Video: Earth System Boundaries For A Just World On A Safe Planet (DocDrop)

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hello hey everybody fantastic to see everyone here we'll just ask do we have anyone else that needs to come into the room Cecilia or are we

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we're good we are just on just on one o'clock okay thank you everyone for coming today I'm just going to bring up my list of very large items to run through quickly before we start

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Okay so welcome and thank you for joining us for this event uh system boundaries for a safe sorry a just world on a safe Planet I'm Maya rubbermark future Earth and

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I'll be helping lead you through the proceedings today with my colleague Frederick Mobay you can wink there yeah many of you know him already um but before we open I want to draw you

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to this big slide so we are about to go through a lot of science today that is currently still not published the Embargo will be today at five o'clock at the end of the event so we ask if

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everyone could please not share photos you're free to you know take notes take pictures but please don't share until the close of the event today so um it's very important part of the terms

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with the journal thank you um it's a really rich program so we're going to try to keep to time and first of all I want to welcome to this stage

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um Professor Lars Bergstrom who is the first vice president of the Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences please love take thank you thank you dear participants

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on behalf of the royal Swedish Academy of Sciences and as vice president of this Academy I wish you all welcome to this timely and exciting Symposium in our beautiful

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Bayer Hall the academy has a long history since 1739 when Carlos lines was one of the founders of the academy

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and the prime objective still today is to support and Foster good evidence-based science and bring it to the General Public one important way to do this and what

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the academy is probably most well known for internationally is to avoid Nobel prizes in physics and chemistry which is has it has done since 1901.

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an important person in the early years of the Nobel work was actually cervante arenus who himself received the chemistry prize in 1903 but who nowadays is most famous for

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already in 1896. more than well more than 100 years ago he computed he calculated by hand the global warming effect of carbon dioxide

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in a heroic effort it took him almost a year and did everything by Anne hundreds of thousands calculations and the results still stand amazingly so

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this was a real heroic effort and of course this was much improved then over the years and by among others manabe and hustleman who received the 2021 Nobel

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Prize in physics the academy also has a long history of hosting the secretaries in the field of global change research the late Swedish meteorologist but

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bulleen was chairing the first ipcc between 1988 and 1997. he also helped establish the international geosphere biosphere program igbp at the Academy in

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the mid 1980s and idbp was hosted at the Academy for some 25 years when the international science Council established future Earth and one of the global offices of future

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Earth as you may know is here in Stockholm and has been here since 2013. again showing the strong support of the academy for Global change research

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and I now gave the word to the Global Hub director of future world Sweden Wendy broadgate for some introductory remarks about future Earth and also something about the Earth commission thank you

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keep doing thank you losh [Music] it's so great to welcome everybody here to the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences it's great to see such a full room of

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people from all over the world both scientists and different stakeholders to present the work of the earth Commission so what is the earth Commission it was a assessment set up in 2019 with

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a goal to quantify the safe and just Earth system boundaries for people in the planet and it's the first major census of this work will be published later today at five o'clock

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the commission work also reviews methodologies for translation of these boundaries and to downscale them and also reviews levers and barriers for

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systems transformation so the the synthesis or the art commission is hosted by Future Earth the world's biggest network of global sustainability scientists and coordinated from its Offices here in the

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academy um more than 60 scientists have been involved in the earth commission as co-authors and contributors to its working groups and the scientific Secretariat and many of those people are here today so we're delighted to share

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this work with you as scientists we have a responsibility to share our knowledge with Society so the Earth commission it provides the scientific foundation stone of the

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Global Commons Alliance which is supporting businesses cities and citizens and countries to accelerate systems change and become better Guardians of the Global Commons and we'll be hearing from friends in the

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alliance today as well thank you I was going to show that slide of all the people in the earth commission but now finally I somber moment

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um I'd like to pay tribute to former colleague and friend and Mentor will Stefan who passed away earlier this year he was director of igbp working in this

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building from 1998 to 2004. convening workshops and syntheses like the Earth Commission he he made huge contributions and he was one of the the leaders that made big

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contributions to developing the concept of the anthropocene that humans are the biggest driver of change on the planet um developed through things like the Great accelerations and the first synthesis of igbp he was also one of the

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fathers of planetary boundaries and Hot House Earth and we at the Earth commission would like to dedicate our work to him and the Symposium to him thank you

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[Applause] thank you Wendy we now have also a video address from one of the co-chairs of the earth commission Professor jindai who is also one of the directors at the Chinese

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Academy of Sciences now this should play distinguish the guests and the friends your colleges first of all I would like to Express women's welcome to all of you who

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participate in Symposium of the Earth's commission at the zoo Sweden Academy of Sciences first commission is the international team of the high level scientists

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commented by Earth features the objective of the Earth's commission is integrating different natural systems and social systems

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to Define yourself and just targets investigates how the global biophysical countries need to be a just people to ensure a safe and

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just future for people under the planet and the planetary Earth and the inter dependent safe and just the planetary targets need

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to be defined to safeguard the ability of a spirophysical systems to continue to function and provide the services all

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of living being ours such targets need to avoid the significant harm to humans communities countries

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and they can also approving us from person keeping points for the planet the choices we make today we determine

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the future of ours and our future Generations in the face of the challenge no one in the world should stay out of it

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the first major scientific report of the Earth's commission will be published at the end of this today I'm looking forward to interacting with scientific colleges on the commission

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first to set the results it's a Pity that I cannot attend the today's symposium and I oh all of you my friends and

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colleges we enjoying in today activities and have a grilled Harvest thank you very much [Applause]

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and so now on to our next presentation if I would just like to ask Johanna joita to join us on the stage I am going to ask forgiveness from the audience today to keep to time I'm not going to

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be able to go through everybody's affiliations but we have listed everyone on the um on the slide so that you can see the extent of the broad scientific experience here so I will hand over

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right now thank you both yeah I can stand like this so thanks thanks Maya and and wonderful to be here this is uh just like Wendy said it's quite a quite a breakthrough moment this is three years of work with colleagues

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from the social sciences and Natural Sciences across the world to really put forward a state-of-the-art scientific assessment of safe and just boundaries for Humanity's future on Earth and I

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think it is really worth to um um place this in the context also of where we're standing today at the Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences where just as Wendy pointed out much of the evidence requiring a safe and just space

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for Humanity on Earth which emanates from the evidence that we are today putting the stability and the resilience of the entire Earth system at risks largely originates from Decades of

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research here through the international geosphere biosphere program and the future earth science Community showing that we're deep into the anthropocene with all the hockey stick pressures will Stefan was one of the leading scientists

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putting forward this this research the stability of the Holocene which is today verified that the last 12 000 years is a unique reference point for us in order to guide our futures as modern

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civilizations on earth and the fact that we're approaching tipping points putting all this together is the evidence that placed ourselves in a point to propose of establishing an earth commission the

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first holistic people Planet Science assessment in the world the unique breakthrough here is that for the first time we're measuring for each of the earth system boundaries not only safety

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but also Justice within the same unit and therefore the Justice developments have been if anything the real big big development forward straight up so basically we are arguing that people and

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Planet are interdependent and that our behavior is undermining the critical life support systems of the planet which in turn then harms humans and it causes major injustices like deaths and disease

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and therefore we need an assessment of the safe and just boundaries that takes into account Earth system resilience as well as human well-being and preventing

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significant harm to humans so let's start with the safe assessment um the aims of what will be published what you'll have available later today in the nature research article is is

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therefore summarizing both the assessment on the safer system boundaries and the justice system boundaries in terms of significant harm and we are integrating these and the safe and just Earth system boundaries Define the safe space and we're using

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the the one of these two that that provides us the most stringent lower level as the definition of the integrated boundary level so that's what gives us the space but let's start with

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with the safe part um I'd like to just emphasize also that the planetary boundary science has identified nine large biophysical systems and processes that regulates scientific evidence shows regulates the

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stability and resilience of the planet the Earth commission took five of these nine as Focus areas to Define the safe and just boundaries

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the choice of these was to have an integration between biosphere and climate the choice I would do is was to pick those that are closest to humans and and human well-being on the ground and also to have the ability of

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concretizing quantitative safe and just boundaries for the operational scale so to move from Global to local levels the five you see here it's climate

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it's aerosols air pollution basically the air pollution nutrient Cycles so both nitrogen and phosphorus freshwater cycle and biosphere integrity and in the biosphere Integrity we integrate both

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biodiversity and land so these are the five domain areas where we've developed eight indicators for these five if we start with the safe boundaries the work on climate lands in

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confirming both the ipcc and the planetary boundary size that 1.5 degrees Celsius is the safe boundary level Beyond which we're likely to cross a number of tipping points and we'll come

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back to the Tipping Point analysis later in the seminar today on nature it's a major step forward of being able to identify and quantify safe targets both for intact nature the

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remaining roughly 40 to 50 percent of nature which is still intact but also quantifying the minimum level of ecosystem functions in managed nature like agricultural lands so both of these

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are included and both of these are Quantified for fresh water we have set safe and just boundaries both for surface water and for groundwater again very operational at Watershed and

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Community level then nitrogen and phosphorus quantifying these largely verified by the earlier research on critical loads and planetary boundary size quantifying these for safety and

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and giving a full integration for aerosol pollutants this has been a major challenge to get that both in terms of the scientific evidence of how air pollution the dimming of the lower

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atmosphere impacts on rain painful patterns at the larger Regional scale but also how it impacts at that local level and giving quantifications for both so we've been able to come very far

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on giving these quantifications for all these five areas with an eight with eight indicators and you'll find them um you know very well spelled out in the in the nature paper they'll be presented

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later today and then we have the just boundaries and the quest is our safe are safe so just and we and we argue that just boundaries also minimize significant harm to humans and so basically what we have done is we've

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tried to create a theorization of justice and our Justice begins with the idea that we will focus on ideal rather than conservative Justice we take into account a recognition Justice which is looking at other people's perspectives

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on Justice and epistemic Justice which is looking at other people's knowledge on various issues and we look at inter-specy and Justice and Earth system stability

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intergenerational Justice and intra-generational Justice um in terms of process and procedural Justice we look at access to information decision making Civic space and courts

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so this paper is sort of trying to meet the access to information part of justice for all of you in terms of substantive Justice we look at access to basic minimum resources as

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well as the allocation of the remaining resources responsibilities between countries and peoples and cities and the division of harm between various regions of the world now those are the elements

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of justice and we apply this through a process of goals and means in terms of goals we are looking at the boundaries which we are just going to discuss the two of us now we're also looking at what does it mean

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to have just minimum access for the world and uh Professor diameter liverman will discuss that subsequently and we look at means and in terms of means we're looking at transformation of

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the global system to live within these boundaries as well as translation down to actors such as business and cities in terms of um uh trying to explain to you how we

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did this well a safe boundary at 1.5 degree Centigrade allows already for significant harm to more than 200 million people and we argue that to avoid exposure of more than 10 million

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people being harmed by climate change a much more stringent Target of one degree Centigrade is needed so that is why our just boundary for climate is one degree and therefore our

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safe and just boundary is one degree Centigrade if you look at nutrients then for phosphorus are safe and just boundaries coincide but for nitrogen we have a more stringent boundary

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going further to aerosols at the global level the safe and just boundary coincide but at the local level we feel that we need to have a stringent uh

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aerosol boundary if you look at all the areas that we have then basically what we see is that we have safe and just boundaries coinciding for intact nature managed

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nature surface runoff groundwater as well as for phosphorus but that in fact Justice ends up making new nitrogen aerosol pollutants and climate much more

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stringent uh also we combine these Global boundaries with local standards the question is have they been breached

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so that is the the big proof in the end but just before coming to to which as an earth system scientist um and and the colleagues on the earth commission we find it very reassuring that when integrating this with the

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social sciences many of the boundaries come out with the same level for justice and safety which shows that environmental stability is fundamental also for human equity and justice but we

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have a number of boundaries where actually you hit the just levels earlier than the safety level basically that you knock over large numbers of people before you risk permanent irreversible

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changes for your system so this is in a way showing why we need a fully integrated people Planet approach to be able to guide our future in the anthropocene the question is where are we then well our assessment is shown

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here for the full safe and just boundary assessment so you see the the the full space and actually the the safe and just boundary levels for climate and nitrogen are the blue lines that are the ones

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that that are in in relevant here seven of the a indicators that we have Quantified or outside of the safe and just space the only one that is inside for the global level is aerosol loading

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so air pollutants but again as jerita says if you take that down to the local level you find Regions where even the aerosol pollutant level is outside of a safe and just level so this is a

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confirming much of the research in the ipcc ipbs and the plantar boundary science that we are truly continuing a journey of high risk in the anthropocene undermining biosphere resilience and at

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the same time being in the midst of a climate crisis now we've been able which is thanks to the fact that we have scalable boundaries to bring this down to an integrated assessment at the pixel

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level of how the breaching of these safe and just boundaries distribute themselves spatially now what you see here is the darker the red the larger the number of of safe and just or system boundaries that are transgressed that

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are breached but it's not an assessment of who is causing this preaching it's an assessment of the impact of the breaching affected of the breaching and what you see which is not surprising is

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that large parts of the developing world are at a large extent victims of the breaching of these safe and just boundaries compared to large parts of the of the more wealthy wealthy North

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uh the question then is how can we live within these safe and just Earth system boundaries the transformation points to achieve this so this particular ly is only part of the work of work or commission and basically what I'm trying

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to show you in this slide goes beyond some of the work that we did in this particular paper the red storyline that you see there is the safe boundary the blue it's a just boundary where the just boundary is more stringent than the safe

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boundary at the bottom you'll see a blue dotted line which is minimum access so what happens if you provide everybody in the world with minimum access to water food energy infrastructure and housing

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and then you look at what are the remaining resources and that's shown in the green green area in the safe and just Corridor and basically what we are arguing is that if we want to live within these safe and just boundaries we

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need to meet the minimum access needs of all people but we also need to have large-scale redistribution which complements the role of Technologies in also enhancing efficiency of resource

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use and all this has to be part of our transmitted process and also be translated down to actors such as cities and businesses we advance our research advances over

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existing research and perhaps you would like to take this on yeah and I just want to kind of come back where we started as a concluding remark that that uniqueness here what Toyota just showed in the previous slide is that we're quantifying and measuring access Justice

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harm Justice and safety along the same units in order to have a measurable pathway for our transformation towards a safe and just future so that is the unique here that's how it complements

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planetary boundaries or donut economics and and other type of Frameworks we're also really really focusing in on science for scalability to have it operational with the science-based

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target Network for example represented here today and the ability to to to translate this into work that can be scaled the next phase for this will to a large extent focus on continuing the

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translation and the transformation Pathways into the future so we think that this is a a really important step forward in the global sustainable development policy and development

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agenda in the world to sum up a safe and just framework means that we have Quantified safe and just Earth system boundaries we say that some just boundaries are much more

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stringent than the safe boundaries seven of the eight globally defined safe and just boundaries have been breached a global level and many locally defined safe and just boundaries have been breached in many parts of the world uh

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ESB must also be justly achieved through just access for all as well as just transformation supported by translation to businesses and cities thank you thank you [Applause]

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[Music] thank you very much Juliet on Johan I now have the pleasure of going a little bit further into the details of all of the system boundaries please welcome to

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the floor a very very wonderful colleague David Armstrong Makai who is here from the UK today with us David please take over there cool thanks very much and thanks Johanna Andrew heater for the introduction so

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I'm going to be talking quickly about the safe and just climate system boundaries so as we've already seen 1.5 degrees is our safe Earth system boundary and that's a number that is supported by

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various different strands of evidence uh including climate tipping points but also reflect some of the ipcc research as well but the the just boundary is lower it's at one degrees as uh they were presenting earlier so what's the basis

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of these so for the safe climate boundary one of the main things we were looking at is recent assessment we did of climate tipping points this is shown in this map here showing 16 of the different climate typic elements we

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identified in that recent paper and science published in September that the Earth commission funded and you can see the different color dots reflect at what global warming levels some of these tipping points might occur so in red in

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particular you have ones that could occur below two degrees you have things like the Greenland ice sheet collapse we have the Boreal permafrost of Route 4 we have the West Antarctic ice sheet collapse we have low latitude coral reef die off as well and

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Bearing Sea ice as well all of these are possible below two degrees of warming and in fact five of these climate tipping points are already possible now at current global warming of about 1.2

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degrees and four of those become likely Beyond 1.5 degrees of warming so that's a really key part of our Earth system boundary being set at 1.5 but we also have past climate variability is also

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informing this as well so we know that Beyond one degrees we're going beyond the Holocene 1.5 degrees is going Beyond even the warm interglacials over the past couple of million years we also have biosphere functioning as

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well in particular thinking about carbon sinks Beyond 1.5 degrees some key carbon sinks are transitioning from being sources from being sinks to sources and that helps to make climate change worse

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and together all of these things are really moving towards a point where there's systemic disruption with climate system not just some climate impacts but really sort of systemic issues we also include the long-term committed changes

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some of these things so ice sheets and biomes in particular they're very long-term changes that play out over hundreds of thousands of years and those are as important to consider some of the really near-term impacts as well

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and finally in terms of geographical scale tipping points have mostly Regional impacts some of them are more Global but the ESB we set is global in nature moving on to the just side of things

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this is to do with the people a number of people exposed to significant harm so you've already seen this figure before but just to go through it in a little more detail we have in purple we have the extreme heat this is the number of people exposed to mean annual

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temperature greater than 29 degrees and you can see that soon after you reach one degrees it starts shooting up and by the time you get to the 2.7 degrees that we're heading towards under current policies uh over a billion

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people are being exposed to extreme heat levels in the orange we have the wet bulb temperature so this is a combination of heat and humidity and that has really severe impacts on human health

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and the Orange Line shows the number of people exposed to a wet bulb temperature will go over 35 degrees you can see that that orange line is gradually increasing from around about

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zero zero degrees warming and gradually Beyond one degrees you're starting to see more more people exposed to this wet bulb extremes the Blue Line shows sea level rise the

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solid line is at sea level rise you'd see by 2100 but because ice sheet metal is such a long-term commitment the dotted line shows the long-term multi-centennial after hundreds of thousands of years how many people being

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exposed to sea level rise you can see how much it shoots up Beyond current warming of 1.2 degrees by the time you get to two hundreds of millions of people will definitely being committed to being exposed to significant harm from sea level rise

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and that's the basis of both our safe and just uh climate Earth system boundaries Peter [Applause] thank you very much I will continue with

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the biosphere and for biosphere we have two different boundaries and we need two boundaries to capture the multiple facets of nature of

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the biosphere of biodiversity because the biosphere is about ecosystems it's also about species genetic diversity but also about the services that a biosphere

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provides to the Earth system stability and to people directly so while in general normally when we talk about biodiversity we often look at protected areas we look at big

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wilderness but as we found in here we also need to look Beyond these real natural areas to the nature that is in the Landscapes that we live

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in the Landscapes that provide our Foods because we're dependent in the functioning of the earth system on the trees that are in agricultural lands because there's more trees in

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agricultural land than in Amazon all sequestering carbon but also providing habitats to pollinators pest control and other important functions and also

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providing shade in cities lowering Urban heat island effects benefiting people in their health so we need to look at these multiple facets so that's why we have two

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boundaries the first one focuses on this larger natural areas where the natural processes are largely intact that doesn't mean excluding humans completely

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but it means managing those areas in ways that the natural functions are largely remaining function there's quite a lot of scientific

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evidence that the current areas of nature that we are left are not sufficient to avoid irreversible loss of species or to

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are also not sufficient to support important Earth system functions and functions think about that the Amazon where we're at the area of reaching a Tipping Point of deforestation so the

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biosphere very much interacting with the climatic system there protecting natural ecosystem area is also more than just protecting protected

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areas 30 percent targets of protected areas are a means to protect remaining natural areas and restores about them but they are insufficient to have the

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whole system so we need more than that then moving to what we call the functional Integrity boundary and we especially apply that boundary in areas

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where we have managed Landscapes cities agricultural Landscapes forestry Landscapes and what we found that in those Landscapes we need a certain amount of nature semi-natural elements

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small patches of forests small patches of wetlands that are needed to make these landscape functional how did we determine that number we made an analysis of the important ecosystem

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services in those areas and here you see in this graph what we found although there is a lot of variation what you will see for important functions like pollination Pest and Disease Control

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health and cultural benefits soil erosion water quality we see if we have less than 10 percent of same natural habitats in our managed Landscapes we

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don't find those functions to be sufficient to supporting the functioning of those Landscapes anymore and people will face a shortage of the functioning in those Landscapes we also see that for

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some functions like soil erosion control in very steep sloping lands we might need more nature so it's a context dependent boundary but at the same time we see a general pattern that across all

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those Services we need at least 20 to 25 percent of the landscape being dedicated to Green spaces to have those Landscapes functioning for people

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and there's another important aspect to that we need this everywhere why do we need it everywhere it's because a lot of those functions are dependent on mobile species if you think about like

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pollination done by bees and bumblebees and other pollinators they don't fly from South Africa to to Europe to pollinate our crops we need them within the natural habitats for those species

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within distance of where we need those services so this is also where the just as safe come together we need those habitats for our Earth system functioning they regulate water they

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ensure infiltration of water towards the groundwater systems and replenish those but we also need people to be able to access those services to benefit from regulation of water flow avoiding flood

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risks and avoiding from pollination of their crops and avoiding that we need to use unhealthy the pesticides to control diseases in our agricultural lands so

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this is a global boundary which is needed at all places around the world and are we there we made rough assessments based on high resolution data to estimate how much of

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semi-natural habitat do we find within each square kilometer of the world and what you see here is in the yellowish and light green colors we see that important Landscapes do not have enough

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semi-natural habitats to ensure it's functioning in those Landscapes we are dependent on external inputs that might be harmful for people that might take a lot of fossil fuels to to produce and

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that are not always resilient Solutions in areas of change and not provide Injustice to people and we see that these yellowish areas they are spread boats in places with very vulnerable

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people but also so in places in Landscapes where there's wealthy people that might also have strong benefits and Better Lives of engaging more with nature and having more nature to serve

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their grounds thank you very much and we'll now move to Christopher Corden and he will bring us to the next boundaries on water

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[Applause] this one okay well good afternoon to all of you I would like to mention that I have a co-chair

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in the name of Prof Stuart Bunn of Griffith University Australia who unfortunately could not be here with us and I'd also like to acknowledge

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Ben Stuart Costa who did a lot of the work behind us I was told not to look at this screen but this screen is not working so um

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to just to reiterate what has been said before in terms of what uh boundaries are and what is safe and what is just you find in the case of water

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the safe and just boundaries are the same now water is a kind of special because water is a great diluter

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but is also a great transporter so when you're talking about global matters you have to realize that water

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moves some of the nutrients the pollutants it moves also the issues of climate

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I'll have to go on with this yeah so um I I'm sorry I can't read this I will have to move not a problem I'm used to this

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yeah so we we are looking to protect fresh water systems and those of you who are familiar with

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the sdg6 you realize the targets of fresh water available for all this is very aspirational because that has been mentioned already there are

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differences depending on where you are in the globe but water provides Fisheries we have potable water that we need to drink and we take for granted

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in many parts of the world and then you have all the issues related to biodiversity freshwater ecosystems actually maybe David will disagree with me but

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they are the most impacted in terms of uh problems with biodiversity loss it's also been pointed out to me that in our analysis of blue water

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we did not thank you very much we did not mention or do not include wetlands and that I'm sure will be included in the next Earth commission too

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so the question is can we live in a safe and just planet when it comes to water and what we did was to analyze

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globally how much of water has been affected in terms of disruption that is the anthropogenic interruption of flow

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and we said that where you have natural flow altered by at least 20 percent then that boundary has been breached

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the safe and just boundary for surface water requires that all the water in a particular catchment should not be altered by 20 as we said

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at the beginning the safe and just boundaries are the same but we know that this has been breached and this is a map from the Asia Pacific region and what you see

00:42:12

in the the darkest places are where you have significant changes in monthly rainfall above the norm

00:42:23

now given that these areas are among the most highly populated areas of the globe you can imagine the number of people who are

00:42:36

impacted we are estimating between 1.2 and 1.6 billion people are living beyond the safe boundary now can we live

00:42:49

in a safe and just Planet when it comes to water when it comes to groundwater the safe boundary is when we are looking at areas where the amount of extraction

00:43:01

of water is higher than its replenishment places like Florence in Italy have had a dropping groundwater of over 12

00:43:15

25 meters over the past hundred years due to extraction of groundwater and that is of course compounded by the fact that you often start getting into saline water which means the water that

00:43:29

you do take up as groundwater is no longer fit for purpose the safe and just boundary is the same as the safe as I said and this has been also significantly

00:43:42

breached the map there where we are not supposed to tweet or message is coming from a paper by Ben Stewart Costa in press right now

00:43:52

where all those areas in red areas where we feel that this has been breached now what can we do about it because it's very well and good to complain

00:44:07

and one of the problems we have working with decision makers is the the gloom and doom of the climate and scientists we're always complaining that we're all going to die

00:44:20

but we can we can fix it maybe not in my lifetime but certainly in Beyond so we have to look at it in two ways the supply side

00:44:32

I how much water is going out and the demand side how much water we are taking and we suggest seven approaches one is inter Basin transfer

00:44:46

which for me as a limnologist is the worst case scenario because with inter Basin transfer you also transfer unwanted whoops

00:44:59

biodiversity we need to shift between groundwater and surface water best way is to transition to a green water agriculture or climate smart agriculture

00:45:14

and the last on the supply side is to improve water quality and treatment I mean told that if you take water from the tap in the rain

00:45:27

and you look at the transition from Switzerland down to France what has gone through the human body at least nine times from drinking water to excretion and

00:45:39

treated and down that's why I live in Ghana the demand side transformation is we need to increase the efficiency of water use

00:45:54

a lot of the problems we have in cities is the the loss of water through outmoded pipes outmoded

00:46:06

Plumbing Systems is over 50 percent and that is all a waste of not just the water but the energy used to treat the water the chemicals used to treat the water and of course the time

00:46:20

and of course to increase the productivity of water from all sources and with that I would like to hand over to Chris Chris was the king

00:46:37

that was great and thank you I'm going to be talking about the nutrient boundaries and it's appropriate that it comes right after water that the nutrients are deeply bound with

00:46:52

all the comments that you heard about water there are system boundaries are not independent they work together I want to make just one comment on this slide when you look at nitrogen that

00:47:05

green line should be a blue line for just boundary you saw that before but couldn't get this fixed we think about nutrients we're thinking about nitrogen and phosphorus

00:47:18

one of the key sources of those in the environment comes from fertilizers and so the focus in setting the safe boundary was agricultural Surplus looking at beyond what is used and

00:47:31

removed by crops so a very important focus and there's ways obviously this could be extended to think about other ways that look at the other sources of nitrogen and phosphorus

00:47:43

in the environment it's important to look at the Surplus because it drives environmental degradation we know that excess nutrients from fertilizers Drive pollution and soils

00:47:57

fresh water that you just heard about in the ocean so much of the pollution that is damaging our fresh water comes from nitrogens and phosphorus in the environment and from fertilizers

00:48:10

because these are intimately connected with certain practices and locations the boundaries were set at local to Global scales specifically for phosphorus

00:48:22

when looking at the safe limit we're looking at eutrophication the basically the death of waterways there's a note here about how the scientific literature was used to

00:48:34

calculate the losses surpluses and inputs harm comes from the eutrophication that affects our ecosystems their services It ultimately affects

00:48:45

biodiversity loss and affects fresh water quality as you just heard from Chris and then looking at safe we're looking at the human health consequences of

00:48:56

impacts on losses of fresh water quality as you saw on the previous slide two slides ago that the safe and just boundaries are the same for phosphorus

00:49:08

and they are outside the limits nitrogen is also a contributor to eutrophication we have a sign here of algal blooms

00:49:21

which are problem around the world again the scientific literature was used to model the Surplus and the subglobal loss eutrophication again leads to damage to

00:49:33

ecosystems the toxial toxic algal blooms I just showed and as you saw in the slide for the boundaries that the nitrogen Earth system boundary is just outside

00:49:45

the safe and just and that the just is more constraining than the safe and finally Transformations are needed to make sure that we reduce excess

00:49:57

fertilizer use we also have to look at unrecycled sewage because it's a major source of phosphorus ways that we do obtain access to phosphorus include mining that's often

00:50:10

quite damaging manufacturing nitrogen-based fertilizers requires quite a lot of energy therefore increases greenhouse gas emissions which affects the climate Target you heard about from David and there's ways to

00:50:23

replace that by thinking about for example green ammonia something that has been promoted quite heavily certainly in parts of Europe and as you heard from joyita early on Innovation and redistribution are needed

00:50:37

thank you thank you very much Chris Paula please take the floor okay this is the apartment okay um

00:51:03

yeah thanks for uh I mean thanks to Maya Lisa for organizing this and upfront I must also thank Caroline tejna and juhita for you know working behind the

00:51:17

scene on this particularly the just component of this aerosol loading um okay so you know aerosol you know Johan already indicated that it's really a

00:51:30

complex stuff uh the problem is unlike well-mixed green greenhouse gases like CO2 or uh methane which cause the climate problem uh aerosol is highly localized and not only that uh it has

00:51:45

you know both reflective aerosols and absorbing aerosols so which makes the at least even the safe component you know the quantification of the safe boundary a bit harder because of its in you know

00:51:57

the basically heterogeneity um so what we had to what we have in this is basically for uh for the safe boundary at least you know the regional

00:52:09

as well as Global boundaries were defined and in the case of just boundary it was mainly focused on the health implications of aerosols and um so finally I have put here this you know

00:52:23

what is this safe and just as boundaries since the you know just boundary is stricter than safe boundaries We have basically chosen this less than 15

00:52:35

microgram per meter cube PM 2.5 so I'll just come to this you know what these are you know aod as well as PM 2.5 in the next day on our two slides um so basically I think I just you know

00:52:49

I have to actually go back and look at this aerosol problem in the context of planetary boundary problem um so in 2009 is a paper led by Johann

00:53:00

uh basically you know the aerosol planetary boundary was identified but you know no number was given unlike in the case of climate change for you know Global means surface temperature or CO2

00:53:12

no boundary was a you know the Quantified for rearosol uh but uh luckily in the in the next planetary pb2 the regional boundary of the you know

00:53:25

you already 0.25 to you know 0.5 was identified how does aerosol basically you know impact the climate system basically what happens is if you have a lot of aerosol loading it affects the sunlight that reaches the surface which

00:53:39

basically inhibits evapor transpiration and basically it affects the hydrological cycle you know so basically in South Asia and also in the tropical Monsoon region this could be a serious problem because you know millions of

00:53:51

people you know actually depend on um you know precip is a precipitation in the monsoon region ah so but you know even in that second paper the global boundary was not defined so I would

00:54:06

consider you know the novelty in this particular assessment is basically we could actually come out with a global uh aerosol boundary which is basically based on uh the difference in the aerosol loading between the Northern

00:54:19

Hemisphere and the southern hemisphere in fact some of these ideas had a Genesis from the recent ipcc report which basically said the you know some of the northern hemisphere Monsoon

00:54:30

regions they had reduced Monsoon precipitation from 1950s to 80s because of the northern hemisphere you know there are also plenty of aerosol emissions in there you know the last 50 years or so

00:54:43

um so um based on you know then of course in the last 10 or 15 years there has been a lot of literature that looks at this inter hemispheric difference in the aerosol loading and so that provided

00:54:55

some clue about you know how to define the global boundary in this case and another novelty in this in this particular paper you know in this commission work is that also Health implications of aerosol was actually

00:55:09

addressed okay so as I indicated you know uh so in the case so let's look at what is safe so safe basically you know how does it affect the physical climate system so in

00:55:22

the case of uh you know as I said in the regional case basically you know your assault can affect the water cycle in the case of uh Global it can basically shift the you know Monsoon precipitation either to towards the Northern

00:55:34

Hemisphere or the North or the uh towards the southern hemisphere so the metric that is used is basically a body aod is basically uh aerosol Optical depth so it's a basically a metric for

00:55:46

the amount of aerosol right I think so in the case of regional uh case the aerosol yeah you know aerosol Optical depth it should not exceed 0.25 so this basically you know comes from the

00:55:59

previous planetary boundary assessment and in the case of global basically we relied on this you know shift between the two hemispheres you know the monsoon could actually shift between the two hemispheres So based on at the boundary

00:56:13

is fixed at basically 0.15 the current state the ah you know the interimmosphere gave away differences point zero five so that's one reason why in the case of aerosol ESB the global

00:56:27

safe boundary is not transgressed um okay next step in the case of you know just ESB so they're just ESB you know in addition to harming people through the you know reduction in hydrological water

00:56:41

cycle um aerosol can also affect the you know air quality and it can affect the human health and right now in fact air pollution causes nearly you know four million people uh per year you know

00:56:53

death and majority of that you know basically the death occurs in low and middle income countries and um so the metric in the case of Health you know this is slightly different uh in the

00:57:06

case of the climate problem or the the safe boundary we use aod which is basically a metric for your assault loading and this PM 2.5 it's also a metric for loading but this basically

00:57:19

indicates you know the amount of particles less with a diameter less than 2.5 Micron that is what is PM 2.5 and in fact in in the case of you know your

00:57:32

quality World Health Organization you know prescribes only less than five micro microgram per meter cube of you know PM

00:57:43

2.5 is healthy but in fact right now uh nearly more than 90 percent of the population is actually exposed to more than this particular uh you know World Health Organization prescribed five

00:57:57

microgram per meter cube so ah for this Earth commission work we basically prescribed a 15 microgram per meter cube because you know there are a lot of intermediate targets that you know who

00:58:09

prescribes so we chose basically 15 microgram per meter cube and even with this nearly 85 percent of the global population is actually living you know with the you know air pollution that is

00:58:22

above this threshold so in fact since PM 2.5 and davod both are uh aerosol loading measures one can actually measure simultaneously and correlate that and one can be converted into other

00:58:37

so when we do that the regional boundary of point you know the regional boundary is a 0.25 but if you convert this uh you know just the boundary of uh 15 microgram per meter cube it can be trans

00:58:50

you know it becomes basically 17 microgram ah so which is sorry 0.17 aod so I think what we found is the just boundary is more you know stricter than

00:59:04

the safe boundary okay here is The quick summary so basically aerosol have you know both the climate safe and health implications and you know large aerosol loading

00:59:18

basically the way it affects us it affects the hydrological cycle whether it is on a planetary scale or on a regional scale its effect is on the hydrological cycle so in the case of regional ah aerosol boundary we

00:59:31

basically you know quantify that to 0.252 0.5 Audi is there you know per limit and so it's already of course uh you know transgressed in South Asia and uh East China for the global boundary

00:59:44

and you know basically this is by looking at the difference between the two hemispheres and in this case the boundary is 0.15 and the current boundary is 0.05 so that is why in this case the global case it is not

00:59:57

transcribers when it when you come to you know Health it is as I already said nearly 85 percent of the you know population is already you know exposed to uh you know levels that are above this threshold so basically the adjust

01:00:10

boundary is stricter than uh the global boundary that's all yeah thank you thank you so much butter and thank you to all of our colleagues who have gone through The esb's View today we will

01:00:27

also have some digests of this information available for you as you leave we have some briefs that go through all of those different areas and then as detailed as comparish but they try to give you an overview of the the headlines of those pieces so before

01:00:40

moving on to our next session uh Dr Magdalena Skipper who's the editor-in-chief of nature is the journal where assistant boundaries for so sorry Earth distance boundaries for a Justified on the same Planet will be published later today and she has this

01:00:54

to say good afternoon it is a great pleasure to be able to contribute virtually to today's events although of course I wish I could have been with you in person to discuss the

01:01:06

analyzes and recommendations from Johann ragstrom and many colleagues which are being published in nature today the stability and resilience of the earth system and human well-being are

01:01:20

inseparably linked yet their interdependencies are generally under recognized and they are often treated independently these are the opening words of the paper

01:01:32

published in nature today the goal of which is to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries the current work Builds on the concept of planetary boundaries which back in

01:01:46

2009 identified safe biophysical boundaries in the nature publication entitled a safe operating space for Humanity this concept of planetary boundaries has

01:02:01

been extraordinarily influential in a relatively short time and yet despite its title a safe operating space for Humanity the workback then did not include the

01:02:14

Justice dimension the new work extends and synthesizes this planetary boundaries framework Donuts economics at the heart of which lies environmental justice and the

01:02:28

sustainable development goals the Justice Dimension is defined in this current work in inter-species intergenerational and intra-generational

01:02:40

terms which enables the authors to propose a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the Global Commons for all people now and into the future

01:02:52

what is striking and sobering is that incorporating the Justice Dimension shows us a much Bleaker picture and arguably the most striking change

01:03:04

since 2009 is that now the authors Advocate limiting global warming to one degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels this of course is lower than the 1.5

01:03:17

degrees Target agreed at the 2015 Paris climate conference what lies ahead is a formidable task of minimizing human exposure to significant

01:03:31

harm from Earth system change what is needed is a just Global transformation if no one is to be left behind there is one more thing about this work

01:03:44

I wish to emphasize in the spirit of true scholarship the authors offer the new Earth system boundaries as in the words a transparent proposal for further debate and

01:03:58

refinement by Scholars and wider Society the analyzes and proposal published today provides a powerful example of how science functions when different teams

01:04:12

study and refine each other's work for nature both the findings presented in today's publication and the way they were arrived at Mata equally

01:04:25

walking a more just and sustainable path will not be easy but it can only be done through inclusive collaboration I hope you will have a productive day of

01:04:39

discussions thank you very much okay and on to our next piece and I will hand over to my colleague Frederick mobile who is the director of Albert Echo a science Communications agency who will take us through the panel thank you

01:04:59

Frederick thank you Maya is everyone okay we were talking about the Bleak future and I was thinking about the ocean here

01:05:11

because it's not the focus of this study but I brought this piece of reef billing Coral as a reminder of what we're talking about I used to be a marine biologist specializing in coral reefs I just

01:05:23

wanted to show this and it's a reminder of what happens if we cross these Earth system boundaries because already at 1.2 we have severe bleaching what this is

01:05:35

apparently a bleached corn because it's dead but this is also what they look like when they suffer from global warming we also know that corals are suffering from nutrient pollution and other Earth's system boundary here and

01:05:48

we also know that if we go past 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming we will lose up to 90 percent of all coral reefs and we also know that 500 million to 1 billion people depend on these coral

01:06:01

reefs for livelihood Health Etc food food portion of these 500 million or 1 million people are poor and marginalized people so this is a reminder of what

01:06:15

we're talking about I will put it here all right so now we're going to have a sort of Reflection from some scientists who are not inside the commission they want to listen to their Reflections on

01:06:32

what they've heard so far and what they see as the gaps for right here it's there's some kind of weird sound here are we okay ah but I can't see without my glasses

01:06:47

okay I'll try this is going to be interesting okay foreign am I fine no no no it works I can put them on when I need to see something so I will call

01:07:04

all these brilliant people who are outside the commission and also experience scientists up one at a time to discuss this and hear some Reflections and the first one that I want to call up on stage is a research

01:07:16

director and deputy director of Stockholm environment Institute she's an experienced social scientist an expert on both climate and sustainable development governance she's an adjunct Associate's professor dusent at lean

01:07:29

shipping University and right now she's in the process of writing the 2023 U.N Global sustainable development report what's a passion please

01:07:40

give her a big round of course [Applause] yes or sir you were involved early on with the planetary boundaries work and now we've seen this new Earth system

01:07:57

boundaries and I just want to hear some initial Reflections and will you give you like two three minutes to reflect on what you heard so far please thank you audio is working yes

01:08:12

thank you so much Friedrich and first of all big congratulations to the group of scientists and the support staff working on this um really path breaking paper I think it's

01:08:25

a significant contribution and we look forward to see how it will be received in the scientific community of course but also policy Civil Society business Etc

01:08:39

um yes I had a privilege of working as a postdoc and with the planetary boundaries one of my first projects working with U1 coordinating that process but also at the same time with joita and EU projects on climate policy

01:08:52

where you really also opened my eyes to equity and Justice so it's very nice to see these come together in such a clear way and reflecting on the science we just heard which is very rich it's very dense

01:09:06

we're gonna need some time to really digest all this um I would say the main the two key contributions that I would also see is exactly what we heard from Magdalena

01:09:17

Skipper the inclusion of Justice and I would really commend the team here for not choosing a simple Road over simplifying this concept you know we are now beyond the

01:09:30

sort of allocation of a carbon budget or talking about ecological debts you know with a single metric it is much more complex so I I appreciate how you have a fairly uh comprehensive framework many

01:09:43

dimension of Justice because as you pointed out I think with the whole Justice turn we see from many parts of the world not just the climate movement I see it a lot among scientific

01:09:56

colleagues it's not just about distributive justice but very much about the recognition Justice who is even at the table when we discuss these things I think a second contribution is the the

01:10:09

sub-global boundaries the focus I think this is a very clear uh Improvement Evolution from the first planetary boundaries paper where I I am still curious to hear more

01:10:24

maybe we'll discuss it in the panel is the interdependencies between the boundaries you allude to it but I think we all need to understand more um you know how are they interdependent

01:10:37

is it the case that the the area of the safe space is constant and then we exceed one boundary and that means we have less space on another one or is is there another sort of conception I think

01:10:50

we need to understand this better I also of course I'm very curious about the need for transformation which uh is discussed in the paper

01:11:02

you talked about you know major redistribution for example uh this you know big important issues and I think we as scientists need to

01:11:14

um ensure and take our responsibility to the public actually funding our research to be even more explicit discussing how can this actually be done in practice what does it mean to demystify a

01:11:28

transformation a little bit so um maybe I'll stop there but there's some initial Reflections thanks also um I know we were both involved in a paper trying to scale down the planetary

01:11:41

boundaries to Swedish context do you remember that one and do you think there's a need now to have sort of those kind of downscaling for a national context or have they already covered

01:11:53

that in their approach I mean I'm also curious I understand that these boundaries I mean there's a whole ecosystem of science-based targets for for uh cities companies Etc so I'm

01:12:05

sure there are lots of ideas uh you're right we tried early on to downscale the boundaries it was very interesting intellectual exercise um to me though I'm not what I took away

01:12:18

from this whole experience was also when starting to compare the boundaries with the policies that we had agreed at the international level it was quite clear that it's not it was a lot about

01:12:29

implementation gaps so actually the International Community has been very good at producing targets in various declarations comments or legal agreements actually one year ago ahead of the

01:12:43

Stockholm plus 50 meeting we had in Stockholm we we reviewed all these targets and I think we have agreed to over 500 in total maybe 250 or so are measurable there are indicators

01:12:56

and the global Community has only managed to make progress significant progress on around 10 percent of these targets so it's very much about an

01:13:08

implementation Gap so in that sense I think boundaries and targets are needed but of course we cannot rely on them to lead to action

01:13:20

so um I would say I think it's it's very exciting if we can downscale boundaries uh if it's and if it's useful for for various organizations

01:13:33

but I'm even more excited about how this will inform the wider debates uh and sort of inform us our politicians when they see the general awareness hopefully increasing even further and and then

01:13:47

take the necessary decisions thanks all right so next panelist is a professor at the University of Gothenburg professor of physical meteorology and he's internationally known for his

01:13:59

extensive climate research and as being a coordinating lead author of the latest ipcc report please big round of applause please stand here okay so I will sort of give

01:14:15

you the same opportunity so I will give you the same opportunity to give some initial reflections of what you've heard about the Earth system boundaries please thanks and of course the first is my

01:14:33

congratulations to all the cultures and all the colleagues especially I think there are actually two groups of people I'm most grateful number one is the international

01:14:45

coordinating bodies and the Futures is one of this and because if you don't have this kind of organization we know that this type of things is of course it will be happening but it's

01:14:59

it's much better to have this International Dimension as well and the second thing I was thinking about is that this is a very nice building up based on the 2009 U.N

01:15:12

rockstone paper and also 2015 with Stefan Etc in terms of a few things that has been mentioned and in my eyes I think the most important impacts of these reports

01:15:26

are too number one is that it will have an impact on the policy committee community and especially at the global scale International scale it's like ipcc you know without IP work

01:15:39

of the ipcc you can not imagine that the Paris agreement will be reached the debate about climate change will happen and you took up much more issues climate is one of this and including much more

01:15:53

important issues I think these are to be seen and to be used at the international discourse deep base and so on and we know that we

01:16:06

already have the biodiversity we already have the land from the U.N discussions and I'm missing actually ocean you know I mean COV is good where do you study with the ocean because I I when I look

01:16:18

at the global issues I'm missing really two things one is water that's why I put my water bottle from ipcc where is water your work is really fantastic because

01:16:34

you you not only create a conceptual framework but also this time you put some numbers that is fantastic I think as the editing chief of leisure said you know it can be discussed can be extended

01:16:49

can be improved but that's science that's also the role the scientific Community should be playing that is also the role for the I think the interdisciplinary bodies like features should be playing

01:17:02

is not openness this event the academies in the world around the world it should be focused on the evidence-based and this is evidence you connected all the evidence we have I'm also happy to see

01:17:16

the global Dimension you guys have been doing it's not just people from stock or maybe from Berlin or Sports time but anyway it's it's fantastic to see also social science is part of it and this is

01:17:30

my first thinking about the impacts the second impact I think I'm have been thinking is really for the Next Generation earth scientists or interdisciplinary scientists

01:17:42

and we probably will discuss more and what I have been thinking that for the young people who are interested in the University this provides exact excellent framework direction of how to think in a

01:17:57

systematic way and how to maybe build up or gain or obtain your knowledge and how to think about our common future I think that will be a

01:18:09

influential for the decades to come and especially immediately for the people in the University I see some young people here not too many but it will be useful for you I guess and I

01:18:23

think I stopped here but I will thank you I guess you're looking around and see a lot of young people we're all young right when it comes to science we always always want to learn new things I have a specific question for you later

01:18:36

on but I think we will take the opportunity to call the next panelists up on stage so she is the chief executive officer of mixtra the Swedish foundation for strategic Environmental

01:18:48

Research she has a PHD in aquatic microbiology at Gothenburg University and you also work for the bowler research Secretariat we're sitting here in this building then no no okay Anna

01:19:00

you're born please then so nice to have you here and sorry I had you sneaking behind me and not properly introducing you there but so it worked well yeah I managed yeah good good

01:19:16

really nice to have you here I will give you the opportunity as well to give some initial reflections of what you've heard so far please actually I will also jump into the ocean how you mentioned the

01:19:28

ocean several of the speaker spoke about it and actually first congratulations to a really impressive piece of work and when I read

01:19:39

the introduction and the information actually I haven't seen the full paper yet my feeling was the same as when I as a marine microbiologist first looked into

01:19:52

the microscope and I was so stunned by all these life in a drop of water so much different organisms all these things

01:20:06

going on and the same feeling I have when looking into the the planetary boundaries issue because it's like a macroscope so you have the same feeling as looking

01:20:19

into this diverse world in the in the ocean when you look at this and it's also sometimes it's really hard to grasp and that was my impression when I got the

01:20:33

information about including Justice also and and safe world that it's so complicated and as a policy maker because I've been on the policy Maker's side sometimes you

01:20:47

just feel a bit um tired and you have really hard the hard time grasping the complexity and that's why it's so good that you scientists do

01:21:00

it for us you actually have the possibility to dig deep you uh connect things you create systems that make it much more easy for us as

01:21:12

policy makers to understand this complexity and I think also as was mentioned before I think the next step is to make it practical operational because we need both the scientific

01:21:25

basis and the system thinking but we also need to go down to practice so I'm looking forward to that step making this idea more operational thanks Anna

01:21:40

did Mr fund This research I'm I'm sorry we didn't not directly not directly directly right indirectly with some of the scientists that's true that's true

01:21:54

but actually man as you mentioned it administra is one of these research funders that look into strategic Environmental Research so this is the type of the research we finance and we have several programs

01:22:07

similar to this kind of work but on National level and there's a bunch of Stockholm resilience Center Associated researchers and that Center wouldn't exist without mystra so yeah that's

01:22:20

right thanks all right I have a specific question for you deleang and this is something how many of you in here have read Ministry for the future by Kim Stanley Robinson the first chapters you

01:22:31

get all sweaty it's for real you feel the pain of being in this heat wave where we reach the wet temperature and nobody can cool down and air conditioning is sort of breaking

01:22:45

together etc etc what is the wet World temperature could you explain it once for a while because it is examination no this is a it's a it's a as you know we have a normal temperature we call it

01:23:00

dry dry temperature which is a energy in atmosphere and then the whip temperature is a temperature that measures how uh your body for example as human can

01:23:13

evaporate you know we buy evaporation we we cool down and so that temperature is a description of how good the evaporation can happen or how easy

01:23:26

when you have a high temperature is very difficult and it's also very directly related to human health you know when there is a temperature a threshold which we you know if we can cannot evaporate

01:23:39

the most sweatering anymore then people can die within days I think Christie is a expert here but from what I have read that the people can die within hours to maximum one day so if you have a sort of

01:23:52

a high moisture in the air and it's really warm we cannot sweat and cool ourselves down and then it's become really problematic thanks now I finally understand it so now I want to sort of call up on stage both Johann and your

01:24:06

ether please come and join us and we'll try to come over here and see if we can fit with these two tables here so thanks again for a great presentation earlier on and I just want to give you

01:24:18

some time to reflect on the reflections on what you've heard who wants to start you want well to begin with perhaps just um diving down into the ocean just to explain

01:24:30

um that we look forward to address the ocean we we took quite a pragmatic approach here recognizing from the very start that you know quantifying safe and

01:24:42

just boundaries is such a complex and major major scientific challenge that we've recognized we would not be able to to address all the nine planetary boundaries so so we selected these five

01:24:54

focusing on the biosphere boundaries climate and air pollution and we have already lined up novel entities for the next phase chemicals and the ocean so we look forward to um

01:25:06

consult you on that as we move along so Professor Chen talked about the fact that um this is the first numbers maybe they can change especially the Justice numbers and as I said also that it's very

01:25:19

um complex justice so I just want to tell you a little bit about the process of how do we come up with Justice numbers so uh in the earth Commission in 2019 when we started there was a whole debate is Justice now science and can we

01:25:33

really come up with scientific numbers and then we have these massive debates amongst the social scientists ourselves can we translate Justice into units like wet bulb temperature you know can we translate them into units that natural

01:25:45

scientists use natural scientists asked us can we really talk about Justice I mean come on aren't you going to weaken our science so you know we had to fight with Justice Scholars and we're to fight with natural scientists and ecologists

01:25:57

and then in that process we all learned we all learned about how the ecosystem can become more just we learned about how um from air pollution actually we moved to the aerosol storyline and we brought

01:26:09

these two things together so it's been a learning process for all of us and we're not sure we've got the right story but we've got to start to the story of Justice because Justice is very complex and especially Justice on oceans is

01:26:22

incredibly complex I think green water is an area where we did not discuss the justice issues and my gut feeling says that maybe there are very complex stories with green water in relation to

01:26:33

justice so it's going to be a long battle ahead trying to figure out how to move this discussion further and when it comes to Justice it's like the Earth commission is publishing different strands of this Justice in

01:26:47

different papers at different times can we take that again because this current paper focus on minimizing significant harm but access to resources is more published in another paper right so in

01:27:04

I published a paper on what would happen if in 2018 in an unequal world we tried to meet the minimum needs of all people who fall below the minimum needs and

01:27:16

then we calculated those first we had to find out what does it mean in terms of access to water how much how many liters of water how many calories of food Etc and then we had to calculate that so calories of food into how much meat how much pulses Etc and then we had to

01:27:29

calculate that back into what does it mean in terms of water energy phosphorus nutrients Etc and then at the end we found out that if you did meet those basic needs in 2018 you would cross the planetary

01:27:42

boundaries uh especially on climate change but also on the others so uh this is for 2018 and so when you project towards the future you find that that will definitely happen and of course technology has a

01:27:54

role but maybe we need to look also at redistribution because technology alone will not solve it so that was another chunk of the work that we did a part of the work that we're now doing which is under review is to try to create a corridor and the corridor is taking the

01:28:07

safe and just boundary as the ceiling and as the floor we are saying what happens if you provide all humans on Earth not just those below with a minimum amount and once we provide the minimum amount to everybody

01:28:20

then what is the space that we have left to allocate amongst ourselves a very complicated story but it is in fact shows us that maybe we don't have such a big Corridor we may have a very narrow

01:28:32

Corridor if we don't change our production systems and our consumption systems and our Investment Systems and so to come back to your transformation story I'm not going to answer it because Professor Diana liver women will do that

01:28:44

but it's not like we are avoiding your question I think it's it's worth just just kind of reiterating that so the Earth commission is is an international Science assessment platform we recognize

01:28:58

that there were many gaps that we needed to fill to be able to do the full synthesis so that's what joita says we developed a theory paper on on Justice we have the paper on the climate niches

01:29:09

that showed the evidence behind putting the thresholds for justice in terms of climate impacts Dave showed the Tipping elements paper which is also an earth commission paper there will be a whole nature portfolio of papers that is the

01:29:22

fundamental uh let's say the new gaps the gaps that have been filled apart from the sentences that are being made that adds up to the Earth commission report today we published a nature paper but to eat also leads a paper that will

01:29:35

be hopefully coming in not too far a future in the landsat so there are kind of there's a whole set of scientific papers here but the vision is that the Earth commission becomes an institution that becomes an international Science

01:29:48

assessment mechanism for a fully integrated people Planet analysis to complement the work of other Global assessment initiatives also as a social scientist and working

01:30:01

with the Stockholm environment Institute network of scientists what do you see what are you up to right now that could contribute to this process I mean I think we need a very broad

01:30:13

Science Spectrum to face the challenges we have so um I think this sort of um again you know identifying the boundaries that are safe and just what

01:30:26

we need to do is essential but it's just as essential to you know figure out what we're going to do in practice so um to move from the targets to the action and what are the barriers Etc

01:30:38

so we we're now preparing for our next five-year strategy and we're really you know thinking hard about should we commit even more to uh sort of making implementation work and I think

01:30:52

um I remember a couple of years ago the U.S posted I think was a major in Mitch's forum and it was just after the EU had been negotiating its climate targets and I just felt you know we're in this

01:31:05

Olympic games of setting targets and it's a little bit risky to invest all you know time political capital in this target setting um I wrote my PhD on policy instruments

01:31:17

and a quote I take with me from from the literature I was looking at is that I mean setting the target is is an easier task done coming up with the policy instruments whether it's carbon taxes

01:31:30

um whether it's investment support to new green industrial policy Etc that's where you have often the distributional conflicts so um I think again we need the full

01:31:43

spectrum we need to constantly update the boundaries and targets I think it's it's the duty of science to do this and speak truth to power but also to focus on implementation I

01:31:56

take it as a challenge actually to to sort of whether it's social science political science governance in a broad sense to also form these sorts of Science assessment processes and really

01:32:09

synthesize you know what what works in practice I think the Earth system science has been has been better actually honestly at this that sort of uh getting uh science together we are

01:32:22

doing a lot of case studies a lot of proliferation but we really need to synthesize the key lessons from an ipcc perspective will they'll sort of add complexity to that process I

01:32:36

mean they were fifth were you 51 authors on this study and you are many many more of course in the ipcc process what do you think how can this sort of Earth system boundaries feed into the ipcc process

01:32:48

well I think uh climate is one of the elements has been discussed here for that part definitively all the literatures will be going into the ipc's assessment and assessment is a keyword here I think

01:33:03

also said correctly that that is also most powerful output from scientific community so I have been working for ipcc for last 20 years or so in different capacities

01:33:15

so what I have seen is that that is really the best way the science can organize ourselves Community get the the voice in a systematic way and also to

01:33:28

help the policy makers to understand we are still not there yet you know with seek report and I hope you will get maybe some shorter brief policy brief because that is a challenge the

01:33:42

communication part but otherwise I think this will be a part of that the background material for ipcc to digest and to read reflect on the use

01:33:53

also and I think it's ipcc as you know that this time has been trying to you know look not look at the climate change itself impacts and mitigation separately

01:34:06

we try to kind of build a system to really close the loop which as I see this group has been doing this already from the beginning that is our system science

01:34:18

thinking and that part I don't know if IPC has been influenced by that kind of thinking or whatever I think this kind of thinking is really necessary to have the police makers in in the beginning or

01:34:30

in a process and to have the impact people and are really looking at what we have been doing is not only the Earth system but also people society and economics Etc

01:34:42

all these are something that ipcc as I think has been evolving has been trying to achieve that also so definitively we can learn from each other ipcs can learn from this process and you can maybe also

01:34:56

look at the rpcc process which is a quite a rigid quite a I was a systematic process there are people who are studying ipcc process by the way so and

01:35:08

as a coordinating leader also we have been interviewed regularly by people and they are studying I guess there are some lessons to be learned and for this this workers thanks it seems also from this

01:35:21

discussion that we need new kind of Science and maybe some new kind of scientists that are transdisciplinary and from your perspective how can you support that as a funder in Sweden I

01:35:33

think scientists have never been as important for society as now so I mean it's a rocky road we are traveling on that's for sure so we need handrails we need Sherpas we

01:35:47

need scientists speaking honestly with integrity and also challenges truths that we I mean we you

01:35:58

come up with new ideas when you we when you collaborate between between natural scientists engineers and social scientists and I think it's so important at this step so I wouldn't say that we

01:36:11

need new types of scientists but a new way of collaborating and working together and this is an example of such a thing that happens across the globe and that's something I really appreciate

01:36:25

and encourage and as a research financer that's that's a focus on what we do we try to create these kind of platforms and and also fill in the gaps be ahead

01:36:37

of the curve identify what is missing in the system and we are foundation so we have quite a lot of freedom as financers but I also encourage other research finances to find ways of collaborate

01:36:51

because sometimes we are creating real problems for you as scientists when you apply for money or Integrity the administrative hinders for collaborating

01:37:03

so we need to do our homework as financers as well and I will bring this back to mystra thanks you won yeah just just one thing just to kind of think a little bit ahead

01:37:16

I inspired so much by your comment here de Liang as well I mean I I see and I think many of us here share that there are very clear scientific trend lines in the world and one is the integration of the biosphere and the climate I mean

01:37:29

that that I think is very clear in the ipcc six assessment is so clear that it won't be enough to just phase out fossil fuels to hold the Paris range we also need to uphold the resilience in the biosphere so it's kind of a earth

01:37:42

commission ipcc interconnection already another trend line is very clear that we have to become stewards of the entire planet there's there's no way of disconnecting that and the third one is of course the full people Planet integration these are three very clear

01:37:55

thrusts which I think will be guiding the whole sustainability and the whole you know beyond agenda 2030 agenda as as we move ahead and then finally just on a

01:38:07

little practical issue just just to hand it back to you DeLeon how inspired we have been by the ipcc I mean as a very practical issue we will be in the second phase on the earth commission launching the Tipping Point model into comparison

01:38:20

project the tip MIP inspired by the ipcc would you have over 20 mips going on the model in the comparison projects already registered at the world climate research program and that will be we hope a real

01:38:33

foundational contribution between ipcc and the Earth commission so we really want to work along exactly this this methodological scientific assessment but really get the social Natural Sciences fully on board together

01:38:46

and we also see some interesting sort of collaborations between ipcc and the IP best panel for biodiversity and even common reports Etc and maybe that is something where there Earth commission can collaborate even

01:38:58

more with both of these and maybe we will have common cops in the future both for biodiversity and climate who knows all right time flies when you're having fun and I just want to give you an

01:39:10

opportunity all of you to give one finals short really short sort of sentence on advice if we were talking about young people here so thinking about the science we need ahead if we

01:39:23

have some young scholars here even students how do you think they can best contribute to the science needed in the coming 20 30 years to help us stay within the third system boundaries who

01:39:34

wants to start really fast you are well I would say to continue advancing the the safe and just space for Humanity simple as that all right I would say that

01:39:50

that shaped approach so they need to make sure that they publish in their own Fields as long as the whole scholarship Arena doesn't change and at the same time they need to try to see if they can publish interdisciplinary work so in their own field as well as

01:40:02

interdisciplinary and hope that both work and it both work then they have a future all right good good good thanks what's up um I think we have not talked so much yet

01:40:15

about you know the the benefits of transitioning staying within the safe spaces it's not all about burden sharing or so on but you know how do we equitably share the benefits of transitioning and in terms of

01:40:28

technological innovation Etc so I hope this also inspired a lot of innovation science if I can say that thanks yeah I took my point

01:40:40

no that's uh I can add one more point that is I think to keep a global Dimension it's so important for young people that we very often think in a

01:40:52

narrow way and I can see the trend very obvious now developing around the world more nationalistic Etc that will not help when we were

01:41:04

going to solve the global issues I had a very good discussion with them about mystery and so on for example focusing on Sweden is good but I think International Dimension is something we should not forget otherwise we will not

01:41:16

be able to solve the problem I really encourage every young person to get involved in this because we need you along on the boat to refer back to the

01:41:29

ocean because we need you and these people here have created really good platforms for you to to work on so welcome thanks and with that we have to close

01:41:43

this para give them all a big hand thanks to [Applause] you and thanks [Applause] hello everybody

01:41:59

thank you I think we are nearly all back in the room Cecilia do we have everyone yes good so we're going to go on to the next section which is going to explore a bit

01:42:12

more about okay now we know more about the boundaries well how do we how do we actually live within them what are the some of the um results and and uh investigations that the as Commissioners just looked at

01:42:24

there I did have an interesting a great point that was um just made to me that I wanted to also just clarify for this group as well that whilst we have a number of researchers on stage today that's not everybody I think you know

01:42:37

the number of 51 different researchers but we've actually also got a lot of post-docs early careers researchers who have been working tirelessly with this group as well over the last few years so I just wanted to see if

01:42:50

allows everybody all of our researchers if you wanted to put your hand up there we go across yeah for a bit of a bit of a round of applause so this is

01:43:06

this is broader than we can we can get fitting into one afternoon but with um no further Ado I'm going to hand over to shumay by who is going to discuss operating operationalizing the airspeeds

01:43:18

for Citizen Business please shumay welcome can you hear me okay great thank you so um what are we gonna do with all these boundaries once this is their set right

01:43:58

what I always say that this esps really need to be linked to actors if they are going to have any bearing in real world and to guide the practice so we can do that by cross-scale

01:44:11

translation try to bring down this you know planetary level kind of our boundaries into actors cities and businesses in particular so when we talk about this cross-scale translation what we are talking about is if the boundary

01:44:24

is transgressed then what we are talking about is how do you allocate the responsibilities equal um equitably and then if it is not transgressed probably you know how you can actually share some of the remaining spaces not that we have

01:44:37

to you know share everything up to the silly but that's roughly um the two different kinds of sharing here so why we have to talk about cities and companies so much because we have so

01:44:48

many other stakeholders and this is because um One is because they are the main generator of the impacts and the second is because of their agency the cities and companies they are really um the

01:45:01

kind of um the kind of actors that we think they can take some of the Nimble actions and very often ahead of even the national government and also before some of the

01:45:14

formal regulatory systems are put in place and this is why um we are focusing on them and I think this is a really important given that the urgency of our situation so translation can serve multiple

01:45:30

purposes basically about you know informing the actors how much you need to do in order for us as a society to stay collectively within the um sort of boundaries and one of the very important

01:45:43

endpoint of this translation is the science-based target setting and we know that this kind of science-based Target setting sort of work because from our analysis of several thousand um

01:45:57

companies we have seen that those companies that do have science-based Target they have the most ambitious Target and then those companies who have Target but not really exactly following the science-based target setting they

01:46:10

have less ambitious ones but both of these companies groups of companies they have much more ambitious Target than their National counterpart so this really shows the importance of mobilizing this sub-national actors

01:46:24

but unfortunately this translation is a very complex process and this is an a nascent sort of area with many knowledge gaps and here are some of the knowledge gaps we identified here for example we

01:46:38

really need to develop a common sort of procedure so that not every actor just do translation as they like and also we do need to focus on interaction we do need to acknowledge some of the Dynamics and we need to allocate for justice and

01:46:52

equity and we also need to support the monitoring and accountability and also establish some of the governance mechanism we cannot always just rely on some of the you know voluntary

01:47:03

activities that some of the front-end cities and businesses are taking up and also we do need to design an incentive system so that more people more cities

01:47:14

and more business will be you know incentivized actually to do this so our work um of working group five within this Earth's Earth commission which I have

01:47:27

been leading um really has been focusing on feeling some of these knowledge gaps and one of the first steps we have um tried to do is to come up with our

01:47:40

principles for this translation so we have come up with 10 principles of translation six of them are really about the translation process and probably four of them are more focusing on the

01:47:52

translated sort of outcome so I wouldn't have time to go into detail but these principles include for example scientifically rigors and they need really need to be

01:48:06

transparent they need to be just and they need to address systematic issues and they need to be sufficiently safe what do we mean by sufficiently safe here is that I think some previous

01:48:18

presenters talked about you know the implementation Gap so here's sufficiently safe we mean even if for example assuming 20 or even 30 percent of those people who have set Target actually they are going to fail they

01:48:32

wouldn't be able to achieve the target so we probably need to incorporate this sort of you know safety sort of boundary into the target setting from the very beginning so this is what I mean I'm sufficiently safe here and of course

01:48:45

they need to be context specific sensitive and they probably need to be more enabling and incentivizing rather than punishing and you know having yeah and also they need to be dynamic and

01:48:57

time-bound we need to revisit them as as the social um situations change and also they need to be as much as possible um synergistic synergetic so we have identified that translating

01:49:11

Earth system boundaries involves several key steps for example first of all we need we have this safe and just a system boundaries they're mostly about the Earth System state so we really need to

01:49:24

transcribe this into um anthropogenic pressure so that we can actually allocate this sort of pressure into the shares so again this paper is

01:49:35

um still under revision which will be published by hopefully by landsat planetary health so once we have this transcribed boundary then we can have this choice of

01:49:47

um sharing approaches and then we have this initial allocation of budget or responsibilities but very often this initial steps of allocation wouldn't be sufficient to really reflect the context

01:50:01

or the Justice um principles so we probably need several reiterative adjustment before we can actually arrive at the final translated share of budget and responsibilities

01:50:14

and once this kind of final share of budget and responsibilities are identified then actors can use them to to do various things for example like you know for the purpose of reporting for

01:50:27

the purpose of benchmarking for their risk management and also very importantly science-based Target setting so here we can see that the choice of this sharing approaches is one of the

01:50:44

most important steps in cross-scale Translation and it is also that the one step that actually um carries explicit or very often implicit value judgment which directly

01:50:57

influence the the outcome whether the outcome of translation is actually fair or just and could also be open for um you know influence or even manipulation by different actors so we

01:51:09

think it is very important we have we get this really right so we started by conducting literature review on this cesarean sharing approaches and we found about 40 different studies and this

01:51:20

figure put these 40 studies across different different specific Earth system domain and then across different sharing principles so you can immediately Identify some obvious

01:51:33

patterns here we can see um Legacy or grandfathering in other terminology is very often used and also the basic need preference or equality or economic contributions are the most used

01:51:47

sharing approaches whereas more forward-looking ones for example the capability or a resource efficiency or green incentive or development right are not as often used in this existing

01:52:02

sharing studies so another one that is very obvious from this pattern is that most of these studies are about a stop stopping at the

01:52:13

country level and very very few of them of them are about cities or businesses so this really points to the need to develop this methodologies did I sorry

01:52:33

I'm having thank you I'm trying to go back but it's not going back is it oh sorry okay this is going back great

01:52:50

so as as our first sort of attempt to really develop a protocol of cross-scale translation um I think we we have identified several sort of key steps in in doing that

01:53:03

decision point in doing that and our review and Analysis really revealed that the choice of sharing approach as we just talked about is so important and there are several different factors actually influence the suitability of

01:53:17

different sharing approaches and those include what kind of a system domain we're talking about um what kind of spatial construct that particular boundary has adopted to to come up with a boundary and what is a

01:53:31

status is it transgressed or not transgressed and what is the regenerative sort of nature is this recharged every year or is it taking like forever or even impossible to

01:53:42

recover and what is the temporal perspective do you want to go back and then try to understand who's the most responsible one that has caused the problem or do you want to focus on current or even forward-looking say you

01:53:55

know for example like the development right or you know Green incentives those sort of things so once going through this sort of steps you have a pool of sharing appropriate sharing approaches and this will be put

01:54:09

into the consideration of Justice equity and the social economic context and then we'll arrive at the final choice of sharing approaches and this will also be constrained and informed by the

01:54:21

availability of data and and Matrix and then after all this is done we can have this allocated share so the one thing that we have really learned through this kind of exercise

01:54:37

is that the complexity and the vital Importance of Being transparent so um and that includes um you know uncertainties of the result

01:54:50

uh what is the value judgment that goes under or you know beneath that particular choice and what kind of context we've been talking about and what kind of Justice considerations we have considered in in doing so and so

01:55:04

for example we know that all sharing approaches and the choice of domain translation they do carry the value judgment and uncertainties but this is very often not spelled out in in those

01:55:16

studies we have reviewed and no single translation approach can really address all of these uncertainties or the nuances context or Equity or Justice which is why some of the reiterative

01:55:28

adjustment probably will be needed for translation and there is also a need to establish a common you know principles and further the protocols for transparency and credibility

01:55:41

and of course governance structure is really essential we need to put in the regulation regulatory systems incentives accountability and benchmarking and all those these things needs to be further

01:55:54

developed and of course this really points to the broader systematic transformation because no City or cities or businesses they can do this alone they are you know

01:56:05

always embedded in the much broader social economic and ecological systems of governance you know of governance and many other systems so this is really calling for a system-wide sort of

01:56:18

transformation so I would really like to highlight one particular sort of unexpected kind of Discovery through our process is um the importance of not only setting

01:56:32

Target by individual actors but also getting them to collaborate together so what do we have um focused on here is we looked at the 200 most emitting the

01:56:45

largest emitter cities in the world and then we looked at the 500 companies that are the largest emitter and what I found is that many of them actually co-locate and this is very interesting because

01:56:56

many of the Cities I think about more than half of these 200 largest limited cities they do have this Net Zero Target but many of these Global 500 largest emitter companies that are located in

01:57:10

the city with with their headquarter they don't have any Net Zero you know sort of Target and this is something very important that we know that we have to notice because these headquarters they themselves they don't have any you

01:57:24

know much emission but they have the power to make the decision that can influence a whole lot of you know business ecosystem and then change the practice of them but this has never really

01:57:36

um been focused on or or tapped into so what we are trying to advocate here is that actually before that to identify or quantify the potential of what if these

01:57:48

cities can persuade the companies that are you know having the headquarters in their City to actually bring the ambition abreast with each other what is the potential and we found there is a

01:58:00

quite large potential if we can do that and this work is under still under revision um with nature sustainability but this is really um I'm showing this to you to really trying to say it is very very important that in

01:58:13

setting Target even it is very important to um collaborate with with each other not rather than just you know setting Target for yourself so I think I will stop there thank you [Applause]

01:58:46

okay great well good afternoon um I do want to um acknowledge that most of the work I did as an earth commissioner

01:59:00

um was on the unseated land of Native Americans in the southwestern United States and Indigenous rights and vulnerabilities feature quite largely in

01:59:14

the way we think about Justice for the Earth Commission two things uh one is the work we're doing on transformation and also to talk a little bit more about

01:59:31

the work we've done on the importance of access of the poor to well-being the needs for well-being and the access work has been published Rama to El Al the

01:59:45

work on transformation is been done over the last year and those of you who have published in journals know that it takes months if not years

01:59:57

of working on a paper to get it published and in the time that we've been thinking about transformation there's been a veritable tsunami of

02:00:08

scientific articles published and I feel as though we're constantly needing to update our thinking because they're such wonderful work being published and a lot of the work of the earth commission is

02:00:22

based on the work of hundreds of other scientists whose work that we're trying to synthesize so two questions what changes do we need to stay within or

02:00:34

return to a corridor and what I'm going to talk about are the Deep systemic changes and then what are the implications of meeting the needs of the poorest in terms of

02:00:47

Precious on the earth system and also in terms of transformation and I do want to remind us all that talking about Justice and protecting the

02:01:02

Earth's system it's something that has been internationally agreed upon within the sustainable development goals so we're not coming up with in a sense something

02:01:13

that the International System hasn't talked about what we're trying to do is to provide some scientific basis for actually moving ahead on the sdgs so a

02:01:26

whole bunch of the sdgs are about eradicating poverty and providing access to resources for well-being that underpins our approach to just access but they also seek to protect the

02:01:38

Earth's system and this of course reflects the Earth commission approach to Earth system stability and safety and in the 2030 agenda that the

02:01:50

countries agreed to there are many mentions of the need for transformation but not very many specifics about how that would happen so briefly the work we've done on access

02:02:03

there are about 700 million people who currently live in terrible conditions they don't have good health they don't have access to clean water they don't

02:02:15

live with basic dignity and it's very hard for them to escape from poverty so the question we asked is what would be the Earth system impacts if we prioritize them first if we gave them

02:02:30

access to the energy food water and infrastructure that they need and then if that makes further pressures on the Earth's system how can we actually meet their needs without

02:02:42

putting added pressure on the earth system so joita actually went through this very rapidly and the answer to a question we looked at four basic aspects

02:02:54

of well-being food water energy and infrastructure looking at housing and Mobility we looked at income distribution as a proxy to estimate how many people lacked

02:03:06

access to those basic needs we then reviewed the literature particularly un standards to come up with estimates of what is needed for decent living and

02:03:19

then what is needed at a second level to escape from poverty we then converted those resource needs into pressures on the Earth's system and we've looked at estimates for 2018 which has already

02:03:32

been published and 2050 which is a publication now under review where we assumed a population of 9 million people and this is the graph from the article

02:03:45

we've already published led by creless ramalt knows is that for uh and we only looked at the subset of the uh system boundaries but for nitrogen and

02:03:57

phosphorus for land which we used as a proxy for the biosphere and for water giving all of those people are dignified life only increases the pressure on our

02:04:10

systems boundaries modestly although that's a problem since all of those boundaries have already been exceeded so it makes the challenge harder but for climate change bringing all those people

02:04:22

out of poverty into some minimum level of well-being could have quite serious implications for increased greenhouse gas emissions so we've then been looking uh we briefly

02:04:37

discussed this in the published paper but we have a lot more that will be coming out on that is we did what you could think of as thought experiments which were based on these access

02:04:48

estimates and so the first thing we look at is what would happen if we increase the consumption of the poor to a minimum level and bring the consumption of the rich or the high consumers down to that

02:05:03

it's not the minimum level it's the access to the the escape from poverty another thought experiment would be to say rather than bring everybody down to

02:05:15

this quite low level of consumption what would happen if you took like the highest three income deciles and bought them down just to the one below which wouldn't be quite as dramatic reallocation

02:05:27

and in fact to both of those I think that we will be showing that by reducing consumption and reallocating it that allows access for the poor and it means

02:05:40

we can pull back from uh transgressing Earth system boundaries how we do that I'll talk a little bit about in a minute the other thing that we were asked to do by some reviewers of an article that's

02:05:54

in review was not just to look at population change by 2050 but perhaps also do a thought experiment around technology change so we have now done an estimate that assumes technology

02:06:08

improvements towards lower environmental impact like lower carbon Technologies and if that happens then there's less pressure on Earth system boundaries even

02:06:20

without reallocation and some people who we've talked to have said well this is very revolutionary and it's not going to be acceptable so we

02:06:33

have been thinking about how there are lots of existing strategies for reducing and recallocating consumption and I've just listed some of them here that are common across the world at different

02:06:45

levels taxation graduated pricing I live in a city where if you increase your water use above a basic level you get a much higher water bill and that has successfully reduced per capita

02:06:58

consumption Tucson Arizona there's voluntary reductions in consumption that are already widespread information labels Recycling and reuse moves to plant-based diets Public Service

02:07:11

profession and subsidies to the poor help bring people out of poverty especially if those subsidies are for low environmental impact escapes from poverty there are more contentious legal

02:07:25

strategies where you can reallocate consumption through lawsuits through addressing rights through giving people reparations land reform in terms of the use of land

02:07:38

regulations that actually impose consumption caps and then of course investment in technologies that allow for low carbon and nature positive consumption not all consumption is bad

02:07:51

some consumption has much higher environmental impacts than others everything from access to our thinking about transformation we apply our Justice lens or our Justice

02:08:07

framework to thinking about the systemic Transformations that we may need in order to retreat from boundaries or reallocate access and those have got to

02:08:20

be just both in the means by which we achieve a safe and just future and the ends and so the principles are allowing access for the poor as part of transformation

02:08:34

reducing pressures on Earth system boundaries which would in turn reduce the harm that we talked about earlier this afternoon we need to make sure that the responses

02:08:46

are just including the setting of targets and I'll just give some ideas about how we're thinking about that for systemic transformation we need to look at the Deep drivers of Earth system

02:08:59

change and inequality whether that's governance whether that's consumption whether that's values and the whole goal here is to provide and identify a safe and just Corridor to

02:09:13

the Future we're looking at four key areas of transformation which are drawn from this literature that is changing almost every week

02:09:28

and we do assume that Transformations are systemic deep and focused on the fundamental drivers of Earth system change and inequality and we contrast those to Transitions which are often

02:09:42

sexual and focus more on immediate drivers so some of the examples that Chris gave about water we might think of as transitions rather than getting at those deeper drivers of uh consumption

02:09:56

of water oops sorry uh going back yeah so the four Transformations we're looking at are consumption which is somewhat focused on per capita consumption but you could also think of

02:10:09

it as the consumption of a city or the consumption of a corporation and there we're looking at reductions and reallocation it involves changing behaviors and changing values and we

02:10:24

contrast that to changing fundamental economic systems where some of the degrowth literature for examples looks at focusing our economic systems on what

02:10:38

we need to use rather than non-profit and accumulation and investment using alternative indicators of economic success trying to control unjust and

02:10:51

unsafe accumulation and investment like land grabs or mining for example technology is obviously an important area for transformation

02:11:03

it needs to be sustainable with low environmental impact but it also needs to be accessible to promote access and then finally a very overarching issue is the question of governance how do we

02:11:16

create governance at all levels from the international to the local that will transform consumption economies and Technologies and that will ensure Fair allocation both of access of

02:11:30

responsibilities and of Rights and then just briefly we also need to look at how those Transformations can be just in themselves how the setting of

02:11:43

targets can be just and there's a growing research literature that talks about the potential trade-offs and injustices Associated and I've just given a few examples of Transitions and

02:11:58

Transformations that have been proposed so how do we deal with job losses in carbon intensive sectors how do we make sure that carbon offsetting is legitimate and just

02:12:10

because there's a literature and a media coverage emerging showing that a lot of the Net Zero commitments are implicitly relying on carbon offsets which are not

02:12:22

being implemented in a just or legitimate way the debate about half Earth conservation some of the debates that came out of the meeting in Montreal about how to ensure

02:12:35

that protecting land is just does not encroach on the rights of indigenous people or on food supply bioenergy is another solution or a trans a transition option that if we're going

02:12:49

to use land for fuel May undermine food security mining of rare earth minerals has been linked to the growth of Renewables which is an important transition but can have environmental

02:13:03

impacts and then even as we look at adapting for example to climate change there's a growing literature on if you don't design your adaptation projects they can create new injustices so this

02:13:16

is probably work that we'll be looking at going forward but it's very important to think about as we set the targets and as we look at transformation and I'll just end with a list of some of the

02:13:29

relevant papers many of which are already available some of which we hope to release release in the next few months thank you

02:13:42

thank you thank you Diana thank you and David please welcome David to Boris here thank you

02:13:56

okay thank you very much and it's a pleasure to be uh with you here this afternoon um so what I'll talk about is one of the applications of our work which Dana just mentioned and this was at the the cop

02:14:08

the biodiversity cop in Montreal last December which I'm sure many of you are involved in as well and this was a chance for us to um demonstrate or explore the um the implications of the work that we

02:14:22

have been developing and it's about can we have a nature and people positive future now you've seen parts of this slide already Peter presented the work from our biosphere working group

02:14:34

and what I'm particularly excited about in the work that we're doing so I'm a coral reef scientist so I appreciated Frederick's coral on the table there but the degree of use that we have in Corey fairy is in in poor tropical locations

02:14:47

is very high in the dependence of people on these ecosystems is immense as is their value for biodiversity of course in their productivity and how do we balance that out many things we need to

02:14:59

do for coral reefs we need to do in broader systems and in an African context while of course you know the the ocean responses are very important in in bringing the oceans the solutions we need on land are much more immediate in

02:15:12

Africa than than we need in the ocean and so Landscapes like that one at the top you know are completely degraded this is my ride to the airport whenever I come out to meetings like this is through this landscape where the soils are just completely depleted and I think

02:15:26

this work on on functional integrity and how to try and keep a balance or high enough function in Landscapes and seascapes is I think of the of the greatest importance and this is work that Sarah was in the back has done and

02:15:40

pulled together and we're waiting for the full publication but some of these results are of course in the nature one about to come out Peter already showed this map showing the distribution of functional Integrity

02:15:52

across terrestrial spaces the white that you see there the deserts and the and the far north and the tundra those are intact Landscapes so they're they're not classified in this map this shows lands that go from dark

02:16:06

purple high integrity down to yellow and and green at the low Integrity areas I'll show a highlight from East Africa because this is where I live and what this map really shows in Kenya

02:16:17

is that most of our Landscapes are we don't have much intact uh sort of nature left in a country like Kenya now a lot of the country is dry there's pastoralism the the more fertile areas

02:16:31

are highly farmed but most the country does still have high integrity and that's important and that's a great potential for Solutions rather than thinking about the negative parts of the story

02:16:43

and what's important here coming from the conservation Community is how do we how do we maintain this high integrity how do we conserve biodiversity across lands and seascapes

02:16:56

not just thinking about you know those intact spaces and the protected areas where nature is still intact and and people's impact is very low but how do we really work on on the places where

02:17:08

people live how do we make nature count in people's everyday lives so that they value it and they take actions to to maintain it and restore it so this graph this is a paper very much

02:17:20

um well 2021 we're in the process of our Earth commission work but I prepared this paper with a group of African scientists really trying to contribute to this discourse and leaders of of ngos and things like that trying to make an

02:17:34

argument for shared spaces conservation so this graph shows say the proportion of a national territory that is intact on the left up to degraded on the right it's a different scale from the one we use in the Integrity map because it came

02:17:47

out before we had that but in Kenya for example we had eight percent of our land under protected areas that red bar over there and in Target 3 in the new Global biodiversity framework we're supposed to

02:18:00

go up to 30 percent of protection it's a global Target different countries will will go for different levels but how do you ramp up the ambition in countries like Kenya to have more protection uh so

02:18:12

in this model those dark green bars are what you would go up to 17 that was a Target in 2020 but then to go from 17 up to 30 percent we tried to imagine how you would do that across all spaces so

02:18:25

not just focusing in the high highly intact biodiversity areas on the left in this graph but spreading conservation actions across all territories and this is something that this functional Integrity result that we had where you

02:18:38

in this in this case there was literature out beforehand that suggested 20 landscape in under natural vegetation is good with we have identified 25 as being a better number but how do you motivate

02:18:51

conservation in those areas so to ramp up investments in conservation in Kenya of course we can still ramp up more

02:19:03

protected areas better protection better management across the the less populated more highly functional places that are more remote this could be in protected areas but there's not much appetite in a country like Kenya for government

02:19:16

control of space anymore there's a lot of appetite for Community conservation areas under these other effects of conservation measures that the CBD process is now promoting so there's certainly potential for that

02:19:28

but really what we need to focus on is across Landscapes where people are living at increasing population densities what will it mean for them to have better protection uh to have more

02:19:42

restoration or vegetation and natural habitats in their spaces and this is where I think really the rubber will hit the road on really getting to implementation in the new biodiversity framework is making sure that

02:19:54

conservation really works for people and you could get up to this total of 30 percent by spreading effort across all Landscapes of course at the higher end there it won't be fully intact you won't have as much biodiversity benefits but

02:20:08

that can return over time with restoration you do it right of course you can increase the value for conservation over time and thinking about climate change of course which we have to do together you have to think about what will the climate be in 30

02:20:21

years or 50 years in order to have high function vegetation across Landscapes at that point in time not about what it was in the past so this is a way that we think the work that we've done can really contribute to really ramping up

02:20:34

investment in conservation and commitments not just from National governments but coming down to local governments because of course this has to happen at local levels if we want to have this 20 to 25 percent semi-natural

02:20:46

vegetation per square kilometer across Landscapes of course that's what landowners have to invest in so how do we make nature positive this ambition for improved conservation people positive now this is a graph on

02:20:59

um sort of a motivating commitments to this target three building up to the the convention we put out this paper now from our working group in the earth commission with collaborators really showing that to get from Gray business

02:21:12

as usual to the yellow which is conservation actions we need a lot more than just biodiversity conservation which is the yellow one you need actions on drivers of Decline and there were three areas that we felt there were

02:21:24

deficiencies so the first really to take responsibility for direct and indirect drivers we need a lot more honesty and realism about the inertia and responsibility of biodiversity to recovery it takes many decades for that

02:21:38

recovery to happen and the Ecuador outcomes are really emphasized by our work in the earth commission and this inter and inter-generational Justice is a key platform in that paper we put out these six actions where the ones on the left

02:21:51

really address the biodiversity actions and reducing drivers the ones on the right are the three areas of equity that we really need uh investment in in moving forward and then now that we finally have our results coming out with

02:22:04

a nature paper coming out in just a short amount of time finally we really would like to now move from trying to influence the discourse in the negotiations of a convention to and the

02:22:16

framework to how do you move forward in implementation I think 2A is a really important one is that I mean we have this results where we say that 50 of land spaces is natural or intact

02:22:27

recognizably so there will be some impacts of course that's a lot more than the 30 percent that is that is wanted under protection so how do we really validate work on that 50 it's not just about 30 protection which is a legal thing but

02:22:40

about keeping systems intact and then there's 25 percent of healthy per square kilometer across all remaining spaces in countries and of course the work we want to do in phase two is on the ocean what are the numbers

02:22:54

uh that make sense for oceans the coastal zones in particular but then also the open ocean so thank you thank you thank you David thank you so if I'm

02:23:07

edging closer to everybody to try and make sure that all speakers that we can get through through everything today so first of all I'm going to we're going to move into the next panel set of Reflections shortly but first I want to

02:23:19

invite Jane Madrick to the floor Jane is the um the chief executive of the global Commerce Alliance and has just joined in May this year she has the let me just push this forward so

02:23:34

the Earth commission is the scientific Cornerstone of this Alliance so it's fantastic to have you here with us today Jane thank you thank you Maya and I'm delighted to be here and I've asked to been asked to be

02:23:47

short even shorter than the five minutes so I'll try my best first of all huge congratulations to all those involved in bringing this science together three years but I bet it's a lot of people

02:23:58

years and overwork to make that happen um it's fascinating in terms of the science it is also grown breaking and perhaps ground shaking I hope so

02:24:12

and how do I look at this or how does the Global Commons Alliance look at this I would say not with despair but that this actually gives hope because it sets out the Contours the the safe and just

02:24:26

Zone measurable Pathways that can be translated to Trigger action so this is it really fills my heart with joy as well as really tantalizes my mind so

02:24:40

that the Global Commons Alliance of course has come about because not enough has been happening you know the governmental processes have not been effective enough or fast enough to

02:24:52

really tackle the problems so this is an alliance of a different nature of non-state actors who are really coming together not to form a new organization but to work together in new and

02:25:06

innovative ways so that people can better share and Stuart Steward the global Commons so in a sense Global Commons Alliance can be seen as an

02:25:18

engine for this inclusive collaboration that's been talked about this morning this afternoon so we're about changing Minds changing actions and changing systems and in terms of this Earth Systems Science this

02:25:32

is a Cornerstone of the work of the alliance it's the underpinning science and our job now is to help translate this science into actionable measures

02:25:44

and Pathways to make it operational so it's a big challenge um what I could say from my own perspective what from what I've heard this morning

02:25:56

might be some of the implications of this and uh well I didn't see it until this morning so forgive me this is not complete just a few thoughts so I know from my 30-something years of

02:26:10

working at the intersect of water nature land climate and humanitarian work that there's no environmental security without social justice

02:26:24

it's not possible all those approaches to keep people out have failed but I would also say there's no social justice really without bringing the environment and the natural

02:26:36

processes back into better condition these are interdependent so I'm delighted that we have a framework which is both environmentally safe and socially just

02:26:48

joined up but I do feel we've got a long way to go to translate that into real action what I think it means is about a fair distribution of Rights and opportunities

02:27:01

including those who are the poorest and most affected most vulnerable By changes to the Earth Systems and I want to emphasize that we don't see these people

02:27:13

as the victims of the change I rather see them as the potential change agents for a better a safer a more just Planet it's my experience there's exactly these

02:27:26

people who are living on the margins of society who have the closest dependency on nature the best understanding of nature actually and the natural systems and who with just a little encouragement

02:27:40

and access to knowledge resources and tools and decision making can be change agents for their landscape and Beyond so the implication of the safe and just

02:27:54

framework I think is that we really need some new collaborations and that's including within the Global Commons Alliance we need humanitarian development Health Partners to help us

02:28:07

think along how to translate this into practice and I would say also the nature conservation organizations need to come out of their bunker as well you know nature positive is fantastic

02:28:19

but it needs to be nature and people positive and for that there needs to be learning a real collaboration with these other sectors and that doesn't just mean at the even just at the targets level

02:28:33

but in all the operational Frameworks methodologies there needs to be adjustment there is movement in this way but a long way to go second Point uh that that really

02:28:46

struck me is the interdependency of these Earth Systems when we come to think about action to address those and

02:28:58

so I think the the next publication will be just as important as this one because I know that's really going to highlight the key ones we need connected pathways to really succeed to to bring the Earth

02:29:12

back into a safe and just condition so I could just focus perhaps on on the water aspect because that's something uh I've worked a lot on

02:29:25

currently water is seen and talked about and managed as some kind of commodity and I think what this science means is we need to really see it more as water systems and these Water Systems include

02:29:38

the ecosystems which are capturing storing regulating and distributing that water to people so the hundreds of millions of dollars that are invested in

02:29:50

trying to bring access to all might just fall over if some of that money doesn't go back into restoring the watersheds which are ensuring that that water Will Survive into the future we

02:30:02

need to tackle water alongside land reversing land degradation so that it can better bring the water in and we need the Wetland systems back in better condition Sweden's lost 80 percent of

02:30:16

its Wetlands I heard this morning that's about the global average and these are the connectors between the terrestrial and water environments and the ocean you heard from Professor Gordon this is

02:30:29

happening in the next phase I'll hold you to that um so we need to bring these together in the translation so that action can be effective what you also notice from the science

02:30:43

we've we've seen is how agriculture really is underpinning a lot of the movement in the wrong direction so our systems change lab tells me that it's around 70 Transformations needed

02:30:56

but I would say that transforming the Food Systems and our approach to that and what it means globally and locally has got to be pretty high on the list because that this is

02:31:10

um really holding up going to hold up progress on the nutrients the water and the biosphere otherwise so agriculture can be a force for good but again we need new Partnerships new thinking

02:31:23

challenge the old approaches to turn this around and that's really quite a task because the lobby groups are are very strong to keep business as usual

02:31:37

and in that sense reflecting on the global biodiversity framework you know most of the focus is on the 30 by 30 the protect and restore nature but I think what the this Earth system

02:31:50

science is saying is that we need perhaps to give more attention or at least as much attention to that 70 percent and that nature doesn't just belong in protected areas we need nature across

02:32:03

the landscape so we need some different thinking here we certainly need huge attention on the role that companies can play to to turn this around and there is an enthusiasm there and we

02:32:17

need a big push on landscape regeneration how to bring managed and intact nature together in Landscapes that can also be the engines of a

02:32:30

thriving economy what what are the design principles how do we bring the stakeholders together and make this real and upscale so these are just some of my uh Reflections what I hope for now is that

02:32:44

there will be some immediate impact from this science I hope that it's a wake-up call that it it will encourage Civil Society to put even more pressure on the politicians to take the right decisions

02:32:57

and those who are hesitating at the moment like in the EU over the nature restoration law might just push them to do the right thing or in the Netherlands

02:33:10

do I say it's to tackle the massive nitrogen emission problem which which is stalled so to push for the right decisions seeing the bigger picture to Galvanize new thinking and new

02:33:23

Partnerships as I've mentioned and ultimately to reorientate the economic and financial systems so that they really motivate and incentivize

02:33:35

the addressing these Earth system boundaries so the Global Commons Alliance is extremely proud of this publication everything behind it

02:33:50

and everything it stands for and we're really looking forward to to work with the big team who've put this together and our wider partnership to help translate it into action thank you very

02:34:02

much foreign thanks Jane for reminding us that we need to be both people and Planet positive and also talking about how we can turn this

02:34:21

science into some real impact and that's actually what will happen in the next panel that I will introduce to you briefly so I was looking in my archives the other day and I found almost 20 year

02:34:34

old people from it's called Metro it was a daily sort of a newspaper that was handed out for free in Stockholm and other cities in Sweden and what I found there was a interview with can I get

02:34:48

that slide please if you have it next slide this was what I found in this paper it's an interview that me and Dana Gordon who is now the director of Stockholm resilience Center did with will Stefan

02:35:02

it was quite sad because he couldn't do the leaking around and skating on the Lakes because they were not frozen any longer when he was living in Sweden and what struck me this is both to pay a tribute of course to will Stefan but

02:35:15

also that we knew so many of these things already 20 years ago and if we look at all these sort of great acceleration curves even though we see so many good initiatives and so many

02:35:28

good signs of real change real action still on the global level these curves are going in the wrong direction so what will it take for us to not sit here in 20 years again and see the same patterns

02:35:42

how can we turn this around this is what I want to discuss for the next panel here so I will call them up one by one and now I have my glasses so I hope we can see all right so the first one has a really

02:35:59

interesting job he's the head of Delegation to UNF Triple C at the Swedish Ministry of climate and Enterprise he's the Sweden's Chief negotiator during the cup meetings

02:36:11

please Matthias firmary come up on stage and give him a big hand see you here that's good that's good that's good enough some place for you here among my papers all right are you

02:36:27

already working with cop28 yes yes of course it may happen in November December right yes in Dubai yeah so a lot of science here please I give you some opportunity to reflect a few

02:36:40

minutes on what you've heard so far thanks so much and first of all thanks for allowing me this opportunity for to listen I mean I think it's I mean someone said it's sobering and indeed it is sobering all these signs which you've

02:36:53

been putting together and yet again a call for us sort of more on the policy side to be working even harder to to make sure that we meet those kind of targets which which we've all set and are also being more sort of evident as

02:37:06

we move along and I think uh six brief points from my side I mean the first one would be the sobering one the secondly on the targets I mean I think it's just to give you an idea of where we are in within the negotiations um when we try to bring forward these

02:37:19

kind of new could be perceived at Target or sort of breaking down targets that we've already set there is quite a strong opposition to that from let me say developing countries at large I mean not pointing

02:37:32

to specific countries and maybe some developed countries as well saying that we set our Targets in the Paris agreement and there's no need for further targets so just to sort of to give you an idea of the potential difficulties of actually agreeing new

02:37:43

targets uh to to at least within within the climate sphere um third my third point would be I think that uh or colleague did is presenting on on the water issue it sort of had

02:37:55

this slide on supply and demand uh transformation I think that's a really good example of sort of how we can provide concrete measures which might not be perceived as targets but at least sort of providing input to the work that

02:38:09

we're doing um and I mean we we're working on water when it comes to climate adaptation of course but I think the same kind of approach could be taken when it comes to the energy transition for example you know what kind of supply and demand

02:38:21

measures would need to be take put in place to uh to accelerate the the energy transition my fourth Point um you know maybe is taking the obvious but I think much so what you have

02:38:34

presented um provides us also with input in terms of how we strengthen the interlinkages between Health climate biodiversity and so forth I mean I personally I believe that we're

02:38:47

not good enough at that I mean it's easy sort of to say at an overarching level that we need to have an integrated approach but when it comes to the policy design it's much more difficult so I think here again the kind of examples that we can get from the from you know

02:39:00

from science from other practitioners even better for us both are sort of at the global level but even maybe more importantly at the national level on how countries can actually integrate these kind of perspectives in their in their own policy making and uh to into

02:39:13

legislation fifth Point um again I think many of you probably are already engaged in these kind of circumstances but as you know we have within the UNF Triple C we have this constituency systems of uh of non-state

02:39:27

actors contributing to the process and when it comes to research this is sort of grouped together in the Ringo constituency I'm not sure to what extent you've heard about this but there is one at least or acronyms more acronyms so

02:39:42

the Ringo is I mean it's research and then International governmental organization something in that I'm not actually quite sure but Ringo so that sort of just sort of the Highlight that there is a formal

02:39:56

input procedure in at into the UNF Triple C where this kind of research could be useful and we we have a number of ongoing processes where I think that the kind of research which you've come up with sort of could could be fed into

02:40:09

that all mitigation on adaptation on just transition I mean we have now for cop28 for example we have the global stock take which is a key element of the fires agreement every five years we do a stock take on where we are and more

02:40:22

importantly on where we're going so I think sort of feeding into that process and my final point just briefly is on the just element I think that's um something which of course we've been hearing for a number of years on sort of

02:40:34

I mean and they're different words to this is just transition there's Equity there's carbon budget I guess in a way you could say as well so here again I think what I've heard at least been the the kind of examples that you've been

02:40:46

providing gives us more con more sort of concrete examples on how to implement that kind of just transition which so many of us are talking about and so those again you know it provides also an input to us in terms of how we can be

02:40:59

taking our work forward so thanks so much thank you Applause I mean we're talking now about sort of all the interlinkages between these different issues and of course I mean

02:41:12

the biodiversity cops how much do you collaborate with the negotiators for the biodiversity cops in in your work it's increasing I mean it's it could be more but it's at least I mean just to give

02:41:24

one brief example we have a uh one we're doing one submission into the biodiversity cop on the linkages between biodiversity and climate so that's uh very I mean that's and that's ongoing now so sort of trying to bring those two

02:41:38

tracks together okay thanks we have a huge panel coming up so I will have to move forward so the next panelist is working hard to make Copenhagen carbon neutral already 2025. he's the chief

02:41:51

advice from climate and economy for the city of Copenhagen and he's on the steering committee of the global green growth Forum please Martin hey big round of applause

02:42:02

[Applause] so oh thanks it's the issue with will Stefan we would like to treat it kindly mozam please an international reflection you've heard a lot about the science

02:42:20

today how are you turning all this science into really impact in a city context yes so so three comets first of course a big congratulations for for this very impressive work

02:42:34

I've not had the chance to to read your paper yet but but from the presentation I think it's not only very important I think we've heard presentations today showing that it is very important but I

02:42:47

also think it's important I mean in its own right it's also important because you as an organization is as understanding taking the next step towards application so you're going into

02:42:59

the area where you're trying to link the supply side of knowledge with the demand side of knowledge and this is entirely new area so to speak you're sort of moving from not just pushing the Earth's

02:43:13

boundaries but sorry to investigate Earth boundaries but also to push the boundary section and of course this is related to human behavior which is entirely different things because the Earth boundaries are

02:43:26

kind of naturally given whereas the boundaries of action are made by ourselves that's a very very deep and interesting problem that I hope that you will be be working on in in the future

02:43:37

and of course as as invited to this event as a potential user of this I think it is very interesting and very important so in that sense thank you for the for the invitation

02:43:51

thank you Morgan I have a comment yeah like in full disclosure I think I think I'm not only from the city of Copenhagen I'm I'm also trained as an as an economist

02:44:04

and I'm also a concerned Citizen and and from Monday to Thursday I'm very happy with that State of Affairs particularly in a city like like Copenhagen but from from Friday to Sunday I'm I'm full of

02:44:18

Doubt um and I think the Divergence is here where I think the Earth system boundaries is missing something and I think it's missing economics

02:44:29

and I think it reflects on what was said earlier today from also and from from Anna that that that that we need economics and this because

02:44:43

using the ipcc process as an example it's not that long ago that that it was publicly accepted that climate change is induced by humans it was only in the I

02:44:57

think in the 1990s or something like that and 10 years later in the US and once the general public accepted that this is humanly induced comes in the question so what does it

02:45:08

cost to get there and that moves in economics big time and until that time it was only the american-based work of Belmont house and others important in its own right with an important price

02:45:21

from this institution but but I think the same is going to happen here because now we've got the scientific based on this so the question is going to be what's it going to cost and and I think

02:45:33

you need to engage big time in what I would call the right economics which means to ask the questions what what does it cost but also what are the benefits what are the what's the cost of inaction

02:45:46

and and you used a scientists of working with non-linearities thresholds and tipping points with which economists in their models usually don't have so when they evaluate policies when they assess

02:45:58

projections of how is employment exports and imports Etc are going to go usually they don't engage in these kinds of things it will be very interesting to see you engage and perhaps teach my

02:46:11

economics colleagues how could this be done engage more on that and I think interesting stuff could emerge yeah and we are in the House of the Bayer Institute of ecological economics where they've tried really to get that

02:46:25

collaboration happening so exactly really interesting point and I think that the transformation Pathways of the Health commission will deal with economics as well we'll ask the Commissioners later on so thanks Martin

02:46:36

we'll move on okay so the next panelist is a lawyer and a specialist in indigenous peoples land rights environment and natural resources management she's the executive director of the tenure facility Nanette Royal

02:46:51

please big hand yeah [Applause] come and join me there was a lot of sort of thoughts on Justice access to resources Etc I guess that is right up

02:47:05

your alley what's your reactions so far yeah um deep gratitude yeah I'm speaking from my heart as an indigenous person and as the CEO the executive director of the

02:47:17

tenure facility we're based here in Stockholm finally our proactive data and our scientists are taking a stand and saying these are the metrics these are the

02:47:30

boundaries for safety for justice for people and Planet indigenous peoples and local communities have been saying this and that's why the attention facility is dedicated it's yeah Cedar started us and

02:47:42

now we're scaled uh you know to the ambition to recognize land rights of the forest Guardians indigenous peoples and local communities in tropical rainforest

02:47:54

in the Amazon basin in the Congo Basin and in tropical Asia so it is it is a a space now to begin to really act and work together

02:48:08

so I am very thrilled and would be very happy to establish conversations especially with the scientists who are here wonderful thanks

02:48:23

so if you were to give sort of one big advice to the scientists continuing now on the sort of Justice part what would that be where is that they really need to keep yeah yeah I can speak from from the

02:48:38

nature side because that's where our highest exposure is and uh to have nature ecosystems and uh working Landscapes with metrics is is really

02:48:50

amazing and to know that we breach those but to know that we're working with the people who are for 400 our data is 470 million of them occupy two-thirds of the

02:49:02

world's terrestrial Landscapes and 80 of our biodiversity are in these places and it overlaps 40 with protected areas so it is a lot uh to to work with and to

02:49:13

explore so I really think that this is where the space is right so yeah thanks a lot thanks all right so more panelists now are you ready for more panelists good

02:49:27

good good the technical director of the science-based targets Network she has a PhD from Duke University and Marsha Vijay please welcome up [Applause]

02:49:41

so I saw the launch of the science-based targets for nature the other day and I guess there are many things and links between the earth commission and what you're doing please what's your reaction

02:49:53

so far okay well thank you so much first um thank you to all of you and thank you for making space to discuss this important work and to think about the connections through to implementation and the sort of change we know is urgent

02:50:06

and necessary so first a huge congratulation to my colleagues at the Earth commission both those who are here and those who are everywhere and contributing to this work um this is really an important

02:50:19

scientific achievement in defining the Earth system boundaries for a safe and just future so really centering nature and people the science-based targets Network part of the Global Commons

02:50:32

Alliance that you heard Jane speak to is a collaboration of more than 80 non-profits and mission-driven organizations equipping companies and cities with a measurable actionable and

02:50:47

time-bound science-based targets for nature our work has started with companies as you already alluded to and the ambition of the first release of our work does align with this new Earth

02:50:58

system boundary science in some key ways first I think it's important to emphasize the principles that we're aligning on so first centering nature and people that's really at the core of

02:51:11

the work we do and I think another important note as a scientist is both organizations are not shying away from complexity this is a really complex problem the solutions are

02:51:23

also complex and we're not only saying and talking about this complexity and all the varied ways to think about interests and boundaries but we're also keeping it in a systemic perspective so really recognizing the inexorable

02:51:37

connections between climate and nature and people and nature and keeping that at the heart of what we're doing to think about kind of real concrete connections sorry in our methodology

02:51:51

another kind of key place is in the underlying quantification of the level of ambition of spatially explicit or location-specific targets which is what science-based targets for nature are

02:52:04

um that's most clearly seen within our fresh water Target setting methodology for freshwater quantity and quality so that's a kind of interesting place of connection there the other place is in the kind of

02:52:17

trajectory of actions that we're trying to enable and incentivize for companies to move towards being within be safe and just boundaries these actions need to be

02:52:29

taken in line with the mitigation hierarchy so reducing negative impacts on on the environment and Society before focusing on those positive actions like restoration that's something that I think can be

02:52:42

seen already in our freshwater Target setting methodologies as well as our land Target setting methodologies which focus on ecosystem preservation as well as restoration um so looking forward I'm really excited

02:52:56

about the coming collaborations with the Earth commissions so thinking about just in a note of humility acknowledging the gaps in both of our works seeking to address those particularly in the Marine realm which has already been

02:53:08

acknowledged but also really in centering the Justice work I think Beyond just noting how important it is to bring Justice in the conversation I'm really excited about the fact that there are now quantifiable metrics attached to

02:53:20

that Justice component that we can bring in as well as to think about how we're doing our work so to ensure that companies are setting effective and Equitable targets and to do that we'll have this challenging work of

02:53:33

translation ahead of us which is really a collaboration bringing together the applied sciences at the science-based targets Network as well as this fantastic theoretical and scientific Foundation from the earth commission so

02:53:45

thank you thanks big hand thank you so this is something that is related of course to the science-based targets for climate so is it like 3 000 companies or so who have set science-based targets

02:54:00

for climate right yeah I can't I don't have the precise number but it's something like that in rowing and now it is like 17 companies or so who will road test this first version

02:54:11

yeah and one Swedish company right don't quote me on that all right okay so really exciting and I know that many people are waiting for these science-based targets for nature because they have seen what the

02:54:26

science-based targets for climate can do so really looking forward to the coming sort of development of all this thanks all right so now it's time for a colleague of mine from the Stockholm

02:54:38

resilience Center she's the Director of Education and she has also founded the pontus Schultz foundation for more sustainable diverse and equal businesses and she's the program director for our

02:54:49

executive program in resilience thinking Where We Gather a lot of leaders from the businesses so you're like both scientists now and also a stakeholder because you know a lot about these companies that we work with listen

02:55:03

Schultz big hand please thank you thanks all and good to meet you all on stage here and um yeah I can at least say something about what I've learned from my interactions with CEOs of large companies over the last five years where

02:55:17

we've brought together 16 leaders a year into a program on planetary boundaries and Justice and how we can actually bring this private sector towards a place where they're contributing to a

02:55:30

positive future for people on the planet and I think it's been fascinating to see this development now what I hear from from and and the reason why we started engaging with the private sector at the Stockholm resilience Center you know in

02:55:44

addition to all of the work we're doing with local communities across the world and policy makers at different levels and so on is uh twofold one is of course that a lot of the transgressions we see

02:55:54

is driven by the private sector but also we see an increasing interest in the private sector in securing those systems that they all depend on that we all depend on the societies and the

02:56:08

ecosystems and in order to find a way to do that they want to base their strategies on science and so the CEOs need to be able to explain to their investors to their employees to their

02:56:21

customers and suppliers not to to mention The Regulators that are they're also always speaking to you know what needs to be done why does it need to be done and how can we do that and then

02:56:33

these Earth system boundaries helps them with that we we know from the planetary boundaries framework that it's it's been very helpful for them to move beyond the carbon dioxide to get a more systemic picture of all of the pressures that we

02:56:46

put on the planet but we also know that although that gives you know an aggregate understanding of the pressures it doesn't say anything about where do those pressures come from who is causing

02:56:58

them where do they appear who is impacted and so on and I think this does this aspect that when you now add and also the localization of you know where these impacts are and where the drivers come

02:57:12

from it will be very helpful for for this um leaders to be able to explain why this is so important and also what needs to be done about it what is their

02:57:23

responsibility uh as an organization in an in a sector the quantification of the metrics will be super helpful as well and the translation done through the science-based targets Network

02:57:36

um so I'm really excited about that I think that um what um what will be challenging and that remains of course

02:57:48

that not really part of this work is is to for them to find again you know what is it like the key message is again like we transgressed we we you know we it's beyond you know it's even worse than

02:58:00

than what we had what we need to do much more but for what for them what they need to understand is you know how can they act who can who can they collaborate with you know what what what is that the most important thing for

02:58:12

them for them to do so there I think we will need to continue that work yeah and from I what I've learned from sort of being with these CEOs is also that they don't really like to talk about

02:58:25

minimizing negative impacts they're much more interested in talking about how can you have a positive impact on something right yeah that's that's good point and I think but but it is also very important for them to minimize you know

02:58:37

significant harm and it's really part of business like you you're not allowed to to harm while you're doing your business but what this also can provide is sort of a framework for Innovation you know how can you positively contribute

02:58:50

positively to address some of these boundaries or address people's needs within those boundaries and so on and that's where some of the you know most the greatest creativity can come and of

02:59:02

course the private sector is full of of people who have a lot of dedication ambition their doers they have resources they have a lot of capacity and when they have a very robust framework to

02:59:16

sort of work within a lot can happen but then it's very important that that framework is based on the base best available science and one more thing of course is that then that also needs to be translated into regulations but I

02:59:29

think if we can sort of look at what's happened in the climates realm you know we can sort of show to this people that actually you know regulations will follow you know it takes a while but they will follow when we're all on the

02:59:42

same page thanks Lee sin big hand to listen so and after that the last panelist was the sustainability director of the year in

02:59:53

Sweden 2020 he is the chief sustainability officer at Max Burgers please Titanic big hand so okay

03:00:11

you are actually really trying to turn science into impact please tell us how do you do that and what are your general Reflections from listening to the scientists today first of all thank you thank you very

03:00:24

much you're making my job much easier my job is in one way to help this family-owned company to to change business transform and that means

03:00:37

I have to focus so much about the how and you're just making it much easier to me because you're defining the what what should change what should be done and I think in one way with planetary

03:00:49

boundaries you were kind of saying this is how you could run the planet with the Lancet guide you were saying this is how you can run the Food and Health and and now we're obviously in the corridor as I

03:01:03

heard about the safe and just so it makes my job so much easier because I believe the the real power how we drive change the most efficiently is

03:01:16

to not focus too much on the problems but not on on fighting the old but on building the new so you just give me much more freedom to do that because

03:01:29

you're defining where we should go so I think this can drive a lot of innovation um because Innovation for innovators we need to understand the problem really

03:01:42

really well uh so um for us we we understand that we're part of the problem that's not a kind of a surprise we said that since 2008 we

03:01:54

have have launched a number of plant-based and leftover vegetarian burgers we have increased sales of those with 900 percent it has regrouped reduced the full impact of the food with

03:02:05

30 percent uh per thousand kilocalories and that is is a strategy that we have working with that but now with all this

03:02:18

we can just relate our strategy to uh just society and all of that as well to to refine what what could we do more so I think this could drive innovation in so many businesses not just our own

03:02:32

but in in so many others because sustainability or the need for sustainability is really a driver of innovation globally all over so then we

03:02:44

change the focus as you were into from like where's the problem to where are the solutions and this just helps us go there and I also think this could be interesting

03:02:56

that it could increase the sense of urgency around all of these matters because we talked about the planet and some people don't hear people when they're here at the planet but now we're bringing people in more with Justice and

03:03:09

we have a lot of Justice fighter all over the world so I think also it could maybe change the narrative a little bit that this has just gotten even more important and uh

03:03:24

[Applause] I know I know you were probably the first in the world to have the carbon Footprints up on the menu for the this different dishes will you now have a

03:03:36

nutrient Footprints and water footprints on the menu as well after listening to the scientists today yeah I mean we've been thinking about nutrient footprint for a while um there's some legislative actions that

03:03:49

need to we need to find the right way to do that so it's really incredible and and in line with science um I think I mean imagining

03:04:01

um a a guest at a burger chain coming in maybe it's a soccer mom with two kids nine and seven and they just want to order and and they're looking at the menu and they're that's so how can they

03:04:15

get the right information at the right time that changes the behavior I think um it's like a three second window I have to work with so

03:04:28

um so I I'm gonna have to work a lot with emotions here yeah uh because we the emotions Drive our decisions facts are really good but emotions are strong so how can we do that how can we connect

03:04:41

this to emotions thanks okay thanks okay I'm thinking about you Martin we were talking about earlier on that you in your climate targets for Copenhagen try to include also consumption of different things so how do you work with companies

03:04:54

to make sure that more companies try to do with Kai and his company are doing well mostly on on the Innovation side actually because because right now kubernetes ambitious Targets on climate

03:05:06

but they're related to so its own territorial emissions so now we're working very hard to make new plans towards 20 30 20 35 which which is related to consumption-based emissions

03:05:18

and that's really really hard and that's exactly the kind of work here that we've been engaged with we've actually passed also the first edition of a donut for Copenhagen which is going

03:05:30

to be discussed by the City Council next week okay thanks but sorry but with companies mostly on the in on the Innovative side which is very interesting and and I think that's really good

03:05:42

because when some companies are starting to change the others see it so sometimes it's it's just good to go with the leaders and some at times it's good to go with the big ones it's different

03:05:54

strategies but leaders can often change faster and Versa I mean the science-based targets for nature working both with companies and cities so what do you have to say to Martin and Kai about how to use them now well I think

03:06:07

first that we have a lot to learn so our methodology for companies is much more developed so we've just done our first release for for companies but we're still bringing up our work on cities so um kind of inherent in the work we're

03:06:19

doing is understanding what levers are available to certain actors so in trying to figure out what the best science-based targets for cities are it may not be the same metric or indicators as we need for companies because it has

03:06:32

to be responsive to those actions so there's a lot of learning first to understand what has been done what works what are the different approaches to bring the kind of quantification elements into a methodology specific to

03:06:44

that actor yeah hmm now there's anything you want to add here from an indigenous and local perspective when talking about two cities and companies what do you think

03:06:55

we're in a corridor where they're in a working Landscapes and you know natural ecosystems and both are occupied by Peoples right and what's important is that I think it emphasizes indigenous

03:07:08

peoples have location so they're on site they are uh much more able to navigate monitoring and second they have relationships so not just within themselves but with nature we are very

03:07:22

much interconnected independent and therefore kinships are very important that and then there is the the level of value so the value is stewardship the value is

03:07:34

intergenerational survival as you only take what you can you don't take too much so this is why we're working with them for and then what's important is when I helped uh I was the one who I was

03:07:46

hosting a session at the cop 26 when there was a clear commitment by the governments to recognize land rights for Force Guardians so it is important this Collective you know stewarding is secure

03:08:01

and that's and that's where to answer your question the places where we can have conversations are in places where land stewardship land tenure is secure with companies otherwise they would say

03:08:13

like it's risky it's risky it's conflict it's conflict right so this is so important and now we're advancing 8.3 million hectares since we started here in Sweden are now secure right in the 26

03:08:26

countries where we're operating and the way we invest is serious one million dollar a year committing up to five years or ten years so we have right now 24 million this year and next year it

03:08:38

would be 34 million that we will commit and where are we getting this funding from the commitments right from the pledges and we give 80 percent of it down to directly to indigenous peoples

03:08:49

so it is less risky in these places for other sectors to come in and look right and so where's that conversation going so I think this is the challenge now it's action and it's action with the change agents I was very happy that you

03:09:03

were saying it Jane it is the change agents with clear rights and that's where spaces yeah mrts is this something you see in your work as well that the the issues that Nanette is talking about

03:09:14

right now is taking more plays in the climate negotiations um the easy answer is yes and no um because I mean I I think also what we're seeing increasingly as we're

03:09:27

progressing on climate action that these potential conflicts between on the one hand I mean I think quite clearly climate and biodiversity will become more apparent and it will be upon us as

03:09:39

policy makers because but also on practitioners to find ways forward to sort of consolidating those sometimes conflicting goals I mean just to take the obvious example if you're constructing wind Parks you need a lot

03:09:51

of land uh and how do you sort of reconcile that with with land rights then uh so I mean we we have to progress on how to reconcile those to potential uh con you know conflicting

03:10:04

interests which will become more apparent as we need more electricity and we need to supply more electricity to people who don't have electricity today I mean and the same goes for solar Park so I think that's something which we

03:10:16

where we need to be having this kind of conversation even more intensely both on a global scale but even more maybe more importantly on the national level listen what do you think the next sort of round of CEOs that will come to the

03:10:29

education you have what will you say to them about the Earth system boundaries will that make it their sort of next board meeting more complex or will it help them well I think you know clarification is

03:10:43

always good like an advancement of knowledge and understanding and and um I think it's it's about how we how we explain the interactions between those boundaries what they actually are and what they can help you with but I think

03:10:54

a key message that has emerged you know stronger and stronger is that for carbon dioxide you have you can have a sort of a global measurement and you know it doesn't matter where in the world you're you're sort of emitting it you can leave

03:11:06

the compensation or investments in nature-based Solutions and so on again you need to know the place what is happening there how can you work on that in a way that is supportive towards the the people living there and the other organisms so I think

03:11:19

um I think that those two aspects the justice and the or the and the connection to people and the connection to place will be difficult for them but also helpful because it's been a bit fuzzy to many of them how they can

03:11:32

translate planetary boundaries into targets and actions and so on yeah and that work is now you know more and more rigorous but it's also a Learning Journey where we all need to work

03:11:44

together like we cannot come with those final answers as scientists on how that should be done for everyone yeah and probably there will be some help now from the science space targets for nature with materiality analysis along

03:11:57

complex value chain change and include many of these aspects going Beyond climate and also include other things and then I have to say again you know this target Olympics I think it was nice it was a

03:12:08

passion said it that also many of these companies are now sort of Beyond like okay we've set the targets but now it's really you know what are we doing what is prioritized what helps you know what what is cost efficient to do and so on that's where we need so much more work

03:12:21

also because you can always try and sharpen targets but it's really what you're doing that mattress the planet doesn't care about our targets if they're just papers yeah we're having too much fun and we're

03:12:35

lagging behind in this in the program so I will just give you uh sort of a last take home message uh a chance to come with a last take-home message on what you have learned today from listening to

03:12:48

the Earth system boundaries or some kind of key insights that you want people to keep in mind when they leave this room who wants to start what is yes I think I'll go for the same kind of messages that we use in the on

03:13:02

the global conversation that's urgency and opportunity the urgency based on science which obviously here again today but also the opportunities and I think many of the solutions which have been put forward here point to the opportunities but what also when we

03:13:14

speak about the opportunities is very much what business brings and the kind of Business Solutions which are out there you know like the ipcc says there are solutions in every sector to to limit warming to 1.5 within this decade

03:13:26

so let's make best use of those uh by bringing all this work together thanks awesome well I think I think it's important to recognize that that I think most of the people in this room we're already convinced we have a problem that

03:13:39

we need to act but I think there are a lot of people out there that don't yet understand and accept the premise so I think it's very important to communicate to everyone why this is important and why action is important

03:13:53

timeline trust and transparency this timeline you just said we we're given 10 years by ipcc it's important to act so where the standing forests are where

03:14:05

nature is still intact let's keep it and restore it and then trans trust is so important we work together we find Solutions and really act and stop

03:14:18

talking too much and the third is uh yeah the the metrics is very important for transparency thanks Marcia please I guess that the hard work begins now

03:14:31

you know we have we have these quantifications from the earth commission we have the methodologies from the science-based targets network but it's about embedding in place embedding in rights and knowledge um as well as kind of ensuring that

03:14:44

these aren't empty empty targets and empty science but that we actually have the transformative change we need thanks Lisa and I'm thinking about framed creativity that's you know ideally you know if we share a frame

03:14:56

then we can unleash that enormous creativity that we have as a species and the collaborative capacity as well and you know believing in that we actually all want to secure future generations

03:15:08

and even you know the fly that has been you know represented in the biosphere in this room um you know and and their siblings I think I think you know but we need a shared frame of what what

03:15:22

the challenge is and how we can address it and then within that you know hopefully we can be creative together thanks Lisa I'm really glad we had a living part of the biosphere as well not

03:15:33

only did that the coral that I brought and no one has killed it that's also great fly on the wall right yeah okay yeah if I ask you to tell a story any story

03:15:45

maybe nothing comes up but if I tell you that it has to include a Norwegian mother uh 400 kilos of potatoes and a broken down car you will have a lot of ideas

03:15:57

and I think what we learned here is that there's so many limitations to sustainability we we saw a new one here and limitations is really the mother of creativity so I see enormous amount of

03:16:12

potential Innovation coming out of this thank you very much thank you all [Applause] thanks all and I really really hope that we can turn all this beautiful science into some real impact so we don't stand

03:16:26

here 20 years in the future and see all these curves going in the wrong direction again we all will stiffen that I think thanks to all and the big hand again to the panel good job thanks

03:16:40

thank you all right it's been a long afternoon Maya come and help me what's happening what are we doing now what are we doing

03:16:53

now we actually do have a little bit of time for a q a we can probably do five minutes so if there is anything that anybody is burning to ask and we can refer to you know any of the speakers

03:17:05

today then please put your hand up and one of the team can come over and I mean there's been so many interesting presentations and the discussions going on so we apologize for

03:17:18

not having more time for questions right now but there will be a mingle afterwards so exactly approach people there if you don't want to approach them now with a question but if there are a couple of questions please anyone

03:17:33

hey hello hi uh my question is directed to Kai I wanted to know and also to the other people who address the problems with Agriculture and meat consumption and I

03:17:52

wanted to know why so far we've talked so much about the consumption of meat and he also brought up the example of the woman coming to choose which Burgers they would they would choose and I would

03:18:05

like to know why we're focusing on the woman rather than the supplier of the of the meat so instead of regulating consumption we should also regulate the

03:18:16

production yeah and you changed your name from Max hamburgers to Max Burgers right yeah we changed that because we realized that we can sell so many good things between two Paris that doesn't have to

03:18:30

have a high impact but we we I mean the regulation part is what politicians do I think um and what we can do as a company is to

03:18:42

ask ourselves can we create a Better Business can we use our you know the The Habit we have of trying to solve problems in a good way

03:18:54

um so we can of course sometimes say we can't use those suppliers they are not good enough but we're also in in the business of trying to make a living so how can we

03:19:09

how can we at least explore if we can do it in a better way I think that's the the main um responsibility of any company and if you want to go further you're you're pushing for it as well but you at least

03:19:22

have to ask that question so it's it's in in if politicians regulated more we would have to do less I think that that's also connected you had a question thanks yes not like to respond to your

03:19:43

question as well so it's come up in the global biodiversity framework and one of the targets was was pointing the finger at individual consumers to make better choices um but it's really about the system that they have to work in so the production

03:19:56

systems have to give them the right choices and I think that's a classic technique used in industry um to to push the responsibility onto somebody else and so really seeing that we have to shift the system the

03:20:09

Transformations have to provide better options for people to to live better lives more sustainable lives so pushing in that direction is certainly a part of the messaging and the analysis we'd like to move forward as well

03:20:23

thanks anymore there's so many brilliant people in the room I guess you have questions um the point I would like to make is that we are at a pretty unique place

03:20:44

in uh human development with so many different things are gelling so the concern of the environment the use of social media

03:20:56

a greater consciousness of Youth and a better sense of the direction that we're going so just as David has mentioned in one area something is happening

03:21:08

um under the ISO standards we just reviewed ISO 14015 on environmental due diligence so you have the standards approach you

03:21:21

have the Global framework you have ipcc you have impasse you're all sort of working circling around this dead carcass of an earth we have

03:21:34

and soon or later they will Resurrected so from a from a position of extreme negativity I'm saying there's hope and this is the time thank you

03:21:49

thanks for that that's worth a big hand I guess [Applause] we painted an image that was really depressing first but you saved it thanks yes

03:22:00

new questions over here sorry Nucky my squeeze Pals thank you if you could just say your name as well okay hi Penelope Erickson and exponential roadmap initiative so I have a question with

03:22:14

climate I think it made all the difference when starting to discuss halving missions every decade from coming from talking about temperature at least if you're a company because what does it mean that a temperature level

03:22:26

so that is a question for all the other boundaries could we find similar ways of having a simple rule of pumps which are expressed in an actionable way I think

03:22:39

that will make all of a difference that's a good one I think we will save that one for you on later on when you come down and close this right you want I would I will ask the question again to

03:22:51

repeat it for you so let's um thank you ignorance so we don't have time here a great day and great report looking forward to see how this will be

03:23:04

shared across media and internet one question I have though is that I mean we have many problems now we have more problems and Justice I think everyone in this room thinks that Justice is

03:23:17

important I'm in the communication field and I try to get people on board in in the environmental climate agenda and I mean not everyone out there policy makers are positive above the board

03:23:31

Justice do we really need to talk about Justice isn't enough with the planetary boundary and if the justice is lower when the planetary boundary shouldn't we just lower and have the

03:23:45

same goal like it's the same for justice and planetary I think it's a challenge to communicate this Justice and get the people on board that are more conservative and don't see

03:23:59

the word to be a just they don't like that word and we need them on board okay thanks I think both these questions we will actually leave to you either and Johan right so how do we

03:24:14

because they are going to wrap up and I think how do we make these uh sort of Earth system boundaries more actionable for companies in different ways and do we really need Justice boundary or not

03:24:26

so we'll leave it to them right because they're going to wrap up now they are going to wrap up both come to the stage please that would be fantastic you're when you eat the please give them a big hand and hope you can answer all

03:24:37

questions now thank you very much it's been a fascinating afternoon um let's take justice first because that's the more difficult question I think 30 years ago when I started working on

03:24:55

my PhD thesis on climate change in developing countries I was writing a lot about Justice in it and my supervisor said take out the word justice you know use equity and maybe make it just focus on the empirics talk about not-south

03:25:08

issues don't don't make it so normative and I think that we've come a long way now that we can at least talk about Justice openly in a science paper or and get it published in nature and have also

03:25:20

the editorian chief of nature talk about it so we've come a long way with Justice and bringing it on to the storyline I think people are much more willing to talk about injustices and there is a

03:25:32

general speak General Degree of consensus that if you see somebody dying from something or you see somebody displaced that you can see in Injustice and so somehow creating that emotional

03:25:44

link which you were talking about how do we communicate this emotionally I think it's really important to create a bond with people and to show that these injustices are not just happening somewhere far away in Bangladesh on the

03:25:57

Maldives but can also happen right here because of the impacts of climate change on people here so I think somehow we have to make that connection between injustices globally and that injustices that might happen here because of

03:26:10

climate change or biodiversity loss or whatever and we have to make that emotional connection that's the next step in the story but I think I think it's really important to bring the justice issue in because if we evade the justice issue we will keep postponing

03:26:22

and postponing this discussion add infinitum into the future and we've already noted that without um without taking Justice into account it's impossible to live in a safe Planet because you can't force the rest of the

03:26:35

world not to use their fossil fuels so just to give you an example more than 80 of the fossil fuels that remain are in the developing world and if we try to force them not to use it without taking some degree of Justice into our

03:26:47

narrative is not going to happen so we do need to bring Justice in on board on talking about making things actionable uh I think um we need to look at action at all

03:26:59

levels our current story focuses on cities and industries but um uh and that's clearly true that industry will focus much more on how to change consumer Behavior but governments need to also focus on how to change

03:27:12

industry behavior and maybe leveling the playing field for industry in some ways so that there is some degree of option for industry to move forward but very

03:27:23

concretely uh a Target like 25 percent um uh more nature in every square kilometer is something that we can all relate to we can all think about how can I had 25 more nature in my own compound

03:27:36

in my own house in my own neighborhood you know so these are things that can be done uh the the other Target for biosphere is more difficult for us to do at a individual level but there are things the groundwater talk it is

03:27:49

something that is quite close to us for Farmers so how can we organize that in the food industry or in the farming industry so I think there are ways to translate that into everyday approaches for people but

03:28:02

um uh I just want to come back and say I hope that through adopting the Justice approach we don't put people off we bring them on board maybe we shouldn't use another book

03:28:18

because I think I yeah so we have to find a way to meet going to the hearts and the emotions of the Republicans all right [Applause]

03:28:38

yeah so um well a few comments on on this really important reflection on on Justice and perhaps just just first a little reminder and don't take this as a as a kind of um trying to escape or a

03:28:53

defense speech but but what we've tried to do with the Earth commission is is not to provide the world with scalable solutions that are implementable across Republicans or businesses or cities

03:29:06

we're providing the scientific assessment and then there are a number of steps and she may really show them very clearly before it is actually implementable in in Stockholm or in New

03:29:18

Delhi or with the Unilever um or or in Washington at the administration so it's it's a question here of recognizing that we're trying to stay true to let's say an ipcc type

03:29:31

philosophy that we're trying to provide the state of knowledge and deliver that in ways that can then be picked up by other stakeholders to work towards a translation operationalization so so

03:29:44

that's I think it's really important because otherwise we'll be accused of of opinionating the whole agenda we're really trying to be objective in that assessment then

03:29:55

um my view on on Justice and Android and I've had many discussions on this is that I come back to the point I made earlier that I find it very assuring that the social science assessment through the

03:30:07

the very very rich framework that we've applied with the intergenerational the intergenerational the inter-species Justice definition or significant harm lands at having equal assessment on

03:30:19

safety and justice for many of the boundaries so you can run with them directly you don't even have to use the word justice actually because they're they're actually the same scientific assessment

03:30:30

and so we join and I hold hands and we land at the same conclusion and that that I think and it's a three-year Journey we've done and we do not agree with each other on on on on all these

03:30:43

issues so it's I think it's quite remarkable actually that we've come to this point you you can you don't want to hear our our debates that we've had during during this this journey which

03:30:56

has been an enormous Learning Journey for for I think for for both sides so that is something to to bring with us but but I'm actually on your side in the sense that we also I mean this is beyond

03:31:08

the Earth commission to actually be quite pragmatic and quite practical um I wanted to to share with you for example that the apart from the the science-based target Network and vasha what what you

03:31:21

shared with us here the world Business Council for sustainable development for example the world's largest network of multinational companies are standing there demanding science-based targets

03:31:33

Beyond climate it's it's an enormous um you know it's they're ready for it they they're kind of wondering where are you with the Earth commission why can't you deliver these numbers we want them we want to go beyond carbon we recognize that across the value chain we need to

03:31:46

take responsibility for water for nitrogen for phosphorus for land for biodiversity so there is a demand out there and they are definitely not ready for justice they they want to have

03:31:57

numbers that they can trust from let's say like the climate science equivalent and and we have to teach them I think we have to really go into a discussion on what does it mean to also uh what's the

03:32:12

why is it valuable for a company to also bring Injustice because it gives you a larger chance of having stable conditions in the economies where your markets are because you don't want to have significant harm pulling the rug

03:32:25

under the feet of all your customers which is actually what Justice does if you do not take it seriously but I think that that's something that we still have to have to work on and that absolutely

03:32:37

uh and a Davos at the world economic Forum we were really so surprised that people were so interested in knowing and these are business people we're talking about who wanted to know about the safe and just boundaries and the feedback we

03:32:49

got at Davos was that people found it very interesting to understand the relationship between social and economic aspects so there are people who are open-minded and are listening and and those are the people we're trying to

03:33:01

communicate to so then they exist believe it or not the open-minded Business Leaders out there so and then just just a a final point on this about being actionable

03:33:15

well I think it's easy to forget in the frustration that things are moving too slow what amazing progress we've made in the climate domain that here comes 30 years

03:33:27

of a six ipcc assessments landing at a science-based boundary on 1.5 degrees Celsius translated to a carbon budget translated to carbon law giving us a mitigation Pathways that ends up in the

03:33:41

green deal and the fit 455 you have over 60 countries in the world with Net Zero Pathways you have over a thousand companies 2 000 companies in the spti if I recall right

03:33:54

3 000 even Patrick yeah I mean this is this is what we need to do on the other Earth system boundaries as well and and of course it is a challenge to get those actionable steps taken but I think that

03:34:07

what we've tried to do with the Earth commission is really identify indicators particularly on the bias for integrity I think Peter gave a fantastic presentation here showing you know how this can be actionable twenty percent of

03:34:19

each square kilometer of managed nature needs to be kept which is with its ecological functions at a semi-natural state I mean that's that's very workable with it's very different to our

03:34:31

Extinction rate quantification in the original planetary boundaries for example so I think we've come a big step forward to provide Humanity with science that can be translated into workable

03:34:43

targets for Humanity's future and I think this seminar to me I don't know what we're doing here by the way is it a q a or are we closing but anyway but but if we're closing I want to thank you I really want to thank you all for for

03:34:57

your patience and listening to this very complex piece of work that we've been struggling with and we're so proud of coming to this point and we really hope that this is a starting point for a journey where we can really become

03:35:09

stewards for people and planet in a fully integrated manner to the Future and just a final remark on the fact that the Earth commission is unique in the sense that it's been a very constructive stress factor on a scientists to be part

03:35:22

of the Global Commons Alliance that we've had always you know peaking around the corner the science-based target Network the Earth HQ all these Business Leaders and philanthropy saying we want

03:35:35

the numbers we want to act we want you on the ground it's been tremendously difficult for us but it's I think it's been very healthy we've been forced all the time to think about what next and you've helped us there today thank you

03:35:54

thank you everyone thank you Rita for leading this commission and leading the day starting and ending the day but you're not ending yet we will also have give a big hand for when they brought gate who is the director of the future

03:36:07

Earth Hub here in Stockholm you can go with mine my will advance the slide yes thank you thank you everyone I'm it's been such an exciting day and I'm delighted that so

03:36:21

many people still here at the end of the day so thank you for your for your interest I'm I'd like to say a few thank yous first thank you um your Android and Professor kinderha who isn't here today

03:36:34

for your leadership as you indicated Joan this has not been an easy Journey but um it's been a super exciting challenging journey and at the at now the paper is published so let's

03:36:47

celebrate [Applause] thank you to all of the speakers and panelists today well thank you to the huge team behind the Earth commission as

03:37:01

being mentioned today this more than 50 authors on this paper that includes experts from around the world but also a number of of behind the scenes experts more junior scientists and many of you

03:37:14

are here please wave your hands everyone who's been involved in this nature paper today it's um we've got many in the room great thank you

03:37:25

and I have to give a huge shout out to our corresponding author who Steve laid here [Applause] yeah Steve has done the most fantastic

03:37:40

job meticulously coordinating all of the inputs in the multiple edits to this paper so thank you Steve for a really really fantastic work so again thank you all for for joining

03:37:54

us um I as many people have said this journey is collaborative collaborative within science and collaborative with enduser Society on action so really

03:38:07

let's collaborate um I'd like to also thank our funders there are many funders behind this effort who've also collaborated um together to to help support this and

03:38:20

last but not least I would like to thank the team who have organized this Symposium particularly Lisa yorkibson very um very much behind the scenes Master my name is

03:38:33

Cecilia Maya and the full team and Frederick also for your role in in moderating and and um making this happen so as I said the um the paper's now

03:38:49

published let's celebrate there is a mango in the foyer for the next hour um but also we wanted to take the opportunity to take a photo of the authors the those who are behind this

03:39:00

paper on the front steps so the rest of you get first first in the queue for the mingle but if a lot of the authors can go to the front steps for a photo immediately thank you

03:39:14

[Applause]