41:00
emerge in interviews conducted years later as part of the pullit a prize winning enough the turning point for the majority of government officials was their children the officials were of a generation brought up as the climate
00:41:11
crisis became more apparent but they would not be around to see the year 2100 they would not be around to see the world that scientists projected but their children would as one British
00:41:24
Finance Minister put it I looked into my daughter's eyes and imagined what she would see when she was my age how could I live with myself for inflicting that future upon
00:41:36
her bailouts were denied companies folded the global economy went into turmoil not seen since the AI bubble of 2026 or the pandemic of 2020 those companies that did receive bailouts
00:41:49
almost all failed within 3 years plunging Petra States like the UAE into even deeper crisis nationalized companies were stri of their assets and remade into modern energy companies those that had significantly Diversified
00:42:02
fared better with BP taking enormous losses but still operating and just barely making profits even in the worst of the crisis another notable Survivor was Exxon Mobile who through corporate ruthlessness and ferocious lobbying of
00:42:15
the American government was able to secure a Lifeline battered and bruised they continued extracting oil to fuel the dwindling Aviation and shipping sectors but these companies were a thing
00:42:26
of the past while public opinion had finally turned against fossil fuels the simple fact was that basic economics had a long time previously burning hydrocarbons was in the majority of
00:42:38
cases simply not cost competitive with other sources of energy especially solar which had only become cheaper and cheaper with each passing decade with the immense financial support of governments removed having been locked
00:42:51
into such support for a century or more sustained by extensive lobbying the industry started fading away assets that had been valued at billions of dollars were left in the ground the cost of
00:43:03
extracting them considered too high both financially and environmentally even the once enormous Plastic industry could not sustain the sector having become less dependent on oil and producing far lower quantities after the bands on single-use
00:43:17
Plastics of the 2030s while the world still needed refined crude oil for some applications the energy Market was no longer beholden to Fuels of the past to fossils by 2100 the business of fossil
00:43:31
fuel extraction and refinement was worth less than 1% of its value a century before in 2044 those funds previously used to support the fossil field
00:43:42
industry were now repurposed refusing the bailouts was not enough the public demanded the vast diverse climate activism movement now an avalanche of Voters wanted Action Now government
00:43:55
scrambled for an easy target and found it in methane methane emissions had been the target for reductions in the previous two decades but with limited success now repurpose money was poured into reforming waste disposal
00:44:07
dismantling natural gas infrastructure and of course decarbonizing agriculture largely through reducing consumption of meat methane emissions plummeted over the rest of the decade making a significant dent in global carbon
00:44:19
emissions those governments that did not deliver these victories were simply ejected from office in Landslide victories for climate Cent parties the world more connected than ever before was gripped by a kind of green wartime
00:44:32
spirit this decade would play host to the largest most coordinated environmental movement ever seen it speed astonished veteran campaigners used to glacial progress in 2045 another
00:44:44
notable victory was won for the climate movement as a moratorium on deforestation in the Amazon was agreed safeguarding the largest most diverse rainforest on Earth and an enormous carbon sink by 50 it was also announced
00:44:57
that the cement and Steel Industries had both been effectively decarbonized making cement chemically requires the release of carbon dioxide and both cement and steel require extremely high energy densities to manufacture their products while the former benefited from
00:45:10
the rapid expansion of carbon capture at source Technologies both were effectively retrofitted to use green hydrogen produced using African and Australian Sunshine the corporate survivors of the collapse of 2044 were
00:45:22
able to carve out a new Niche for themselves here elsewhere in enormous quantities of capital were invested in renewable energy generation seen as the new no-brainer investment by accountants that would have previously CED all
00:45:34
producers or Commodities Traders as the 2040s turned into the 2050s the carbon intensity of the global electrical grid NOS dived as the Investments of the previous few decades truly made
00:45:45
themselves known vast new solar and wind farms covered the landscape bringing electrification to the last few regions of the world that had previously been in the dark elsewhere GE geothermal and hydroelectric plants powered mediumsized
00:45:58
cities and in some areas nuclear plants that have began Construction in the 2030s finally came online and powered evergrowing metropolises in 2051 the European Union announced that it had finally reached
00:46:11
carbon neutrality putting no more carbon into the atmosphere than it removed through expanded forests and agriculture a few years later in 2053 the United States announced hitting the same Milestone the final piece of the puzzle
00:46:23
had been Aviation which despite expansion of High-Speed Rail remained vital to the American economy as the price of sustainable Aviation fuels continued to decline so too did the net impact of flying with the announcement
00:46:36
Exxon Mobile stock tied in no small part to Aviation fell significantly there was still however a climate crisis happening and it was not all good news minor water wars and
00:46:48
skirmishes took place in Africa South America and Central Asia in 2054 the prospect of War loomed very very large and very real in the Himalayas as Mountain glacial systems continued to
00:47:00
deteriorate in Tibet both China and India saw their water supplies being threatened in a pattern that had become all too familiar to geopolitical analysts first there was an escalation of words then a buildup of troops near
00:47:14
the border militaries were placed on high alert offers of mediation Talks by the United States were firmly rebuffed the escalated standoff lasted for 9 months until eventually
00:47:26
merely China blinked tensions remained but troops were placed on Lower alert at least for the time being in 2100 of course the issue of Tibet water India
00:47:39
and China remains an unresolved problem the stability of the Middle East was also thrown into doubt as in 2053 an Iranian backed coup took over in Saudi Arabia the region was set for decades of unrest as Iran and Shia Islam continued
00:47:53
to expand its influence through a number of small small states that were in the process of rebuilding through transitioning to solar based economies elsewhere the slow creeping Menace of sea level rise had claimed its early
00:48:05
victims small settlements and farmland were lost sporadically at first and then as the decade wore on more and more frequently in 2058 after more than a decade of slow transition the capital of
00:48:18
Indonesia was forly relocated to n santara with the old capital of Jakarta abandoned to the wave in the United States apart from a few enclaves maintained by eccentric billionaires the Tampa Bay Area was also
00:48:32
abandoned around the same time the State of Florida and its unique culture were visibly sinking below sea level the world did not see these
00:48:44
developments and despair however by the end of the middle decade of the 21st century a new generation was firmly in charge in management and government positions the guard had changed to those who had grown up with the climate crisis
00:48:58
a constant factor in their lives a problem that they knew they had to rise to the challenge of the momentum of change was maintained with further upgrades to the stability storage and interconnectivity of electrical grids
00:49:10
around the world our forestation planting lots of trees largely where they had been previously cut down became the buzzword efforts by the dwindling fossil fuel business to tie government decarbonization policy to direct air
00:49:23
carbon capture and storage were rebu those schemes with bio energy with carbon capture and storage growing crops burning them to generate electricity and then capturing and storing the carbon in the ground were more effective the
00:49:35
global loss and damage fund financed several such projects to assist with the economic development of southern Africa in 2059 scientists delivered some good news after intense observations and no
00:49:47
small amount of subglacial modeling they revised their estimates of the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet while melt was still significant it was now believed that the ice sheet was more stable than previously feared The
00:49:59
Tipping Point had not quite been reached total collapse was not inevitable and could be avoided if temperatures came down fast enough in 2060 scientists
00:50:11
delivered even better news the world was estimated to have reached Net Zero carbon dioxide emissions China had reached Net Zero in 2055 and India in 2059 between the net negative emissions
00:50:25
of other power blocks over the past decade or so which had become not insignificant the residual emissions of the rest of the world had been balanced out at least for carbon dioxide a few smaller greenhouse gases notably methane
00:50:37
remained to be entirely balanced then in 2063 the big announcement came thanks to a fortunate extended linia phase in the Pacific Ocean uptake of carbon from the
00:50:49
atmosphere by the biosphere had been larger than expected for a few years and as a result concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere had peaked at 515 parts per million almost double what
00:51:03
it was before the Industrial Revolution a 40% increase since the start of the century but starting in 2063 that number would begin to slowly
00:51:15
fall celebrations erupted around the world activists born around the turn of the century who had fought for this outcome for their entire lives were overcome with emotion the Eurovision song contest that year was won by a
00:51:27
gleeful Greta tumber for Sweden with her postpunk dance Anthem we dared national holidays were declared music was commissioned the world declared in Street parties and festivals and special sessions of government for the second
00:51:39
time this Century that we had done it but just because CO2 concentrations had peaked that did not mean that temperatures would now start to fall it would be a few decades before the planet
00:51:53
stabilized its temperature anomaly before the new anthropogenic climate would be revealed the question now was had we done it fast enough had the total
00:52:05
carbon emissions of the past three centuries produced a world that we and all other life on Earth could live in in the early 2060s the answer was unclear
00:52:17
the same year that Peak CO2 was announced it was discovered that 95% of all corals had now gone extinct remaining species were gradually transferred to captivity to preserve them for future generations and maybe
00:52:30
for eventual reintroduction to the oceans on land the situation was little better after Decades of air and water pollution habitat loss and overexploitation the United Nations environment program announced that the
00:52:43
world had hit rock bottom biodiversity of the 196 nations in the UN 162 were estimated to have the same average biodiversity as a multi-story car park
00:52:55
in some areas notably China and Brazil species were starting to make a recovery but this was far from the case everywhere the continuing loss of keystone species caused Regional food webs to go into freefall whether the
00:53:08
global food web was now stable enough to withand a shock event or indeed further decline remains an open question in 201100 the following year a quiet Victory went almost unremarked on
00:53:21
following extensive legislation of ozone depleting chemicals over the past Century the ozone layer had been restored to its pre-industrial concentration completely closing the so-called hole over the Antarctic this
00:53:34
legislation also had the effect of preventing hundreds of gigatons of carbon being emitted into the atmosphere unquestionably avoiding multiple Regional and Global tipping points being reached an environmental Saga that began
00:53:45
with the search for a safe refrigerant and nearly causing an unprecedented atmospheric disaster was finally closed the same decade the next big technical demonstration of nuclear fusion became
00:53:57
operational in Japan nearly infinite clean energy was now just a few decades away as the plant demonstrated that Fusion could be maintained and accounting for energy losses this time almost precisely as much energy was
00:54:10
produced than was expended the next technical demonstration would prove that this could be practical heat waves and droughts continued large swings in precipitation changed farming practices
00:54:23
the temperature anomaly continued to climb though more slowly now as two did sea levels over the course of the 2060 several island nations became
00:54:34
uninhabitable Vanuatu tuvalu then kabati and the Marshall Islands all after several years of desperate adaptation and many mournful ceremonies abandoned to the rising tide one exception to this
00:54:48
was the moldes which clung on throughout the decade in fact the Adams Resort an entirely floating luxury Hotel was constructed near Malle in 2061 advertising the last chance to see
00:55:00
holiday of a lifetime if you could pay for it the ultr rich cantel and staff of the resort were the last official residents of the MDES staying far longer than the indigenous population until
00:55:14
2072 also sinking beneath the waves in 2072 was Exxon Mobile the once Titanic fossil fuel producer responsible for delaying action and obscuring climate s once the most profitable company in the
00:55:27
world shuttered with as much fanfare as the closure of a regional Airline the world simply did not need its products anymore in a twist of fate the Exxon trademark was eventually bought to
00:55:39
auction by a small Utilities company in exitor England they of course exclusively used renewable electricity the shuttering of Exxon coincided by chance with a conversation
00:55:52
that had grown in volume over the social media and neuralink channels of the early 2070s who was responsible for the temperature anomaly that still climbed higher and higher as climate activism
00:56:04
pivoted from examining the future to examining the present it made sense to start examining the past especially in the global South where climate activism had become especially vocal in the previous decades and where the climate
00:56:16
crisis was most apparent the question of responsibility became more of a pressing talking point as more people were forced to migrate away from unbearing heat or from rains too unreliable for agriculture they quite naturally wanted
00:56:30
to find someone to blame this was of course the idea of the loss and damage fund to enable countries in the global North to pay reparations to those in the global South but while the mid-century
00:56:43
saw some progress some climate Justice to many in those regions hardest hit by the climate crisis it was not enough this culminated in Acra Ghana and the controversial IAL Trials of
00:56:56
2073 except trials is something of a misnomer there were defendants only they were long dead and Allowed no legal representation they were oil Executives
00:57:07
presidents Spin Doctors inventors figures overwhelmingly from Nations early to industrialize who were to some degree responsible for the climate crisis responsible for the loss of over
00:57:19
75 million lives due to pollution due to the water wars due due to drought and flood and famine 35 million deaths due to the delaying tactics of fossil fuel
00:57:32
companies companies responsible for the loss of as many as 5 million unique species of plants and animals countries who developed themselves with cheap dirty fuels and then pulled the ladder
00:57:44
up on the rest of the world loss and damage fund or no one of the reasons the trials took place in Ghana was because of its long history of exploitation first by the British and more recently
00:57:57
by the Chinese across Africa the Investments made by China and organizations such as the Sino African nuclear Consortium had increasingly been met with hostility yes it was very important to extract lithium and Cobalt
00:58:10
and colan and generate low carbon electricity Ganan said but it was important to do so in a way that respected human life the working and indeed living conditions of those who worked in the mines for lithium and ctan
00:58:23
had for far too long been far from adequate and Chinese multinational corporations far too reaching in their use of force as the century rolled on and Africa Rose in geopolitical importance the role of China as a
00:58:36
trading partner was thrown into question and reparations for past actions were demanded by many nations who had now been effectively colonized not once but twice these disputes continue of course
00:58:51
to the present day by the 2080s for the first time in human history emissions of all greenhouse gases were net negative while CO2 had been net negative for a short
00:59:03
while now largely thanks to aforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage methane had stubbornly held on the problematic Source was agriculture which had been it must be said something
00:59:15
of an unexpected Victory throughout the century even when global population peaked at 10.4 billion people in 2081 food systems were able to just about
00:59:27
feed everyone this was partly due to improved efficiencies in food Logistics vastly reducing food waste and partly due to the global shift to plant-based diets a key tenant of the international
00:59:39
climate movement apart from being more calorie efficient on a systems level and requiring less land the shift also spectacularly reduced methane emissions Global agriculture had certainly been tested droughts and heat waves had led
00:59:52
to Regional crop failures most years and in the case of India in 2078 a failed Monsoon and inadequate planning resulted in the final overthrow of the national government but with the breaking of seed
01:00:04
monopolies expansion of the United Nations food program along with shifts in diets despite fears of fragility the global food system was able to weather all but the strongest storms of the 21st century admittedly at a terrible cost to
01:00:18
the fertility of the world's soils an issue that remains in100 but with a final push to produce me consumption in the 2070s agricultural methane emissions finally also fell to
01:00:29
net negative and with this the global temperature anomaly gradually stabilized the world scientists announced in 2086 was now
01:00:41
1.8 de C warmer than in pre-industrial times limiting warming to 1 and a half degrees had slipped out of sight a long time ago but thanks to the rapid actions starting in 2014 4 and the breaking of
01:00:56
the fossil fuel economy 2 degre of warming had been avoided a new climate had been established it appeared scientists said with more than a slight sigh of relief that further tipping
01:01:09
points had been avoided careful monitoring was still needed but with any luck the global temperature anomaly would fall quickly enough over the 22nd and 23rd centuries to avoid total melt
01:01:21
of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets preventing multiple meters of sea level rise in fact total Oblivion had also been avoided in the most unlikely
01:01:33
place Coral losses now at over 99% seemed to have stabilized leaving Corals in critical condition fragments and dead reefs were scattered all over
01:01:46
the ocean with one Reef remaining in moderately healthy condition in the kores it naturally became the most most protected place in the world's oceans the world certainly looked very
01:01:59
different from the early Century by the 2090s the vast majority of coral species were now held in captivity in the face of Uncertain seasonal snowfall the last ski resort in the Alps was abandoned in
01:02:12
2091 the Himalayas now being the ski destination for the world's Rich border conflicts over water and Arab land scarcely became news anymore being so common to culosis was finally eradicated
01:02:26
in 2093 an estimated quarter of a billion people identified as climate refugees The Icarus Fusion plant in Buenos Aries initiated Plasma in 2094
01:02:37
and reached an overall efficiency of 99 some things never change when in 2096 a heat wave in Siberia caused by a huge Meander in the jet stream combined with an alino year released a vast quantity
01:02:51
of methane into the atmosphere it was carefully monitored an enormous network of global sensors and scientists were aimed at what was delicately termed the great burp the World Meteorological
01:03:03
organization accurately forecast its progress around the world the net radiative forcing and warming it would cause an estimated how long it would delay a return to a pre-industrial climate a well oiled well-funded and
01:03:16
internationally respected scientific institution was able to treat what was once the norm as an interesting oneoff and then in
01:03:27
2099 an amazing Discovery was made on an isolated atle in the South Pacific hundreds of miles from the nearest inhabited Island a previously
01:03:39
undiscovered pristine coral reef it was unclear how exactly The Reef had survived humans altering the climate and the oceans seemingly this was the
01:03:51
result of some adaptation a new configuration of interdependent organisms making their way collectively through the warm acidified
01:04:04
Waters in 201100 The intergovernmental panel on climate change released its special report in it they detailed a world that had warmed by 1.8 de C whose Seas were 60 cm higher than they were at
01:04:18
the start of the century that was missing an ice cap in summer but they also Det tell the world that would have been if not for Rapid decarbonization with four Global tipping
01:04:30
points reached with Europe possibly thrown back into the Ice Age with hundreds of millions displaced or deceased due to continued use of fossil fuels propped up by government subsidies
01:04:43
and it detailed the environmental challenges that would define The Next Century after all history does not stop here there will be a world beyond the year 2100 100 and the actions we take
01:04:56
now will shape the century to come we have demonstrated in the past that we can overcome immense challenges environmental and otherwise but it will require concerted effort and courage yes
01:05:09
from individuals making informed choices but more so from government at Urban National and international levels the challenge may be great but so is our
01:05:21
capacity for change a statement that is as true today as it was a century ago this video was a synoptic
01:05:34
retrospective from 2100 due to its broad scope it could not be deep with details and O to the Future being so difficult to predict could not hope to be accurate either regardless I hope that it is
01:05:47
instructive that it shows a path forwards in different sectors that not all decision made this Century will be the right ones and that key decisions are made by the public not by
01:06:01
individuals and also that waiting until 2044 isn't necessary it also would not have been possible without the contributions of over 2 dozen individuals to present a possible
01:06:13
plausible even if not likely version of the 21st century I spoke to over two dozen experts in energy and economics geopolitics and activism transport and media and of course weather and climate
01:06:26
some of their names are on screen right now a key collaborator who helped shape a realistic path for the climate this century was Professor Dan Mitchell of the University of Bristol together we wrote the key bullet points of how the
01:06:39
climate could change this Century of course however those bullet points had to become a story to see how our discussion became a story and how things might have gone a little differently you
01:06:51
can watch Professor Mitchell and I in conversation in a special video on nebula nebula is home to some of the most original thought-provoking educational video content on the Internet it's a platform built by
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subscription again that's go. nebula.jpg so much for watching this video this has been an intensely personal project for me the last video of mine my dad ever watched was the
01:09:32
previous installment in this series The Decade we lost Earth that video painted Humanity at its worst I wanted this next episode to be a hopeful one of a future
01:09:44
that he will never see but I think represents Humanity as he believed it could be I wanted him to know that a happy ending does exist as I previously
01:09:58
stated thanks musco to my many collaborators on this project but also to my many patrons who directly support me every month and allow me to make ambitious expensive projects like this one patrons get access to exclusive
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share this video with your friends and family as a possible path through this coming Century if you enjoyed it please do also give it a like and let me know your thoughts in the comments thank you again for watching and I'll see you in
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the next one
End of transcript